Doesn't China already have PaddlePaddle?
Sure, but all of these chip makers have their own library and language that they claim is compatible or close to CUDA. China needs to have probably 1 common set of AI language that's supported by all the chip makers. There are other things but all the chip makers can learn from cloud companies on what's needed. I didn't expect them to be able to get everyone in the same room, but looks like Chinese gov't pushed everyone together.
Under normal circumstances, you really wouldn't see one design shop working with other design shops. But the sanctions really scared a lot of these guys. And on top of that, there is enough of a pie for everyone to share. Once China mobile/Huawei/Alibaba get things worked out with Chinese chip designers, then they can really just deploy them everywhere and no more Nvidia for you.
Nonetheless, if any Chinese company in the semiconductor industry still has any trace of US components in their supply chain, or US citizens in key positions, they should immediately seek alternatives.
You want Chinese Americans to be able to work in China. You want to make it easier for them to give up their American citizenship and get status in HK or Singapore or Canada or one of these other countries so that they can work for Chinese firms even if they feel mainland is not a place they want to raise their family. China needs to set policies that encourage rather than exclude talent.
...but we are still far from US suppliers.
Here the 2021 revenues and share of China market on total revenues
AMAT $23.063B * 29% = $6,68 B
Lam Research $14.62B * 35% = $5,12 B
KLA $6.919B * 31% = $2,14 B
For a total of $14B, almost 4 times more than Chinese top manufacturers.
All three US toolmakers have announced revenue hits for 2023, but much lower compared to their current turnover...I'd think they have been too optimistic....their future in China is doomed. Within a couple of years it will be hard for them to sell anything new in China. Eventually their business will end up in just servicing and spare parts for current installed base.
OTH these very big numbers once again show us the appalling size of US origin equipment in China. China gave US the keys to be blackmailed and abused at will.
In hindsight is easy to spot the gross miscalculation that occurred here. US didn't change now, they have always been like this. The almost 2 decades at the cross of the century of relative market fairness and normal business relations were only temporary, supported by the idea that globalization would have been mostly in the interest of US. Once US realized it was not, they resolutely and unilaterally scrapped it.
Yes, the Chinese manufacturers still have a long way to go. That's probably why the US politicians suddenly got scared at the news of a massive Chinese "CHIPS Act". Part of that money can go toward investing in facilities required for expansion and the hiring/training needed for expansion. NAURA and others will need to grow at like 60% a year for several years to be able to mostly capture the Chinese market.
Let's say they were at $3 billion last year * 1.6 -> $5 billion this year -> $8 billion next year -> $12 billion in 2024.
