A couple of good tweets from David Goldman
Read the nikkei article with quotes from McCaul
It's unclear to me if these guys are stupid or just saying things for political reasons. Anyone with half a brain knows that China can produce all the old chips they need for the military. It seems to me they all want to sound tough about China, but are also freaked out that the October sanctions really haven't worked at all so far. The old adage is that "if we can just sanction harder, we will win" seems to be at play here. They are trying really hard to see what else they can sanction, but are grasping at straws when it comes to export control.
Also, since we already posted the old chip expansion freakout article, I will say that Goldman seems to have noticed the same freakout as we have.
think about it from their prospective. How is YMTC still able to come out with 232 layer NAND flash after it got sanctioned. Why hasn't it collapsed? This must be killing the hawks.
The focus on leading edge tech is because China needs to make sure it can still function in the even that export controls are expanded to include full ban on all chips from America. At this point, the natsec hawks look like they are willing to destroy their own industry to stop China's AI/cloud computing/data center growth. Who knows, maybe the next ban is that they won't allow any smartphone chips to be exported to China with American tools or android/iPhone OS to be used by Chinese smartphones. That way, they can cripple China's smartphone industry. These are all things that Chinese gov't need to think about and aggressively support SMIC/Huahong in building capacity up for.
1 trillion RMB isn't just going to be aiding mature fab expansion. mature fabs don't need that much Capex. A lot of that will be toward advanced chip production imo.
Read the nikkei article with quotes from McCaul
It's unclear to me if these guys are stupid or just saying things for political reasons. Anyone with half a brain knows that China can produce all the old chips they need for the military. It seems to me they all want to sound tough about China, but are also freaked out that the October sanctions really haven't worked at all so far. The old adage is that "if we can just sanction harder, we will win" seems to be at play here. They are trying really hard to see what else they can sanction, but are grasping at straws when it comes to export control.
Also, since we already posted the old chip expansion freakout article, I will say that Goldman seems to have noticed the same freakout as we have.
think about it from their prospective. How is YMTC still able to come out with 232 layer NAND flash after it got sanctioned. Why hasn't it collapsed? This must be killing the hawks.
I think I've been posting their mature tech expansion a lot. it's clearly an area of great success for China and will bear fruit in the next 2 to 3 years. And the large stimulus here will help not just the fab themselves but also the tool making industry.
The focus on leading edge tech is because China needs to make sure it can still function in the even that export controls are expanded to include full ban on all chips from America. At this point, the natsec hawks look like they are willing to destroy their own industry to stop China's AI/cloud computing/data center growth. Who knows, maybe the next ban is that they won't allow any smartphone chips to be exported to China with American tools or android/iPhone OS to be used by Chinese smartphones. That way, they can cripple China's smartphone industry. These are all things that Chinese gov't need to think about and aggressively support SMIC/Huahong in building capacity up for.
1 trillion RMB isn't just going to be aiding mature fab expansion. mature fabs don't need that much Capex. A lot of that will be toward advanced chip production imo.