Chinese semiconductor industry

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Alb

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Yes but where's your evidence? You keep saying this and that, but anyone can come on here and say anything. Where is your source that they "started mass production"?



What do you think? There's no need to ask WTAN. Of course it will adversely hurt their progress. There is no way they can do such small nodes without American supplies. Even if they already have the capital equipment, they still need the support, materials, and licenses to make it work.
7nm does not need EUV and ASML has said they will continue to supply SMIC with DUV scanner capable of 7nm. Etching and deposition toos from Lam and Amat can be replaced by equivalent tools from chinese or Japanese companies. Amec etcher is cspable of 5nm. Naura and Shenyang Piotech have deveploped thin fim deposition tools down to 5/7nm. Most of the materials come from Japan. Please let me know which semi tool capable of 7nm is produced ecclusively by US firms?
 

Alb

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7nm does not need EUV and ASML has said they will continue to supply SMIC with DUV scanner capable of 7nm. Etching and deposition toos from Lam and Amat can be replaced by equivalent tools from chinese or Japanese companies. Amec etcher is cspable of 5nm. Naura and Shenyang Piotech have deveploped thin fim deposition tools down to 5/7nm. Most of the materials come from Japan. Please let me know which semi tool capable of 7nm is produced ecclusively by US firms?
From Asml q3 transcript:

Regarding U.S. export rules to China, we are aware of the requirements set by the U.S. Commerce Department for specific companies in China, and as such, according to the current regulation, ASML can continue to ship DPV lithography system from the Netherlands.

Operator

Our next question is from Mr. David Mulholland. Please state your company name followed by your question.

David Mulholland

Hi. I am Dave Mulholland from UBS. And I just want to follow up on the comments you made around China, Peter. Obviously, it’s clear you’re still able to ship particularly if it’s out of the Netherlands to particular customers. But for those that have been facing sanctions from everything we’ve read, are you assuming any shipments into those customers for 2021, because whilst you may be able to ship yourself, they will obviously face some indirect impact if they’re unable to buy from some of the other semi cap equipment space? And I’ve got a follow up afterwards.


Peter Wennink

Yeah. I think it’s a good question, David. When we talk to our Chinese customers and you have to understand that, when they look at some of the other process tools, there are some alternatives here and there is a lot of tools in Japan, when you talk about EUV or you talk about deposition tools. There is a European company, which is in Singapore that can be an alternative. So on metrology, there are alternatives both in the Netherlands and outside the U.S., in Japan and even increasingly in other parts of the world.

So if you’re a Chinese company and there’s one thing that that the alternative is more difficult on and it’s on litho, yeah. So you just want to make sure that you get your litho tools. And of course, companies that are on a list, where under the current agreements, we cannot ship to, we won’t ship to. I mean, it’s -- there wasn’t our agreement, I mean, our -- we just have to go for and we have to look at those lists and we follow those lists.

But currently, the customer that we’ve been talking about our Logic customer, one of a major Logic customer in China actually allows order rules allow us to ship litho tools and it’s for those Chinese customers very important to actually get their litho tools and then find the solution for the other process tools, but litho is critical. It’s the most critical tool in your fab.

So it -- so that’s why it’s not change -- that’s why it’s not strange that they still talk to us and said, hey, just make sure that you ship us the tools that we need, because it all starts with -- in terms of CapEx, it is all starts with the most expensive tool in the fab and that litho.
 

Oldschool

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@WTAN

What would be the impact of Liang leaving+ export blacklist sanctions on SMIC's 7nm nodes and below? Would it adversely hurt their progress on these smaller nodes?

Also, how close is SMIC to developing and mass-producing 7nm nodes and below? Do you have any other sources I could read up on their progress?
The hiring of Cheng for his chiplet tech signals the company is going different direction.

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Oldschool

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The Chinese government clearly spells out complete self sufficency at 28nm first. Every equipment and chemicals. This way the country can still run regardless of any external sanctions. Should not depend on the whims of ASML whether it can sell a particular equipment to a particular company. Don't worry about 14nm, 7nm for now

28nm is the critical mark. 5g equipment still can run on it. Beidou runs on it. Desktop and laptop processor can still run on it. IoT still runs on it.
The basic functioning of the country runs on it.

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weig2000

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The Chinese government clearly spells out complete self sufficency at 28nm first. Every equipment and chemicals. This way the country can still run regardless of any external sanctions. Should not depend on the whims of ASML whether it can sell a particular equipment to a particular company. Don't worry about 14nm, 7nm for now

28nm is the critical mark. 5g equipment still can run on it. Beidou runs on it. Desktop and laptop processor can still run on it. IoT still runs on it.
The basic functioning of the country runs on it.

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It's important to set a 28nm self-sufficiency goal first, and then mobilize and coordinate the national resources to achieve the goal, instead of everyone in the supply chain going about their own company goals from 45nm to 3/5 nm. Once the 28nm goal is achieved, hopefully in 2-3 years, then entire Chinese semiconductor industry can pursue higher nodes technology. This would be much more effective and efficient investment strategy.
 

Oldschool

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I like to further a bit on the national strategy.
The 28nm silicon process is the foundation of the country.

After that it will be dual track.
The first track is 14nm, 7nm and EUV like the west.

The second track is carbon based transistor. There's already a 8 inch prototype for that. If carbon based IC takes off China will ditch western style silicon tech development because it will be able to go sub 2nm.
 

Oldschool

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It's important to set a 28nm self-sufficiency goal first, and then mobilize and coordinate the national resources to achieve the goal, instead of everyone in the supply chain going about their own company goals from 45nm to 3/5 nm. Once the 28nm goal is achieved, hopefully in 2-3 years, then entire Chinese semiconductor industry can pursue higher nodes technology. This would be much more effective and efficient investment strategy.
Correct. Its very doable goal for 28nm.
Once it's achieved, China can say its basic self sufficient at IC even without the more sophisticated nodes.
 

horse

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It's important to set a 28nm self-sufficiency goal first, and then mobilize and coordinate the national resources to achieve the goal, instead of everyone in the supply chain going about their own company goals from 45nm to 3/5 nm. Once the 28nm goal is achieved, hopefully in 2-3 years, then entire Chinese semiconductor industry can pursue higher nodes technology. This would be much more effective and efficient investment strategy.
It is probably far more important to add capacity, to build more fabs inside China.

Chinese companies backed by private capital should be allowed to pursue their own interests.

It is a race to get the best product out to the Chinese buyers of chips, then that fabs reaps all the rewards.

That is far more motivation to succeed than whatever the government can promise. The only thing the CCP government should do is put in restrictions on Chinese firms using American tech in the semi-conductor industry.
 

Alb

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It is probably far more important to add capacity, to build more fabs inside China.

Chinese companies backed by private capital should be allowed to pursue their own interests.

It is a race to get the best product out to the Chinese buyers of chips, then that fabs reaps all the rewards.

That is far more motivation to succeed than whatever the government can promise. The only thing the CCP government should do is put in restrictions on Chinese firms using American tech in the semi-conductor industry.
Huawei needs 7nm now otherwise its smartphone business is dead. Ciami
 
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