Chinese semiconductor industry

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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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hvpc said:
funny you mention that. If you recognize this to be the norm, how do you support any claim that the fist immersion scanner SMEE ever build could be good enough to already support 28nm HVM, on its first attempt no less? just curious what your latest assessment is on SMEE?
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First public release immersion scanner may not be the first ever built.

I have nothing to say about SMEE because it is outside my regime of knowledge and they haven't updated their website in over 10 years. But companies can change quite a bit in 10 years.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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mst said:

China Buys Fewer Chip-Making Machines as US Restrictions Start​

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this differs from ijiwei article for October.
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I'm not sure how these things are all tallied. But here is the important part.
Shipments from the Netherlands doubled in the month. That is where ASML Holding NV, the leading producer of chip-making equipment, is headquartered.
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US equipments down. Japanese equipment are down, probably because they haven't been winning the bids before. ASML machines are up. Probably because other fabs are cutting back on their orders, so SMIC and other fabs have been able to take some of those earlier slots. I don't see any reason to believe in these comments that SMIC is somehow adding $1.6 billion Capex for fabs that have been planned for years now. They are using that money to take near term slots and fast track orders.
 
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As far as ASML not following US Sanctions, anybody who has followed US Sanctions over the past five years should have no doubt what ASML will ultimately do. It is not a matter of using US tech; the US has basically sanctioned any country of the party doing business with Iran in most sectors of its economy, and while China clearly violates that via clandestine transactions, almost no one else does. If Congress needs to pass a statute sanctioning ASML or any party that does business with it if ASML will not follow US dictates, there is no doubt that will happen and Biden will sign it. I am not saying that this will be the final outcome, only that ASML has absolutely no say in this and will follow whatever the US dictates.
 
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henrik

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Schmoe said:
As far as ASML not following US Sanctions, anybody who has followed US Sanctions over the past five years should have no doubt what ASML will ultimately do. It is not a matter of using US tech; the US has basically sanctioned any country of the party doing business with Iran in most sectors of its economy, and while China clearly violates that via clandestine transactions, almost no one else does. If Congress needs to pass a statute sanctioning ASML or any party that does business with it if ASML will not follow US dictates, there is no doubt that will happen and Biden will sign it. I am not saying that this will be the final outcome, only that ASML has absolutely no say in this and will follow whatever the US dictates.
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US sanctions cannot be enforced at all. All countries have alternatives for trade.
 
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Schmoe

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I wish that were true, but can you name a single instance of a "Western" corporation violating US sanctions (not counting articles on companies that were fined for trying to do so)? Consider the case below, and why would ASML be any different? Why did TSMC cut off Huawei?
Just to be clear, US Sanctions prevent a corporation from using any Western financial institution, so ASML would need to find a way to do business without a bank account from any Western country.

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henrik

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Schmoe said:
I wish that were true, but can you name a single instance of a "Western" corporation violating US sanctions (not counting articles on companies that were fined for trying to do so)? Consider the case below, and why would ASML be any different? Why did TSMC cut off Huawei?
Just to be clear, US Sanctions prevent a corporation from using any Western financial institution, so ASML would need to find a way to do business without a bank account from any Western country.

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ASML supplies tsmc, which supplies apple, amd and nvida etc. How is the US going to sanctions asml, when US companies need to do business with asml? Which western financial institution would care, when Netherlands itself is a western country and all of them need to buy chips made with asml machines?
 
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Schmoe

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henrik said:
ASML supplies tsmc, which supplies apple, amd and nvida etc. How is the US going to sanctions asml, when US companies need to do business with asml? Which western financial institution would care, when Netherlands itself is a western country and all of them need to buy chips made with asml machines?
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I see what you are saying, but look at Nordstream 2. That was harmful to Germany, but yet the US imposed sanctions on entities constructing it. As for your argument on ASML being too integral to the Western economy to be sanctioned, the same could be said for TSMC, but they still buckled under the threat of US sanctions and cut off Huawei.
It is considered bad form to impose sanctions on Allies, but yet NS2 sanctions were imposed. Do not doubt the ruthlessness or harm that the US is willing to impose for spite, nor should anyone doubt US allies' willingness to inflict self-harm when push comes to shove.
 
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