Chinese semiconductor industry

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henrik

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I see what you are saying, but look at Nordstream 2. That was harmful to Germany, but yet the US imposed sanctions on entities constructing it. As for your argument on ASML being too integral to the Western economy to be sanctioned, the same could be said for TSMC, but they still buckled under the threat of US sanctions and cut off Huawei.
It is considered bad form to impose sanctions on Allies, but yet NS2 sanctions were imposed. Do not doubt the ruthlessness or harm that the US is willing to impose for spite, nor should anyone doubt US allies' willingness to inflict self-harm when push comes to shove.
The whole world is going to unite with reverse sanctions on the US. The US will just isolated itself when that happens. NS2 sanctions are stupid, because they can easily sanction comparable US companies. The world is much larger than the US.
TSMC certainly has the power to resist any US sanctions requirements, they understand that. It is impossible to sanction asml, tsmc and samsung at the same time. When local Chinese semiconductor machines become more advanced and as the world moves away from the $US, then yankees will be in trouble of their own making.
 
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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
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If the US manage to enforce the sanctions unilaterally or if they coerce Europe using the US made FDP rule, the Americans maybe are biting more than they can chew, because the Europeans can enforce their own FDP rule on U.S. companies, including to US weapon manufacturers if they want to stop the sales of weapon technologies to by example to Israel or Saudi Arabia to stop the bombings or events like that or to impose sanctions in US non traditional allies or stop the selling of certain technologies that the Europeans may think could be used to infringe rights base on their own standards. Of course U.S. politicians hypocrisy will show up and call Europeans extraterritoriality attempts "an attack on Murica sovereignty" "How dare this Europeans to do what we do".
Even Japan can use this rules to stop foreign companies using Japanese technology to stop selling to whatever country they think is insulting them, like South Korea.
Will basically open pandora box.​
 

mmbro

New Member
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As far as ASML not following US Sanctions, anybody who has followed US Sanctions over the past five years should have no doubt what ASML will ultimately do. It is not a matter of using US tech; the US has basically sanctioned any country of the party doing business with Iran in most sectors of its economy, and while China clearly violates that via clandestine transactions, almost no one else does. If Congress needs to pass a statute sanctioning ASML or any party that does business with it if ASML will not follow US dictates, there is no doubt that will happen and Biden will sign it. I am not saying that this will be the final outcome, only that ASML has absolutely no say in this and will follow whatever the US dictates.
The US will even break Dutch hands if need be to ban ASML sales to China. But China holds the key to everything, at least in short+mid term needs and solutions. China today, has enough litho machines to operate its lines for at least 2 years, no? By then, SMEE should release its latest version. China doesn't even need 7nm chips, as 14nm is just fine and great for 90% of its needs. AI systems, for example, can work very well with 14nm chips.
 

mmbro

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The US will even break Dutch hands if need be to ban ASML sales to China. But China holds the key to everything, at least in short+mid term needs and solutions. China today, has enough litho machines to operate its lines for at least 2 years, no? By then, SMEE should release its latest version. China doesn't even need 7nm chips, as 14nm is just fine and great for 90% of its needs. AI systems, for example, can work very well with 14nm chips.
Just like the US gov doesn't really care if LAM etc go down the drain as long as China is stopped or even dead lol.. China doesn't care either if it exports zero chips as long as its internal needs are fulfilled, right?
 

olalavn

Senior Member
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The US will even break Dutch hands if need be to ban ASML sales to China. But China holds the key to everything, at least in short+mid term needs and solutions. China today, has enough litho machines to operate its lines for at least 2 years, no? By then, SMEE should release its latest version. China doesn't even need 7nm chips, as 14nm is just fine and great for 90% of its needs. AI systems, for example, can work very well with 14nm chips.
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86% of chips are still at 28nm... that's why China is not in a hurry, they do it because of their chip environment, not racing according to technology...
 

Jianguo

Junior Member
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at better prices. It's only when China is "FORCED" that it will seek maximum self reliance out of self preservation. China's attempts to build a complete semicon supply chain are entirely the result of American sanctions NOT because it has a policy of maximum self reliance.
Therefore because of America, China is pursuing a policy of maximizing self reliance.
At least in the field of semiconductors, absolutely because it's either do or die. America had the chance to have a place in China's future industrial chain. Instead, it's throwing in the kitchen sink in a futile attempt to stop China, something clearly impossible long term. So, what's going to happen now is, China is going to knock down every chokepoint 1 by 1, inch by inch and eventually end up controlling the lions share of the world market through its superior advantages in other areas it already has commanding advantages. What Western think tankers fail to grasp is that unlike smaller, weaker markets with less capability and potential, China can no longer be relegated to permanent Middle Income status. It passed the point of no return circa 2010-2014. The only thing "STOPPING" China was the internal business practice that focused on the laws of comparative advantage. This is the only thing that is stopping China from dominating every single industry that exists. Absent entrenched monopolies, duopolies or even global competitors, China can and will create those things itself and use that base to catch up and eventually surpass. So, when Anglo-American political hacks decided to sanction China, they basically handed over those markets to China. This was and is inevitable because of China's giant market size, latent capability and already enormous realized ability.

If incompetent governments like India realized this themselves, they would be banning Google, Facebook, etc. on grounds of national security and re-create mirror companies within India. This would create an internal monopoly with a 1+ billion market. Essentially, this is what China did except China was HELPED by the Americans by them self-sanctioning their own products from China's business classes who would otherwise follow the laws of comparative advantage. In a very real sense, America is a great friend of China.
 

olalavn

Senior Member
Registered Member
At least in the field of semiconductors, absolutely because it's either do or die. America had the chance to have a place in China's future industrial chain. Instead, it's throwing in the kitchen sink in a futile attempt to stop China, something clearly impossible long term. So, what's going to happen now is, China is going to knock down every chokepoint 1 by 1, inch by inch and eventually end up controlling the lions share of the world market through its superior advantages in other areas it already has commanding advantages. What Western think tankers fail to grasp is that unlike smaller, weaker markets with less capability and potential, China can no longer be relegated to permanent Middle Income status. It passed the point of no return circa 2010-2014. The only thing "STOPPING" China was the internal business practice that focused on the laws of comparative advantage. This is the only thing that is stopping China from dominating every single industry that exists. Absent entrenched monopolies, duopolies or even global competitors, China can and will create those things itself and use that base to catch up and eventually surpass. So, when Anglo-American political hacks decided to sanction China, they basically handed over those markets to China. This was and is inevitable because of China's giant market size, latent capability and already enormous realized ability.

If incompetent governments like India realized this themselves, they would be banning Google, Facebook, etc. on grounds of national security and re-create mirror companies within India. This would create an internal monopoly with a 1+ billion market. Essentially, this is what China did except China was HELPED by the Americans by them self-sanctioning their own products from China's business classes who would otherwise follow the laws of comparative advantage. In a very real sense, America is a great friend of China.
9bf6470dly1h8fisi9ktxj20jd29446w.jpg
it's too much fragmentation...especially in the EDA and Auto chip area...
 

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
Before anyone get too excited about this, the wafer output of planned Arizona fab will be 10% of eventual total output at 5nm and 3nm. I don’t think you could consider this as US dismantling anything.
Last time they says nothing about 3nm in Arizona. Now he's confirmed it. 10% is what they announced but it is highly possible that they not just stop at 10%. Also there's rumors that many tsmc engineers moved to Arizona too.
 
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