Chinese semiconductor industry

tonyget said:

From Jan to Oct，the total number of domestic lithography machines win the bidding is one，the domestic rate is 8%. That means the total number of lithography machines of bidding is （1/0.08）=12

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Actually after reading this data I realized I was a bit too pessimistic on the scaling effort.

Indeed the large majority of tools already have a localization rate above 40%, especially in the second part of the year. It means that doubling the production capacity will be enough to saturate the market for the most cases. Doubling capacity for Chinese firms is one year work, not more.

OTH apart from lithography, that we already know, I see also Ion Implantation has a localization rate of just 9% but it corresponds to only 3 machines for a total yearly market so far of only 32 machines. So in this case is more a still existing technical barrier than a scaling issue. And actually we know this is the case. The local producer Kingstone Technology only recently shipped the first machines, so if product quality will be confirmed in real production, we can foresee that in 2023 this number will scale up sensibly.

If these are the numbers, the scaling issues for the most part can be fixed in one year time....with the exception of lithography that is a separated topic.

european_guy said:

Actually after reading this data I realized I was a bit too pessimistic on the scaling effort.

Indeed the large majority of tools already have a localization rate above 40%, especially in the second part of the year. It means that doubling the production capacity will be enough to saturate the market for the most cases. Doubling capacity for Chinese firms is one year work, not more.

OTH apart from lithography, that we already know, I see also Ion Implantation has a localization rate of just 9% but it corresponds to only 3 machines for a total yearly market so far of only 32 machines. So in this case is more a still existing technical barrier than a scaling issue. And actually we know this is the case. The local producer Kingstone Technology only recently shipped the first machines, so if product quality will be confirmed in real production, we can foresee that in 2023 this number will scale up sensibly.

If these are the numbers, the scaling issues for the most part can be fixed in one year time....with the exception of lithography that is a separated topic.

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Bro regarding Ion Implanter we have to include CETC, since they are State owned they don't published their sales figures.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Let him keep embarrassing himself, the thread could use some levity.

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Hardly the first time either. We had this exact same argument like a few months ago about his faulty logic over interpreting how companies source their equipment. Give it a couple more months and he will be back a 3rd time with how his shocked that companies aren’t giving him their trade secrets that he thinks his obligated to.

US is pushing Netherlands and Japan so hard now. I think china have 9 month to 2 years to localized everything now.

Strangelove said:

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"" The anonymous official revealed that, in one instance at the CIIE, a large foreign semiconductor industry player "timely" demonstrated its lithography machines as Netherlands-based ASML came into the spotlight amid escalating US tech restrictions on China. "It probably envies ASML, which has had all the fame, and perhaps believes it can have some of the market share, should ASML choose to cede." ""

Which is the large foreign semiconductor industry player?

tonyget said:

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And more bad news.

Firstly，compare to the hotly debated topic "domestic substitution" by the public. Chinese semiconductor firms aren't actually so enthusiastic about it. Some of them still have delusions about the US may lift the ban in the future，as stated in the artical below，and some are just satisfied with status quo. Which is the same thing.

Because as the US semiconductor tech advance further in future，they may update the threshold of the ban. And many Chinese firms may just satisfied with status quo of trailing behind the US，satisfied with taking what ever the US allowable，not interest with catching up.



There are domestic equipment manufactures using imported core components，to quickly push put new products，and claim credit for it. When the ban on these core components comes，these domestic equipment will be just as unreliable as foreign ones.

Also，there are fabs loves to talk about how supportive they are to domestic equipment/materials，but it's mere rhetoric，lack real action.

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They will have to do things that they are unhappy about...

On EDA, The one to watch in 2023, and 2025

"The company listed three development goals in its prospectus: help China “plug holes” in key EDA software categories by 2023, “fully substitute” foreign design tools with domestic versions and create a complete ecosystem of software tools needed for chip design by 2025, and become a global leader in EDA software by 2030.

mmbro said:

On EDA, The one to watch in 2023, and 2025

"The company listed three development goals in its prospectus: help China “plug holes” in key EDA software categories by 2023, “fully substitute” foreign design tools with domestic versions and create a complete ecosystem of software tools needed for chip design by 2025, and become a global leader in EDA software by 2030.

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Competitors

According to CCID Consulting, foreign EDA providers have been dominating the Chinese market for a long time, including US-based Synopsys, Cadence and Germany-based Siemens. The three industrial giants hold 77 percent of the market share in China.

Domestic Empyrean Technology ranked fourth on the list, with a market share of 5.9 percent. The company on Friday replied publicly to its shareholders over a question about the US' restrictive measures. It said that with a mission to promote the self-development of China's EDA technology, it aims to fill the gaps so as to support the sustainable growth of Chinese semiconductor industry.

tokenanalyst said:

lets be crystal clear here, doesn't matter who is in power in China, Xi Jinping, Bo Xilai, Jack f*cking Ma, the CPC or a parliamentarian democracy, the U.S will never be comfortable and will never allow a country as powerful and as big as China to be good at semiconductor manufacturing as the Taiwanese or Koreans are

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It is not the case of the United States not allowing China, it is the case of the United States attempting to stop China or any country similar to China, and even demographically smaller countries such as China that are nevertheless still significant or major ones demographically if they attempted to do so such as Russia, India, and Indonesia... The United States is trying to prevent China, but it will fail...

gelgoog said:

There are all sorts of claims about the current capability of the Chinese immersion lithography tool prototype, or lack of capabilities, but the thing is AFAIK Chinese ArF tools of any kind are not used in mass production anywhere in China yet. Even the Chinese dry ArF lithography tools seem to be used by basically no one after being produced

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Has/Can the Chinese state not establish pilot facilities to test and demonstrate their effectiveness at the cost to the state, given that there is so an urgency to replace foreign lithographic machines and a very realistic probability that even present ArF machines of any foreign country at any nodes will in the near term future be banned from being sold to China? The United States could successively persuade the Dutch and Japanese governments to ban ASML, Nikon, Canon, or any others that exist in the field from selling ANY DUV machines to China.

The Chinese state has so often declared the need for comprehensive technological self reliance. Chinese companies that use advanced technologies will very likely be much more willing to comply with such a proclamation if the development and demonstration of the effective of the domestically made technologies is done at no cost to them.

If you want me to use a particular type of knife and scissors instead of others that I currently use, if you demonstrate that the knife and scissors that you want me to make is as good as they ones that you do not want me to use, and will at least be just as costly, I will most likely buy them, especially if the ones that supply me with the knife and scissors that I like and want to buy either stop supplying me or keep saying that they will stop supplying me.

Let the Chinese government build a comprehensive pilot plant to demonstrate the effectiveness of SMEE's lithography machines and if they prove good enough, SMIC, Yangtze, and others will probably buy them...