The idea is that once SMEE's DUV is available, the threat of ASML DUV sanction will decrease significantly.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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The idea is that once SMEE's DUV is available, the threat of ASML DUV sanction will decrease significantly.
ASML CEO: In case China cannot expand production capacity, the company's revenue target will remain unchanged
According to Reuters, the chief executive of ASML, a major supplier to semiconductor manufacturers, Peter Wennink, told investors on Friday that the Chinese chipmaker will not change its 2030 output if it cannot expand production capacity beyond current levels. Revenue forecast. (Original: ASML, a key supplier to semiconductor manufacturers, would not change its 2030 forecasts much if Chinese chipmakers are unable to expand their capacity beyond current levels, CEO Peter Wennink told investors on Friday.)
ASML's sales in China will be around 16% in 2021, but it has yet to obtain a license to sell its most advanced tools in the country.
"While I would hate to see it, if the geopolitical situation is such that China is excluded from any growth, however, the demand is still there," Wennink said in a meeting with investors. The fab (fab ) will be built elsewhere. So this may be a temporary problem. But eventually we need to make these chips.” (Original: Speaking at a meeting with investors, Wennink said “if the geopolitical situation is such, which I would not expect, but that, for instance China would absolutely be excluded from any growth, the demand is there. The fabs (fabrication plants) would be built somewhere else. There could be a temporary hiccup. But ultimately those chips need to be made.” )
"So it won't have much of an impact on the situation in 2030."
ASML on Thursday raised its long-term forecasts for 2025 and 2030, saying it expects strong demand for its products over the next decade.
It expects sales to grow from 18.6 billion euros in 2021 to 4.4-60 billion euros in 2030.
Seem just a Rando..
Scaling tools production is definitely a problem for China. Also in SMIC's comments of few days ago they said that there could be some issue with long delivery times for small producers (read local Chinese ones).
We have to remember that until very recently we were discussing if Chinese toolmakers were able to break the tools technical barrier, now we discuss of scaling. So, yes it is a real issue, but is an unavoidable part of the ongoing process. China is playing the long game here, but has to workaround the emergencies with what they have. The road ahead is very clear although will not be without bumps. Anyhow once the technical barrier is broken, if there is one thing Chinese people are good at is scaling up production in incredibly short times, unthinkable for anybody else.
Definitely the lithography machine is by far the most critical tool. A ban on ASML now or also in the next few years would have a serious impact on Chinese firms...but we are not discovering anything new.
Depends. If the Chinese can buy those chips from the outside world or the figure out to made them on their own.
-If they can't get those chips from the outside world then the demand is gone. China is pretty much the biggest market for cutting edge chips, AI, EV and so on giving the goverment support. The U.S. is basically a slow adopter and they usually only invest in panic mode after seeing the Chinese advancing a very fast speed.
China made it on their own.
-China lithography industry take off. Chinese made DUV, immersion and EUV machines become mainstream in China.
-China is forced to find innovative ways to do AI. new materials, new techniques and advanced packaging.
-A combination of both.
China has a national project called Dong Shu Xi Suan (Eastern Data, Western Computation) which builds big computing centers in inland Western regions where renewable power is plentiful and use them to meet computational demands from Eastern coast, as transferring data has minimal cost compared to transferring electricity. Chinese government is taking a large role in developing computing infrastructure and consequentially has a big say in procurement. I also imagine generous energy subsidies can make mature process competitive for a lot of applications.
The huge warlike and mobilization efforts that the Chinese semiconductor companies, the central-local governments and all Chinese research institutions needs to do are:
1- Lithography. Chinese foundries, research institution, equipment, parts and subsystems manufacturers with significant goverment investment need to come together and crease an entity dedicated to the acceleration of the development of lithography systems, subsystems and components. for their mass production. Ebeam, EUV, DUV, immersion, NIL, maskless and so on.
2-Components and materials. Again, significant goverment investment and mayor collaboration between tool makers, fabs and research institutions to solve the problems the impede the mass production of components, parts and materials.
They need to see this as what it is: War and they should mobilize as such.
Will be a huge and costly mistake from Chinese goverment if they leave this to the market to solve alone. They should come with full support and use this shift in the market as catalyst for the full localization and vertical integration of the Chinese semiconductor industry supply chain to secure it against this kind external attacks in the near future.
do you seriously think CPC will leave them alone to solve all problems. never
actions have already been taken and CPC mobilized national resource to create chip ecosystem ..
Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed improving a new system for mobilizing China's nationwide resources to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies
Edit - off topic i know but example is related to scale up capability of China. during Zhuhai air show, we get to know the J-20 production capacity and it was shocking. Chengdu is on the way to produce 100 plus stealth fighter jet per year after 2023. exactly 2 years ago it was a dream for Chinese aviation enthusiasts. Chinese naval construction began outpacing US naval construction in the 2010s in spite of people claiming it's impossible. Now Chinese aviation looks to be heading in that direction too.
once SMEE solve the technical issues of 28nm DUV. serial production of DUV will be exploded.
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The technical issues are already solved for 28nm. Now it's just a matter of scaling.
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