Chinese semiconductor industry

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antiterror13

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tphuang said:
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BOE tech is putting in 29 billion RMB investment into a new plant producing 6th gen Semiconductor display.

Product includes VR display, miniLED and other displays.

designed capacity is 50k wpm. Looking to start mass production in 2025. And reach mass production in 2026.
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Would this be immune to any bans by the big bully?
 
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european_guy

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Overbom said:
They seem confident that they will succeed. I don't blame them though, as the US has multiple tools available to pressure the EU and other vassals.

I would say that it is quite likely that indeed, in maximum 9 months there will be bans for China buying advanced IC equipment from countries other than the US

There should be a push to fast-track ASML DUV orders. In addition, domestic IC equipment companies need to speed up R&D and massively increase their production capacity
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US narrative on this topic is reaching grotesque levels. Ok, being the world's boss, they never needed to be smart in writing realistic narratives to start with, but here we are reaching new lows.

1. Banning of ASML has nothing to do with playing level field with US equipment makers because ASML makes lithography machines. Banning ASML will not make a favor to US equipment makers in any way.

2. Even if US succeeds in forcing a ban on Holland and Japan, I expect they will reach a compromise and it will be a "professional" one, including do not stop after sales service, still sell spare parts, define a grace period, etc. So US equipment makers are and will remain the last extreme option for Chinese customers. US equipment makers are now doomed in China, no matter what.

The reality is that US administration does not care at all about US toolmakers, US choose to sacrifice their toolmakers to try to crumple China and choose to do it as soon as they can. That's why they started without before reaching an agreement (read "succeed coercing") with others. They think they had no time to wait, they think time is on China side...and they think correctly! China has still a couple of years of suffering, then all this nonsense will end by natural death.

ASML has to resist now as much as they can. What Japan does is less important, gap with Japanese toolmakers will be the first to be closed up, already is for 28nm and above nodes and largely also for 7-14nm nodes. Below 7nm at the moment is not interesting for China.

If ASML succeed in proving itself a reliable and dependable partner in these very critical times, they know they will have an open market in China for the foreseeable future. SMEE will never get 100% China market for many reasons: installed legacy base (1000 ASML machines in China, 1500 mostly Chinese ASML people), competition and healthy market, strategic consideration (to allow ASML doing a lot of money in China is important also for China).

ASML has to resist now and in Holland they know it....
 
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ansy1968

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european_guy said:
US narrative on this topic is reaching grotesque levels. Ok, being the world's boss, they never needed to be smart in writing realistic narratives to start with, but here we are reaching new lows.

1. Banning of ASML has nothing to do with playing level field with US equipment makers because ASML makes lithography machines. Banning ASML will not make a favor to US equipment makers in any way.

2. Even if US succeeds in forcing a ban on Holland and Japan, I expect they will reach a compromise and it will be a "professional" one, including do not stop after sales service, still sell spare parts, define a grace period, etc. So US equipment makers are and will remain the last extreme option for Chinese customers. US equipment makers are now doomed in China, no matter what.

The reality is that US administration does not care at all about US toolmakers, US choose to sacrifice their toolmakers to try to crumple China and choose to do it as soon as they can. That's why they started without before reaching an agreement (read "succeed coercing") with others. They think they had no time to wait, they think time is on China side...and they think correctly! China has still a couple of years of suffering, then all this nonsense will end by natural death.

ASML has to resist now as much as they can. What Japan does is less important, gap with Japanese toolmakers will be the first to be closed up, already is for 28nm and above nodes and largely also for 7-14nm nodes. Below 7nm at the moment is not interesting for China.

If ASML succeed in proving itself a reliable and dependable partner in these very critical times, they know they will have an open market in China for the foreseeable future. SMEE will never get 100% China market for many reasons: installed legacy base (1000 ASML machines in China, 1500 mostly Chinese ASML people), competition and healthy market, strategic consideration (to allow ASML doing a lot of money in China is important also for China).

ASML has to resist now and in Holland they know it....
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But bro Rutte is a WEF man therefore an Atlanticist.
 
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european_guy

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ansy1968 said:
But bro Rutte is a WEF man therefore an Atlanticist.
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Bro, Rutte is also a Holland man and therefore voted by Holland people.

It is impossible to foresee what will be, I admit it will be very difficult....but if ASML would have been a US company, we even would not be here discussing now.

...there are small "signals" now in Europe, that hint that European politicians start to be pissed by US. Of course nothing openly expressed, because we are a vassal state, but this Ukraine thing really weights on us. People is fed up already, politicians can not ignore it much longer....
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Overbom said:
They seem confident that they will succeed. I don't blame them though, as the US has multiple tools available to pressure the EU and other vassals.

I would say that it is quite likely that indeed, in maximum 9 months there will be bans for China buying advanced IC equipment from countries other than the US

There should be a push to fast-track ASML DUV orders. In addition, domestic IC equipment companies need to speed up R&D and massively increase their production capacity
Click to expand...
Japan is the key card. Nikon is on life support and TEL is on China support AKA life support.

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Even in 2020, if TEL is banned from China they will lose 80% (!) of their sales in FPD development and 18% in semiconductor. In 2022, their share of semiconductor sales is 28%. China-support AKA life-support.
 
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ansy1968

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Weaasel said:
Do not be surprised if every American ally decides not to sell anything that the United States does not want them to sell to China, regardless of how much it hurts them.
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Well IF their aim is to hinder the Chinese progress then its really to late, IF SMIC n+3 is in limited production base on the table provided by @Alb then by next year we are a generation behind and with the current economic downturn that may last 2 years, it's safe to say that the opportunity is there for SMIC and other Chinese tech company to close the gap.
 
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Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Topazchen said:
Nope.. What he means is that..
"we want China to have unsophisticated fabs that churn unsophisticated chips for things like microwaves and washing machines.

We don't want them to have cutting edge chips to upgrade their companies, missiles and digital economy because it might threaten our economic and military position in the world. "

Chinese customers would retain “a robust capability to make semiconductors that are going to go into the air bags of cars, which I have no problem with,” he said.

This is a very arrogant statement rooted in superiority complex.
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Yes, he and his ilk have no problem with China remaining as technologically backwards as you want them to be, and not progress technologically any more than China is presently in terms of what products it can presently make right now, using tools of its own making.

If China were to go back to the stone age tommorow, they would rejoice and sing Hallelujah for an entire year...
 
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