Chinese semiconductor industry

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antiterror13

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PopularScience said:
Japanese are not crazy as American.
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And the Japanese know that Chinese have long memory (unlike the Americans) ... and whatever happen China will always be the close neighbour of Japan, while the USA is far far away and may no longer the country as we know it now. Chinese civilization is over 3 thousands year and Japanese perhaps 1-2 thousands while the US is merely close to 250 years and there is a question what would happen in 50 yrs to the US ... there is no comparison really
 
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european_guy said:
US narrative on this topic is reaching grotesque levels. Ok, being the world's boss, they never needed to be smart in writing realistic narratives to start with, but here we are reaching new lows.

1. Banning of ASML has nothing to do with playing level field with US equipment makers because ASML makes lithography machines. Banning ASML will not make a favor to US equipment makers in any way.

2. Even if US succeeds in forcing a ban on Holland and Japan, I expect they will reach a compromise and it will be a "professional" one, including do not stop after sales service, still sell spare parts, define a grace period, etc. So US equipment makers are and will remain the last extreme option for Chinese customers. US equipment makers are now doomed in China, no matter what.

The reality is that US administration does not care at all about US toolmakers, US choose to sacrifice their toolmakers to try to crumple China and choose to do it as soon as they can. That's why they started without before reaching an agreement (read "succeed coercing") with others. They think they had no time to wait, they think time is on China side...and they think correctly! China has still a couple of years of suffering, then all this nonsense will end by natural death.

ASML has to resist now as much as they can. What Japan does is less important, gap with Japanese toolmakers will be the first to be closed up, already is for 28nm and above nodes and largely also for 7-14nm nodes. Below 7nm at the moment is not interesting for China.

If ASML succeed in proving itself a reliable and dependable partner in these very critical times, they know they will have an open market in China for the foreseeable future. SMEE will never get 100% China market for many reasons: installed legacy base (1000 ASML machines in China, 1500 mostly Chinese ASML people), competition and healthy market, strategic consideration (to allow ASML doing a lot of money in China is important also for China).

ASML has to resist now and in Holland they know it....
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Weaasel said:
Yet, despite them being such iconic companies of Japan, the Japanese government is likely ready to see them die on orders of the United States. Do not rely on Japan. I will not be surprised if they follow the letter of American policy vis a vis China in EVERYTHING.
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I think we've discussed this issue to death. There is really no way we know what happens for a while. IMO, the most likely gov't to cave is the Dutch gov't. Japanese gov't is likely to pay lip service, but know that they will suffer tremendously from Chinese sanctions for years if they go ahead with this. Japanese economy is also in real trouble. Dutch economy on the other hand is just reliant on trade with China. I just don't buy the idea that Japan gov't will destroy their economy for America. As such, China will need to continue to engage its European countries and explain their desire for global supply chain and fair trade.

I think even 9 more months of ASML supply + after sales service will be a pretty big boost to Chinese fabs. With some fast tracking, they could import as many as 30 Arfi scanners include a bunch of NXT 2100i during that time. Would be enough for expanded advanced node production at SMIC/HLMC. China should not only engage Dutch gov't, but also pay ASML a lot of money to fast track orders.

Beyond that, it's really depend on how much clout ASML has with Dutch gov't. A lot of this really depends on European economy is doing next year and how much resentment there are to fighting America's proxy war with Russia.

Also, the laughable part is that US gov't thinks they are providing American tool makers relief by getting other Western countries to not sell to China. American companies are going to get anymore orders after this fiasco! What a bunch of baffoons.
 
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AndrewS

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tphuang said:
I think we've discussed this issue to death. There is really no way we know what happens for a while. IMO, the most likely gov't to cave is the Dutch gov't. Japanese gov't is likely to pay lip service, but know that they will suffer tremendously from Chinese sanctions for years if they go ahead with this. Japanese economy is also in real trouble. Dutch economy on the other hand is just reliant on trade with China. I just don't buy the idea that Japan gov't will destroy their economy for America. As such, China will need to continue to engage its European countries and explain their desire for global supply chain and fair trade.

I think even 9 more months of ASML supply + after sales service will be a pretty big boost to Chinese fabs. With some fast tracking, they could import as many as 30 Arfi scanners include a bunch of NXT 2100i during that time. Would be enough for expanded advanced node production at SMIC/HLMC. China should not only engage Dutch gov't, but also pay ASML a lot of money to fast track orders.

Beyond that, it's really depend on how much clout ASML has with Dutch gov't. A lot of this really depends on European economy is doing next year and how much resentment there are to fighting America's proxy war with Russia.

Also, the laughable part is that US gov't thinks they are providing American tool makers relief by getting other Western countries to not sell to China. American companies are going to get anymore orders after this fiasco! What a bunch of baffoons.
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I would say the Dutch are pretty insulated from China trade.

Whilst Rotterdam is in Holland, it's mainly a transit point to the rest of Europe.
 
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gelgoog

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weig2000 said:
1. Fabs need to fast track more orders for DUVs from ASML and other equipment from Japan.
2. Chinese equipment manufacturers need to speed up their development of equipment that are still in need of import and ramp up production capacity of domestic ones.
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They have been already been doing this. Look at current SMIC fab expansion for example. SMIC already fully expected US ban on 14nm lithography and changed plans to make the massive 28nm expansion which is now in progress.

And Chinese equipment and materials manufacturers are all vastly ramping up development and production. We typically see yearly revenue growths in the high double digit percentage when they get posted here.

Weaasel said:
Be prepared to ditch ASML entirely in the near term future for a long time come... 100% ditch them. ASML is powerless to prevent what the Dutch government will very likely be forced to do. Keeping a relationship with ASML is much less important than having a thoroughly reliable supply chain for the semiconductor and IC chip sector. The only such reliable chain is an ENTIRELY DOMESTIC ONE.
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ASML already said in their last conference that Chinese sales are "only" 15% of their overall sales by value so it seems pretty clear they are getting ready to have to dump the Chinese market. The reason why sales by value are low is that DUV machines are much cheaper than EUV machines. Since China is not allowed to buy EUV machines they have to buy much cheaper DUV machines only.
 
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Chinese tech giant Huawei publishes a patent on quantum computing chip

China’s tech titan Huawei published several patent information recently, one of which is called “Superconducting Quantum Chip”, and the publication number is CN115271077A, according to Tianyancha, China’s corporate data and due diligence platform.

The patent summary shows that this application discloses a superconducting quantum chip. Huawei’s new technology could reduce crosstalk between qubits, said the summary.

A report from market intelligence firm IDC shows that the global quantum computing market will grow from $412 million in 2020 to $8.6 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 50%.

Huawei has been investing in research and development of quantum computing since 2017, and has published a series of patent papers on the technology, including “a quantum chip and quantum computer”, “a control method for qubits in a superconducting chip and related equipment”, and “superconducting quantum computing system and quantum computer bit manipulation method” and other patents.
 
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Yes @european_guy I agree that the Scholz visit is very important.

Anyhow, some other news
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Ferrotec Silicon's Zhejiang Linshui factory is complete (4 billion RMB investment) and will start production soon.
首期建设项目年产120万片8英寸（以特殊需求外延片为主）、年产240万片12英寸外延片，未来可扩产至8英寸年产240万片、12英寸年产360万片，预计2024年全部达产后可实现年产值50亿元。
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eventually looking to produce 2.4 million 8 inch wafers and 3.6 million 12 inch wafers a year for a yearly sales of 5 billion RMB.

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LJ Micro which was established in March 2021 for GPU/SOC development has receiving a new round of funding. It came out with GP201 GPU earlier this year.

So another GPU designer. What they need is more capacity from SMIC.
 
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Looks like Huahong grace is going to be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange under the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It's looking to raise 18 billion RMB. Break down to be used as following:
12.5 billion -> Huahong Wuxi project
2 billion -> Improvement to 8 inch project
2.5 billion -> R&D on new technology/process
1 billion -> additional cash flow

So, either a new fab next to Wuxi or a large expansion to its Wuxi project (fab 7). From Q2, I think they said they are already planning to raise production at fab 7 to 95k 12 inch wpm by the end of the year. I would think this is on top of that. A little under $2 billion can probably allow them to increase production by another 30k wpm. Unclear if the Wuxi gov't provides any assistance. Their Q3 earnings call is on the 10th.

In the first half IR
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they had said the fab 7 represented 40% of their revenues and is the most promising growing engine for the company.
 
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Tianxin Internet PIQ curing furnace and 3D measuring instrument procurement project winning results announced​


According to micronet news, on November 2, Tianxin Internet Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Tianxin Internet") PIQ curing furnace and three-dimensional measuring instrument procurement project winning bid results announced.

The winning bidder for the PIQ curing furnace project is Beijing North Huachuang Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd., and the target is a PIQ curing furnace; the winning bidder for the three-dimensional measuring instrument project is Shenzhen Zhongke Feiqi Technology Co., Ltd., and the target is a three-dimensional measuring instrument instrument.

Relying on system-in-package (SiP) and board-level fan-out packaging (FOPLP) platforms, Tianxin Interconnect provides customers with highly integrated and miniaturized semiconductor device module packaging solutions and semiconductor test interface solutions. The products are widely used in high-end medical, Industrial control, communication, semiconductor testing and other fields.

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