Chinese semiconductor industry

european_guy said:

The article is quite impressive:

"In all, Stillman said he collected the names of more than 2,000 Chinese scientists working at nuclear weapons facilities, recorded detailed histories of the Chinese program from top scientists, inspected nuclear weapons labs and bomb testing sites, interviewed Chinese weapons designers, photographed nuclear facilities -- and then, each time he returned home, passed the information along to U.S. intelligence debriefers."

What a change in just a bit more than 20 years!

Now a US inspection would not be allowed in any military facility. To inspect a Chinese military nuclear facility site today would be unthinkable.

Even inspecting a semiconductor firm, like YMTC, to amend it from the unverified list is already very border-line, and not clear if it will be allowed or not. It is dead sure that in few years from now, it won't.

The speed and the breadth with which China liberated itself from US control is what panicked US the most. Especially in the last 10 years, since 2012, they really flipped out at the idea that China was quickly gaining true strategic independence and was breaking western technology monopolies, one after another.

To be strategic independent and to be a big country, it means to be a US enemy. After China, India will be the next...and they know it.

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ansy1968 said:

The tool will be somewhat different from scanners produced by companies like ASML or Nikon. For example, IAP plans to use a >600W light source (total power, not intermediate focus power) with an 11.3nm exposure wavelength (EUV wavelength is 13.5nm), which will require considerably more sophisticated optics than exists today. Because the light source of the device will be relatively low power, it will make the tool more compact and easier to build. Yet, it also means that its production of the scanner will be considerably lower than that of modern deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools. That might not be a problem, according to IAP.

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ansy1968 said:

IAP plans to build a fully functional alpha scanner by 2024. This one will not have to offer high productivity or maximum resolution but will have to work and be attractive to potential investors. IAP intends to build a beta version of the scanner with higher productivity and resolution by 2026. This machine should be mass production ready, but its productivity is not expected to be at its maximum. The final iteration of the litho scanner is said to emerge in 2028. It should get a high-performance light source (hence better productivity), better metrology and overall capabilities. There is no word how many of such machines IAP and/or its production partners will be able to produce by 2028.

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Jianguo said:

The 11.2nm wavelength was abandoned early on because the conversion efficiency hovered at under 1%. This held true even with low grazing incidence optics. However, a Russian research institute proposed a solution to this by using a defocused (wide dispersed) beam to irradiate Xenon. The principle is somewhat similar to how a pre-pulse laser precedes the main laser by forming Tin droplets into a flat concave disc to spread out the exposure area, before the main laser zaps it to achieve greater conversion efficiency. This is done with 1 laser instead of 2, without the shaping, by using Xenon gas targets vs droplets. This raises conversion efficiency to 3.9%.

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Quote:
"Xe laser-produced plasma with a gas-jet target is considered a promising λ = 11.2-nm radiation source for a possible extension of the EUV (Extreme UltraViolet) lithography. EUV spectra of the plasma radiation obtained with the aid of both a grating spectrograph and Bragg mirrors are presented. The absorption of the EUV radiation in the cold peripheral gas has been eliminated in another experiment by means of irradiating the target with a wide defocused laser beam that resulted in an increase of the EUV output by an order of magnitude. In that experiment, the conversion efficiency at λ = 11.2 nm amounted to 3.9%."


I place the chances the Russians succeeding with such a prototype anytime before 2028 at exactly negative -50%. They might get an extremely low power lab scale light source, optics, single stage workbench, vacuum chamber, gases, pumps, valves and various other components ready. However, everything else, they'll be relying on China's supply chain while they attempt to indigenize it over the next 20+ years. They need to cooperate with China or else they'll fall behind worse than they did during Soviet times. Russia has some top notch talent, but this just copium.

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Jianguo said:

The 11.2nm wavelength was abandoned early on because the conversion efficiency hovered at under 1%. This held true even with low grazing incidence optics. However, a Russian research institute proposed a solution to this by using a defocused (wide dispersed) beam to irradiate Xenon. The principle is somewhat similar to how a pre-pulse laser precedes the main laser by forming Tin droplets into a flat concave disc to spread out the exposure area, before the main laser zaps it to achieve greater conversion efficiency. This is done with 1 laser instead of 2, without the shaping, by using Xenon gas targets vs droplets. This raises conversion efficiency to 3.9%.

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Quote:
"Xe laser-produced plasma with a gas-jet target is considered a promising λ = 11.2-nm radiation source for a possible extension of the EUV (Extreme UltraViolet) lithography. EUV spectra of the plasma radiation obtained with the aid of both a grating spectrograph and Bragg mirrors are presented. The absorption of the EUV radiation in the cold peripheral gas has been eliminated in another experiment by means of irradiating the target with a wide defocused laser beam that resulted in an increase of the EUV output by an order of magnitude. In that experiment, the conversion efficiency at λ = 11.2 nm amounted to 3.9%."


I place the chances the Russians succeeding with such a prototype anytime before 2028 at exactly negative -50%. They might get an extremely low power lab scale light source, optics, single stage workbench, vacuum chamber, gases, pumps, valves and various other components ready. However, everything else, they'll be relying on China's supply chain while they attempt to indigenize it over the next 20+ years. They need to cooperate with China or else they'll fall behind worse than they did during Soviet times. Russia has some top notch talent, but this just copium.

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Weaasel said:

You are veering in the same extreme that the worst prognosticators in the West have or had about China.

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Jianguo said:

I hope you're right but I'm quite sure the days of Russia as a scientific power are inevitably coming to an end. They are basically living off of the Soviet legacy where their most productive R&D staff are now into their 50s and older. Huge numbers have brain drained for the last 30 years, almost entirely to Western countries. This brain drain has not stopped and is resulting in a long term decline of Russia's scientific technological standing. The best road forward for Russia is to cooperate with China in large scale joint development projects along with fast tracking of work and residency visas for Russian research, scientific and technical staff. This would give the Russian scientific community another alternative other than Western countries that are becoming increasingly hostile to Russian nationals. Only comprehensive large scale scientific/technological integration with China's already leading position will ensure Russia doesn't decline into irrelevancy. Without the scale of Human resources needed to stay at or near the leading edge, Russia will fall behind, this is just inevitable. Russia needs China.....BADLY.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

China can produce all the equipment around lithography such as clean/etch/deposition/develop/metrology, its just lithography that China has a problem with. This is not surprising to me in the least. If you follow the thread you'll see tons of links and reports from companies like AMEC, Naura, ACM, etc (etch/dep/clean), but one general rule I find works well: China has problems with mechanical engineering but is strong in electronics and chemistry. Etch/deposition/clean/develop is all chemistry, metrology is all electronics. Meanwhile a general rule is Russia has problems with electronics hardware but has strengths in mechanical engineering and software. lithography is heavily dependent on mechanical engineering for key components like wafer stage and mask management, and software for controls. I would not be surprise by significant Russian progress on their lithography instrument, and I would not be surprised by China helping Russia build the ecosystem around it.

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caudaceus said:

To this day it's difficult to comprehend that the root of semiconductor tools is mechanical engineering. Granted, my view of MechE is limited to big, sturdy, and loud machines emitting hot gases.
Having said that I am glad on rocketry and Hypersonic China seems leading.

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