Looks @ansy1968 posted an English translation of the Lam employee interview that I had previously linked to but got deleted.
here is a new link
I have also saved it in case they delete it again.
My thoughts on that interview since it's given from the perspective of a Lam employee in charge of servicing CXMT. Tt was conducted before Oct 12th. Pretty much everything here checks out from the point of view of a Lam employee except for his assumption that Green card holders can continue to work with Chinese semiconductor industry.
From this interview, it's quite clear that American tools providers are done in China. For American firms, they simply cannot fully service their Chinese clients without some involvement from Americans. It's unclear if these rules will be loosened but certainly it makes sense for non-American firms to keep their American employees out of interaction with Chinese semiconductor industry on whether or not they want to pick their career vs citizenship. There is no reason ASML or Japanese firms cannot service Chinese customers as long as American citizens are not involved. As it is well known, ASML has over 1500 employees in China, so should have no issue servicing Chinese clients. For American execs in China like Gerald Yin, they will have to decide whether or not they want to keep their citizenship. Imo, we will get a mix of both. Without giving these people some time, it's unclear how they will decide. And even if they do decide to keep their job, it may take a while for them to legally give up their American status, which would keep them from working in their position for a while. Overall, 200 Americans for the entire Chinese IC industry is not a lot of people.
He made it clear that Lam will have to do massive layoffs in China and local Chinese employees will likely be hired by CXMT/YMTC to continue servicing the Lam machines they already have. The only issue is spares. However, Fujian Jinhua has shown that these spares can be sourced from other countries. A lot of the components aren't even American. So, there should be minimal effect to current production or upcoming production that have already received their machines. YMTC has been clear they have been stocking up.
Even so, future expansion will likely be stopped unless CXMT/YMTC can source those tools locally or from Japan. It is likely that Japanese companies will benefit big time from this. AMEC currently cannot fully replace Lam products according to this Lam employee. Nand production relies on more etching equipment than your logic chip production, so AMEC still has some work to do. This will affect both YMTC and CXMT. Unclear how much this will slow them down. Keep in mind that as long as the American content is below 25%, it can continue to be sold to China. That includes the precious ASML DUVi scanners that SMIC currently relies on in its advanced node fab.
While it is possible that YMTC/CXMT/SMIC/HLMC can receive American tools that are not "banned", they have to sign agreement with US gov't to assure that those production will not be used for military or other sensitive purpose. They are unlikely to sign this. As such, they are essentially getting the Fujian Jinhua treatment or the entire Chinese IC industry is getting Jinhua treatment. It's unclear to me how much service a mature node fab can get from American companies.
Lam employee admits that Jiading ICRD and SMIC's SMSC fab can already operate without American tools. As such, there is no reason that advanced processes in China will be stopped by this. He also recognizes that SMSC can already produce both 7 and 14 nm chips without Lam product. Again, it seems like the issue is production level from Chinese tools makers rather than capability. That's how Chinese tools makers continue to win greater % of bids we see, especially between NAURA and AMEC. With the number of Chinese employees that AMAT/LAM/KLA will have to let go, the logical conclusion is that they will join their Chinese competitors or the fabs that use them. As such, this level of knowledge/personnel transfer is likely to have huge impact on the product development and expansion plan of Chinese tools makers.
here is a new link
I have also saved it in case they delete it again.
My thoughts on that interview since it's given from the perspective of a Lam employee in charge of servicing CXMT. Tt was conducted before Oct 12th. Pretty much everything here checks out from the point of view of a Lam employee except for his assumption that Green card holders can continue to work with Chinese semiconductor industry.
From this interview, it's quite clear that American tools providers are done in China. For American firms, they simply cannot fully service their Chinese clients without some involvement from Americans. It's unclear if these rules will be loosened but certainly it makes sense for non-American firms to keep their American employees out of interaction with Chinese semiconductor industry on whether or not they want to pick their career vs citizenship. There is no reason ASML or Japanese firms cannot service Chinese customers as long as American citizens are not involved. As it is well known, ASML has over 1500 employees in China, so should have no issue servicing Chinese clients. For American execs in China like Gerald Yin, they will have to decide whether or not they want to keep their citizenship. Imo, we will get a mix of both. Without giving these people some time, it's unclear how they will decide. And even if they do decide to keep their job, it may take a while for them to legally give up their American status, which would keep them from working in their position for a while. Overall, 200 Americans for the entire Chinese IC industry is not a lot of people.
He made it clear that Lam will have to do massive layoffs in China and local Chinese employees will likely be hired by CXMT/YMTC to continue servicing the Lam machines they already have. The only issue is spares. However, Fujian Jinhua has shown that these spares can be sourced from other countries. A lot of the components aren't even American. So, there should be minimal effect to current production or upcoming production that have already received their machines. YMTC has been clear they have been stocking up.
Even so, future expansion will likely be stopped unless CXMT/YMTC can source those tools locally or from Japan. It is likely that Japanese companies will benefit big time from this. AMEC currently cannot fully replace Lam products according to this Lam employee. Nand production relies on more etching equipment than your logic chip production, so AMEC still has some work to do. This will affect both YMTC and CXMT. Unclear how much this will slow them down. Keep in mind that as long as the American content is below 25%, it can continue to be sold to China. That includes the precious ASML DUVi scanners that SMIC currently relies on in its advanced node fab.
While it is possible that YMTC/CXMT/SMIC/HLMC can receive American tools that are not "banned", they have to sign agreement with US gov't to assure that those production will not be used for military or other sensitive purpose. They are unlikely to sign this. As such, they are essentially getting the Fujian Jinhua treatment or the entire Chinese IC industry is getting Jinhua treatment. It's unclear to me how much service a mature node fab can get from American companies.
Lam employee admits that Jiading ICRD and SMIC's SMSC fab can already operate without American tools. As such, there is no reason that advanced processes in China will be stopped by this. He also recognizes that SMSC can already produce both 7 and 14 nm chips without Lam product. Again, it seems like the issue is production level from Chinese tools makers rather than capability. That's how Chinese tools makers continue to win greater % of bids we see, especially between NAURA and AMEC. With the number of Chinese employees that AMAT/LAM/KLA will have to let go, the logical conclusion is that they will join their Chinese competitors or the fabs that use them. As such, this level of knowledge/personnel transfer is likely to have huge impact on the product development and expansion plan of Chinese tools makers.
