their target is 80-90% chip will be made in China by 2025... 28nm and 14nm have been mastered, even 90nm lithography machine they are also public... it's true that China is trolling U.S.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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That's the key point, many employees of American companies in China will simply switch to domestic competitors and current production capacity will be maintained. Expansion will be slower, but more sustainable. The sudden influx of trained engineers might even be positive for domestic companies who are struggling to find enough talent
There'll be a response, but probably after the party congress. Humiliating Biden at the G20 meeting might be enough. China could also support other countries opposed to the US. But a trade war with the US isn't favourable yet, it's better to wait until they're in recession next year. In the coming recession, all semiconductor manufacturers are going to suffer, except in the Chinese market
If this is a competition as defined by seeking semiconductor self sufficiency while maintaining operation of industries where semiconductors are needed, then tactical moves like counter bans or tariffs may or may not be useful in achieving that goal.
This competition is one which is defined by the US and China carrying out their respective strategies.
The US aims to undermine, delay and hinder Chinese semiconductor industry development and self sufficiency.
China aims to advance, progress and speed up their semiconductor industry development and self sufficiency.
If a Chinese response may be able to deter or delay further escalation (if such further escalation is deemed threatening or damaging), then sure perhaps a response would be useful.
But if it does not provide a useful effect, then a response like a counter ban or counter tariff may end up simply being a waste of effort at best, or a potential unforced error at worst.
Responding for the sake of responding is not necessarily useful.
"You fight your way, and I'll fight my way".
banning Micron opens the market for YMTC and prevents revenue from going to a direct competitor.
If YMTC are capable of meeting demand and the hypothetical measures against micron do not cause adverse outcomes in other industries reliant on their products, then sure that is reasonable.
But then in that case, given how many rounds of past technology blockades have been put up in recent years by the US, they could have pulled such a card before.
My overall point is that seeking a prompt form of "retaliation" to "fight back" is probably not that useful.
It might be temporarily emotionally satisfying, but responses should be done on the basis of what is actually useful.
"Passivity" on the surface, is not necessarily a bad thing.
What if they use measures like import quotas/import license on foreign semiconductors instead to give priority to domestic companies first and then covering any lack of supply with imports?
I think instead of in your face banning, Beijing will whispers to tech executives to gradually drop micron.
There are other NAND flash manufacturers other than Micron like SK Hynix or Samsung. What makes you think that they won't just move to those companies?
This seems a more covert way of achieving the same thing, just let YMTC climb the prestige ladder covertly. If i'm not mistaken something like this also happened with BEO the OLED screen manufacturers if i'm not mistaken? First lower tier brand/models and a couple of years later they got apple and Huawei contracts for higher tier brand and models..
Let's say china banned micron, but since china is manufacturing powerhouse then what are you going to put into apple's iPhone. Apple won't take ymtc which means you can't build iphone in china which will encourage apple to take out it's iphone to other countries where micron is not banned. Think into consequences of the action.
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