EDA for memory is at 5nm apparently by what Samsung/Primarius have said.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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Zhichun Technology: It is expected that the production capacity of semiconductor equipment will reach 150 units by the end of the year, and the new round of sanctions will have no substantial impact on the company
Jiwei.com news, on October 10, Zhichun Technology stated on the interactive platform that the company's semiconductor equipment production capacity in the third quarter is gradually increasing according to this year's production expansion plan, and the production capacity is expected to reach 150 units by the end of the year. The wafer recycling business will generate some revenue this year.
It is reported that the main business of Zhichun Technology mainly includes the research and development, production and sales of semiconductor process equipment and process support equipment, as well as the resulting high-purity process system construction, electronic materials, component cleaning and wafer regeneration services.
Zhichun Technology's 2022 semi-annual report shows that during the reporting period, the company's overall operating income was 1.120 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the company's ordinary shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 97 million yuan, an increase of 21.67% over the same period last year. , 128.12%. It pointed out in its semi-annual report that the 128.12% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was mainly due to the growth of the company's semiconductor equipment business.
Zhichun Technology disclosed in its semi-annual report that the company's current flagship products including SPM, crystal back cleaning and other models have been widely recognized by the first-tier customers in the downstream core key process segments, and have received continuous orders. In the field of special processes, the company's wet process equipment can cover the whole process of third-generation semiconductor wafer manufacturing. As of the announcement date, the top domestic third-generation compound semiconductor manufacturers have ordered nearly 40 related wet process equipment from the company.
On the interactive platform, regarding the new round of U.S. sanctions, Zhichun Technology stated that the incident had no substantial impact on the company. The company has no American employees, the executives are not American, the actual controller is Chinese, and the imported part of the company's equipment supply chain is in Japan and South Korea.
But I'm not sure on the logic part, there's a lot of EDA players out there and I'm not sure where all their abilities are. Empyrean and Primarius look the most promising though.
I addressed what Vincent posted, see here:
Chinese semiconductor industry
There are a few key breakthrough nodes that aren't simple die shrinks. 28 nm and 14 nm are some of the critical nodes. 14 nm is the first FinFET process which many companies are unable to do because it is more challenging in many ways: it has a disproportionately smaller minimum feature size...
www.sinodefenceforum.com
China did hit Qualcomm with a fine, so did EU, but that that got appealed.
Micron being investigated in 2018
I can only imagine that the Chinese government doesn’t hit back at American companies is that they see such a strategy as self-defeating. Qualcomm and Apple are probably going to be your biggest allies since they have so much to lose.
Meanwhile Intel, AMD, and nVidia are going to lose billions which will basically provide an indirect subsidy to create a new Chinese competitor. Also deprived them of revenue that could’ve gone into R&D to maintain their technological lead. The market can barely sustain the three of them as it is.
this, its complicated to move too much against the market. The worst thing that can happen to China is their semiconductor sector becoming like American cars - reliant on government interference to survive.
I think China's actual red lines is if something affects their national security or US is trying force transfer of some sensitive tech out of China. The former will pretty much not happen because the PLA uses 0 US components, the latter could have some risk.
What killed Japanese companies during the Plaza accord was forced tech transfer and forced takeover by US counterparts. But US simply has no legal power inside mainland China, although theres a decent chance they can try something on taiwan island. Which would be in China's interest to clamp down hard on.
China has to react, otherwise there's no deterrent to future sanctions.
YMTC should be the most able to work with only domestic equipment because they don't need very advanced lithography. So maybe some restrictions on American made memory chips could work. But of course it's best to keep those dependencies alive for now
What happens if YMTC is given a captive market? They will become less and less competitive.
Let American politicians trip over themselves. The industry already warned them AGAINST such actions, and they still proceeded with blunt action.
You can't deter someone with nothing left to lose. The US is going to lose an enormous amount of geopolitical power when it loses its control over the semiconductor supply chain. Its sanctions are going to be meaningless if the countries it sanctions can just get the most advanced technology from China. Furthermore, it's going to lose the huge profits it makes by having a monopoly on the cutting edge.
Deterrence requires a certain amount of rationality to work and it's clear that the US has lost all rationality on this topic. It's driven by pure animal fear and desperation. So it isn't worth worrying about China hurting the US directly, China hurts the US plenty just by building itself up.
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