Chinese semiconductor industry

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tphuang

tphuang

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This week, I saw something rather interesting in the IC world around in New York State.
It was announced that Micron is investing $100 billion into build new fab in Syracuse, New York
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I was initially surprised that they are spending so much money on Capex after the recent news they are cutting back on investment. And then I read this article, the investment will be over 20 years and the first $20 billion investment won't start construction until 2024. Which got me around to wondering why the investment needs to be so high. I know that NY is basically the most expensive place to build anything, but that still seemed to be ridiculous to build 1 mega fab

Then I looked at to see what YMTC is doing with their new plant and saw this article
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Looks like YMTC had already hit 100k 12-inch wpm by end of last year. And they are planning to scale up to 300k 12-inch wpm by 2025. The total Capex will reach $32.8 billion from 2016 to 2025.
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by the time they hit 300k wpm, they will have annual revenue of 100 billion RMB a year -> $16 billion a year? To put thing in perspective, Micron had revenue of $27.7 billion last year.
Of all the Chinese chip makers, YMTC may be going through the fastest expansion of them all.
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

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What can one say except a begrudging props to ASML - they've defended their market share in China tooth and nail, they've de-Americanized their DUV lineup and are dumping machines as fast as they can into China, and they're busting American sanctions like their life depends on it. I have to say this took me by surprise.
 
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henrik

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tphuang said:
This week, I saw something rather interesting in the IC world around in New York State.
It was announced that Micron is investing $100 billion into build new fab in Syracuse, New York
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
I was initially surprised that they are spending so much money on Capex after the recent news they are cutting back on investment. And then I read this article, the investment will be over 20 years and the first $20 billion investment won't start construction until 2024. Which got me around to wondering why the investment needs to be so high. I know that NY is basically the most expensive place to build anything, but that still seemed to be ridiculous to build 1 mega fab

Then I looked at to see what YMTC is doing with their new plant and saw this article
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Looks like YMTC had already hit 100k 12-inch wpm by end of last year. And they are planning to scale up to 300k 12-inch wpm by 2025. The total Capex will reach $32.8 billion from 2016 to 2025.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
by the time they hit 300k wpm, they will have annual revenue of 100 billion RMB a year -> $16 billion a year? To put thing in perspective, Micron had revenue of $27.7 billion last year.
Of all the Chinese chip makers, YMTC may be going through the fastest expansion of them all.
Click to expand...

YMTC should just scale up and wreck the competitors.
 
A

ansy1968

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The South Koreans are able to convinced the American to spare them from any restriction to sell the Chinese BECAUSE

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1 hour ago — U.S. suppliers seeking to ship equipment to China-based semiconductor firms would not have to seek a license from the Commerce Department if ...

Their business sales are crumbling!

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47 minutes ago — Samsung's chip profits suffered from plunging memory chip prices due to weakening demand for consumer electronics, hurt by rising inflation, ...


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15 minutes ago — Samsung Electronics Co. reported its first profit drop since 2019, underscoring the depth of a global PC and memory chip downturn.

Meanwhile on the other side of the pond.

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while incurring anemic sales with quarterly decrease of nearly 20%

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7 days ago — Micron Technology MU ended fiscal 2022 on a disappointing note as fourth-quarter earnings and revenues declined on a year-over-year basis.

So where did they get the confidence? Micron for me is America unwanted child, the US are focus on saving and nurturing Intel and Micron new FAB is a way of getting attention to seek gov't subsidies, they can't compete with the Koreans and with the exemption they're not competitive in the Chinese market with added geopolitics uncertainty.
 
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P

paiemon

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ZeEa5KPul said:
What can one say except a begrudging props to ASML - they've defended their market share in China tooth and nail, they've de-Americanized their DUV lineup and are dumping machines as fast as they can into China, and they're busting American sanctions like their life depends on it. I have to say this took me by surprise.
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Doesn't surprise me, that's what you expect from any market driven company. The US seems intent on forcing companies to take a side, and they may not like the results. ASML has clearly picked a side here, so it will be interesting if other companies follow its lead (if they aren't already). Washington politicians seem to have forgotten that money talks, and when you are the one of the largest and fastest growing markets, companies will find ways to get things done if the price is right. While still an important market, the US no longer has the leverage to dictate corporate compliance like it used to. It's kind of like a married couple who slowly stagnate and drift apart, with the one partner not realizing things have changed and the other looking at more eye-catching opportunities.
 
proelite

proelite

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At the end of it I think the ultimate outcome is less wealth for all players in the global market, unless somehow China can be replaced at large by another nation in the semi conductor space from a consumption and production POV. That's obviously not going to happen so the US is spending some money to become poorer, for the benefit of having more secure supply chain.
 
A

ansy1968

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proelite said:
At the end of it I think the ultimate outcome is less wealth for all players in the global market, unless somehow China can be replaced at large by another nation in the semi conductor space from a consumption and production POV. That's obviously not going to happen so the US is spending some money to become poorer, for the benefit of having more secure supply chain.
Click to expand...
If we look at the overall picture the US want to have 5nm and possible 3nm node to be produce and onshore to the US, they were force to acknowledged the 7nm node to the Chinese, accepting the fact that China had already reach the tech level and settled for 2 generation advantage strategy. BUT it's getting crowded in such a niche market and the US is coming in late with a severe economic downturn on the way.

And we are in a critical period cause I believed by 2025 when the Arizona FAB will be online mass producing the 5nm chip, we may see the same with SMIC N+3 5nm and what will the US reaction, more sanction? or acceptance? and I predict the latter cause they have thrown everything even the kitchen sink BUT gain nothing from the Chinese. Ohhh!!! I need to rephrase that they gain parity with China...lol unless the Taiwanese and the Koreans are foolish enough to offshore their 3nm and 2nm tech. Knowing the US they're already planning a Black Operation by either sabotaging their infrastructure or start a war to forced them to do so. ;) Reliving the past as the Arsenal of Democracy, saving the world with a benign American hegemony I mean democracy :pand a perfect pretext is KIM the Rocket man...lol
 
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GodRektsNoobs

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tokenanalyst said:

中国科学院上海光学精密机械研究所2021年7至12月政府采购意向-LPP光刻光源收集镜多层膜沉积平台建设与关键技术研究-超高真空EUV薄膜沉积装置，1台套，用于高性能EUV薄膜的研​


I was thinking that any company or spin off from CAS that develop an EUV machine will be at a better completive advantage against ASML than SMEE because ASML can't sell EUV in China. Even a machine that can only do 60 WPH is better than one that is not existent.
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Who will be the contractor here? Guowang or RSLaser?
 
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