Chinese semiconductor industry

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horse

horse

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A quick note about Huawei.

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From the chart, Huawei has lost ground in the telecom gear market.

From their research at Dell'Oro, it was ZTE who ate mostly into Huawei market share in recent quarters.

Little wonder that the mainstream media have not been mention Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, in the same breath.

:oops::D
 
PopularScience

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tphuang said:
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I think these articles are often written to make the policy makers happy. Yes, it's obvious that Huawei is looking for a 5G phone and it will get it next year. Why wouldn't they? I would say most likely using SMIC's N+1 process. In the next couple of years, Huawei's best hope is SMIC. At this point, SMIC should not longer feel getting sanctioned for working with Huawei. The money they can make from producing chips for Hisilicon is a lot more than losing out on access to certain American machines.

Also, I really wonder where they find these "experts". Does this expert realize that 5G in America doesn't work?
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Not only SMIC. Huawei joint venture with ICRD, Jiading second phase will start producing in next few months. ICRD have 14nm capability.
 
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ansy1968

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PopularScience said:
Not only SMIC. Huawei joint venture with ICRD, Jiading second phase will start producing in next few months. ICRD have 14nm capability.
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Bro from @Oldschool (I hope he rejoin this forum)

@Oldschool shared with me news that Huawei will be getting wafers from PXW, JHICC, and Huawei’s Ningbo fabs. He also mentioned Huawei is asking JHICC to switch to Logic manufacturing.

And one more from one of our esteem member. ;)

since I first share info in Shenzhen fabs with you, I learned SMIC was a bit upset that Shenzhen government transfer some resources originally intended for SMIC to PXW/PXX. So some in SMIC camp are not bullish on PXW. So I was incorrect to assume PXW will receive 14/7nm technology from SMIC.

there’s another DRAM fab called Swaysure that’s also working close with Huawei. Swaysure is the one pursuing the IGZO memory (the tech that @tokenanalyst shared yesterday). This fab’s wafer is intended for Huawei.

all these fabs are actively recruiting. My customers and myself included were all recruited and from the exchange it’s clear all these outfit are either Huawei incognito, backed by Huawei, or at the very least with main purpose on supporting Huawei. The connection to Huawei is undeniable and significant.

with their relationship to Huawei coming to light, I don’t know how this will impact their existing effort to procure western equipments. That’s a concern.

All of this indicates that Huawei aren't standing still and is really the main vanguard of Chinese IC development, I'm speculating BUT I think Huawei was delegated by the Chinese gov't with both funding and uses of gov't scientific institution and resources to pinpoint those vulnerabilities and close the gap. I maybe too optimistic and I'm grateful for @hvpc ,@weig2000 and @Oldschool for keeping me grounded BUT the signs are there and its up to us to connect it...lol
 
Blitzo

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gadgetcool5 said:
That's what normal people think. Which is also why normal people are... average, and not number one. The people running the West do think of Huawei not only as a drug cartel, but even worse than a drug cartel because it bested them at something. It's their job to keep the West (10% of the world population) dominating the rest. It's their job to be fanatical, to be crazed, to go beyond what is normal or reasonable. Think of that what you will. But if you aren't willing to be even more fanatical, even more determined, then you won't beat them.
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No, actually normal people -- or rather, incompetent people -- tend to be fanatically paranoid.

If America's goal was limited to short to medium term disruption of Huawei's business, then they have achieved that through their fanatical paranoia.

But by doing so, they've created the circumstances where China's industry now has strategy urgency, market incentive, and a captive market, all for developing a domestic tech stack that is sanction proof -- a circumstance and environment which China itself could never have achieved without US sanctions and their efforts to undermine Huawei.


I somehow doubt that the US goal of undermining Huawei was to also simultaneously all but guarantee a medium to long term prospect of a domestic Chinese tech stack and industry for semiconductors.


If the US yielded more healthy paranoia than frantic paranoia, more selective and sharp sanctions would have been used to actually achieve longer term outcomes capable of properly crippling the Chinese semiconductor industry potential rather than just rousing them up to awareness.
 
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tokenanalyst

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FairAndUnbiased said:
The big problem remaining is lithography. Both Nikon and ASML are risks. Every other equipment is going fine. Unfortunately lithography is just a very hard nut to crack, much harder than deposition, etch, clean, metrology, etc due to the complex, heavy and precision mechanical components involved.

It is very easy to devolve out of lithography - see Perkin Elmer being a pioneer of projection lithography and then having it's semiconductor division go out of business. It is very hard to enter. SMEE is doing OK in packaging lithography but front end is hard.
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ASML is just too competitive for SMEE to compete directly and they offer more than just the scanners. If the Chinese want a FrontEnd lithography-patterning industry and they should want a local FrontEnd lithography industry because if I was a SMIC or a YTMC executive or a goverment official I would be worry about this tools not being secure. So if they want a lithography industry the best way is to enforce the use of SMEE tools at least in goverment funded projects and at least their dry tools, with the immersion tools going to support companies like Huawei. Put ton of investment in the different systems, subsystems and materials manufacturers and force SMEE to become more competitive. In fact I think SMEE should be sold to E-Town, SMIC, Tsinghua or any other group with more experience in the semiconductor industry than Shanghai Electric or be their own independent company.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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tokenanalyst said:
ASML is just too competitive for SMEE to compete directly and they offer more than just the scanners. If the Chinese want a FrontEnd lithography-patterning industry and they should want a local FrontEnd lithography industry because if was SMIC and YTMC executive or a goverment official I would be worry about this tools not being secure. So if they want a lithography industry the best way is to enforce the use of SMEE tools at least in goverment funded projects and at least their dry tools, with the immersion tools going to support companies like Huawei. Put ton of investment in the different systems, subsystems and materials manufacturers and force SMEE to become more competitive. In fact I think SMEE should be sold to E-Town, SMIC, Tsinghua or any other group with more experience in the semiconductor industry than Shanghai Electric or be their own independent company.
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Bad idea to sell them to a 100% semiconductor fab. SMIC has no experience managing conglomerates, they are mostly horizontally integrated. I'd say Tsinghua Unigroup is the best candidate out of them, with a combination of deep pockets, state background and experience of managing related but distinct companies like Guoxin, UNISOC, YMTC, etc.
 
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BlackWindMnt

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weig2000 said:
The way they're talking about and tracking down Huawei feels almost like talking about a terrorist organization or drug cartel. The way they keep emphasizing that what the chip company or Chinese chip companies try to produce is at least eight or five generations behind the most cutting-edge ... You get a chance to peek into the deep psyche of these people or the people/organization/government/state they represent. These are very sick or evil people, to say the least.
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Its so weird to see this argument its like anything above a 10nm like node has a value close to zero when it comes to the computational power it can deliver. I think this industry view means they are missing the big picture big time.

ansy1968 said:
Bro from @Oldschool (I hope he rejoin this forum)

@Oldschool shared with me news that Huawei will be getting wafers from PXW, JHICC, and Huawei’s Ningbo fabs. He also mentioned Huawei is asking JHICC to switch to Logic manufacturing.

And one more from one of our esteem member. ;)

since I first share info in Shenzhen fabs with you, I learned SMIC was a bit upset that Shenzhen government transfer some resources originally intended for SMIC to PXW/PXX. So some in SMIC camp are not bullish on PXW. So I was incorrect to assume PXW will receive 14/7nm technology from SMIC.

there’s another DRAM fab called Swaysure that’s also working close with Huawei. Swaysure is the one pursuing the IGZO memory (the tech that @tokenanalyst shared yesterday). This fab’s wafer is intended for Huawei.

all these fabs are actively recruiting. My customers and myself included were all recruited and from the exchange it’s clear all these outfit are either Huawei incognito, backed by Huawei, or at the very least with main purpose on supporting Huawei. The connection to Huawei is undeniable and significant.

with their relationship to Huawei coming to light, I don’t know how this will impact their existing effort to procure western equipments. That’s a concern.

All of this indicates that Huawei aren't standing still and is really the main vanguard of Chinese IC development, I'm speculating BUT I think Huawei was delegated by the Chinese gov't with both funding and uses of gov't scientific institution and resources to pinpoint those vulnerabilities and close the gap. I maybe too optimistic and I'm grateful for @hvpc ,@weig2000 and @Oldschool for keeping me grounded BUT the signs are there and its up to us to connect it...lol
Click to expand...
Huawei really sounds like they took up the roll as "the man with the hammer" the Chinese private market players better keep moving fast because if they won't Huawei will smash them with the hammer and cannibalise their market share.
 
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