Chinese semiconductor industry

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hahafark1

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Semiconductors and intelligent vehicles are two beloved topics for the tech community as well as investors interested in China. In previous posts, Ginger River Review has offered you three stories including
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,
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, and
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. All three of them were well received by our readers. GRR thus wants to bring you a fourth piece into the collection so that the discussion will be more well-rounded.
Co-hosted by China EV100 中国电动汽车百人会 and the government of Jiangning District in Nanjing, the capital of east China's Jiangsu Province, the "2022 Conference on Innovated Global Supply Chain of NEV and ICV " kicked off on September 6.
Miao Wei 苗圩, the deputy director of Economic Affairs Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conferencee (CPPCC) and former head of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology addressed the event.
Today's piece is a translation of
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at the conference.
In the speech, Miao expressed his concern over the operating system (OS), calling it "a more urgent and fatal issue than chips, and it is the key to success for intelligent vehicles and
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(V2X),
" adding that though the landscape of global intelligent vehicles is still up in the air, the window left for China is about three years, five years at most.
Miao also elaborated on the relationships between chips and OS, and talked about how progress made in OS may help China out of the current semiconductor predicament.
Beware that the following speech was notes taken by
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, a Chinese news site, at the event, and the content and GRR’s translation have not been reviewed by the speaker.
The topic of my speech today is "on Key Issues Facing the Automobile Supply Chain."
For the supply chain of NEVs, let's pay attention to chips first.

Regarding the development of chips, chips for consumers hold high standards and the biggest demand for advanced chips, with chips used in smart phones as an example. However, smart cars are equipped with chips only secondary to ones for military use. They must operate in a worse environment compared with chips for consumers and chips for industrial use, and must have a longer lifespan. Moreover, in addition to the general standards, automotive chips must adapt to a series of automobile standards. For example, to test the reliability of chips, we usually use the AEC-Q100 standard, which is generally used in North America. To control the failure rate, we must establish a quality control system for chip makers, in other words, the IATF-16949 standard. This is a standard that automotive chips must meet as we are in line with the international standard now. For
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, ISO 26262 is another standard needed for certification. Therefore, there are more requirements for automotive chips, and the time needed for certification is longer.

In addition to chips, I would like to talk about software. In the era of computers,
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dominated the industry. Most PCs around the world operated on the Windows operating system. In the transition from traditional phones to smart phones, Apple Inc. created a closed-source operating system called iOS. In response, Google Android, an open-source operating system free of charge. Thus, in the era of smart phones, Apple occupies 10 to 20 percent of the market share, while the rest of the world's mobile phone companies go with the Android system.

In the past, I saw no problem in using an open-source operating system. However, the US began to clamp down on Huawei two years ago. Besides ceasing the chip supply, it also restricted the use of Android operating system. Instead of restricting Huawei's access to the Android OS, the US limited Huawei's use of apps that are operating on Android OS. As a result, Huawei had to equip smartphones with its HarmonyOS, an operating system originally for industrial use. In this way, Huawei managed to continue the service for customers. Otherwise, it couldn't maintain its customers even in China. But Huawei still lost huge swathes of the overseas market.

For the second part, I'd like to share my views on the development of the automotive chip supply chain.

Let me briefly introduce China's chip development in recent years. In terms of design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, chip design companies have made the fastest progress these years with the development of smart phones. Hisilicon 海思 of Huawei has made it to the world's top ten fabless integrated circuit companies. As I remember, it ranked fifth in its best record. Spreadtrum Communications 展讯 and RDA Microelectronics 锐迪科 also ranked among the world's top ten at one time. [GRR: It is Unigroup that made it to the top 10 in 2017. But Unigroup acquired Spreadtrum and RDA in 2013 and 2014 respectively.] Unfortunately, after the US began to suppress Huawei, Huawei cannot make it to the top 10. Even if chips can be designed, no company provides
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and manufactures the chips for Huawei. Nevertheless, it's an indisputable fact that we have made fast progress in design capabilities.

In terms of countries, the US ranks first in chip design, with a market share of 68 percent, according to last year's statistics. Ranking second and third are China's Taiwan region and the Chinese mainland, with market shares of 16 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

As for packaging and testing, China has a strength, and the smallest gap with the world's leading level. Of the world's top ten packaging companies, five are located in Taiwan, and three in the Chinese mainland. The three companies are JCET Group 长电科技, TongFu Microelectronics 通富微电 and Tianshui Huatian Technology 华天科技. The other two are located in the United States and Singapore.

We have met resistance in the tape-out of advanced chips. A solution is to package different types of chips together, which would address our weaknesses in advanced chips to some extent. This is also the mainstream of the international chip industry.

Tape-out is the process that we are left far behind. The best we can manufacture is 14 nm process chips. And because the
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, we are hampered in making more advanced chips. Although advanced chips are important, its current market share is still small in the global market distribution. The chip shortage that we suffered in recent years are mainly chips with 28 nm process and above, ranging from digital electronics, analog electronics, power semiconductor devices to sensor chips. Therefore, we must consolidate existing advantages first. Since we are not only curbed in the development of advanced chips, the insufficient production capacity for 28 nm chips and above is also a problem. Therefore, we are investing heavily to scale up the production of 28nm and more mature processes

Regarding automotive chips, a small number of AI chips are need in CPU and GPU. It's best to have advanced chips. But if not, there remain other solutions. In terms of the total amount, only a small proportion of automotive chips are advanced chips, and the majority is chips manufactured at mature nodes.

For vehicles, with the development of NEVs, the electrical/electronic (E/E) architecture shifts from decentralized ECU control to a newly designed platform that has centralized
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. Looking ahead, we will move towards building Central Vehicle Controller (CVC) on the basis of domain controllers. And every step towards centralization will promote the efficiency of automotive chips. Many chips cannot give full play to the on-board computing efficiency due to decentralized control and domain controller. Therefore, the future of vehicles is about marching towards the centralized computing architecture from domain controller. The trend has already been brought up a few years ago, and it's an upward slope.

On this basis, China must make forward-looking overall planning for cloud control platform. Many chip companies participated in the discussions this morning. I said that we all pay attention to the automotive chips used on automobiles. Recently, the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed restrictions on
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Why GPU chips but not Nvidia's Orin chips? Yu Kai [the founder and CEO of Horizon Robotics] later told me that Nvidia's GPU chip is vital for training AI systems, so the US is targeting the vitals. What I'm trying to advocate is that other than focusing on automotive-grade AI chips, we also need to draw attention to training AI chips in the cloud.

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tokenanalyst

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This
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, is considered one of the best "thinking-minds"
:oops:, I don't even want to see their worse.
The funny thing, is that this are the "moderates", this are the "pro-business democrats". That is the problem with U.S. politics, is in a downward spiral toward basically fascism, every single administration try to surpass the previous ones on ideology, militarism, corporatism and corruption to the point that there just one party in U.S. politics with democrats being just woke republicans.
Chinese companies, engineers, managers and so on should give up the illusion of normalcy, this idea that things are going to be like used to be. They should start securing their supply chain, doesn't matter the cost or the effort or if the engineers have to sleep in the factory just to get the damn machine to work to spec in a war like effort, so when the real ideologues decide to cut the plug, Chinese companies lose just a percentage instead of everything. Is not the fault of KLA, Qualcomm, AMAT or Lam Research, they don't have a choice, but U.S. companies are not long term reliable suppliers at least for Chinese companies.​
 

european_guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
there just one party in U.S. politics with democrats being just woke republicans.

I don't live in US, so this is just my very uninformed opinion from a foreign observer: in US the "single party" is the financial-industrial-military corporate that drops tons of $ on both the official parties. Both republican and democrat politicians cannot turn down this river of money, it would mean for them to change job because it would be almost impossible to be re-elected.

...and of course all this money does not come for free!

Chinese companies, engineers, managers and so on should give up the illusion of normalcy, this idea that things are going to be like used to be.

If any high-tech Chinese company did not seriously think to secure its supply chain already, then it really deserves to hit the wall because no real manager can be so naive and blind to think nothing will happen.
 

Weaasel

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It takes time for a process to mature and for production to be the raised. In the GT article, that expert said

He sounded pretty confident about it there about 7 nm and also 5 nm. And he is saying basically they have already finished all the work they needed for 14 nm and that they have moved onto 7 nm. His comment sounds like their yield on 7 nm is now acceptable. So, you have to ask yourself if 7 nm here is referring to N+1 process or the N+2 process (which is close to the earliest Samsung 5nm but SMIC calls 7 nm).


It shouldn't be that hard to procure equipment for 14 nm process, right? I'm interpreting this as not getting the equipment for ramping up more advanced nodes. I hope the purchase of all these NXT 2050i means they are confident that they have all that they need to ramp up production. It would be silly to have a bunch of DUVs ready for N+1/N+2. They must have paid some good money for ASML to develop more powerful NXT 2050i and 2100i just for them. I mean after all, the report explicitly said "for the most critical layers". So, that means these will be used like EUVs in SMIC's process.


I don't know. I just know they are really ramping up their production in those large 12 inch megafabs. SMIC/YMTC/CXMT/HuaHong/CanSemi/Silan all have plenty of large expansion projects. How much domestic market share they can occupy really depends on the economy and China's continued industrialization.

I think it's pretty important to get to more advanced nodes. For example, they've been building super computers using Phytium's S2500 server chips and need like 750k of them per super computer. If they can move Phytium server chips to N+1 or N+2 process, that will increase the power of their super computers. Similarly, they need N+1 chips to have more powerful fully domestic desktops that can replace foreign computers in organizations with sensitive info.

I did a calculation yesterday. For every 10k wpm of N+2 improved production, they can produce about 80 million smartphone CPUs a year. To put things into perspective, Xiaomi sold 190 million phones last year. So if they want to support Huawei, they'd need to dedicate probably 30k wpm of N+2 production just to provide enough Kirin chips to support Huawei returning to its former sales numbers. In reality, the demand from Chinese smartphone makers is probably closer to 600 million a year right now and growing. That would be 80k wpm of their most advanced process. Which is more than the planned capacity of SN1/SN2 combined.

So, SMIC need more advanced node fab.
N+1 and N+2 are what in terms of nanometers?
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
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Semiconductors and intelligent vehicles are two beloved topics for the tech community as well as investors interested in China. In previous posts, Ginger River Review has offered you three stories including
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. All three of them were well received by our readers. GRR thus wants to bring you a fourth piece into the collection so that the discussion will be more well-rounded.
Hi there, while I appreciate you for posting GRR links and article here, I do have some serious issues with it. Based on the first two stories, I get the sense that GRR thinks Huawei and CATL are the story of Chinese NEV growth. I can assure that this is not the reality. BYD is the story. Without focusing on the progress of BYD, you cannot arrive at the correct conclusion.

I will just pick out a few pieces of this speech/article, since I had already addressed it several weeks ago in the science/tech thread and this is a long speech to respond to.
In the speech, Miao expressed his concern over the operating system (OS), calling it "a more urgent and fatal issue than chips, and it is the key to success for intelligent vehicles and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
(V2X),
" adding that though the landscape of global intelligent vehicles is still up in the air, the window left for China is about three years, five years at most.

Let me briefly introduce China's chip development in recent years. In terms of design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, chip design companies have made the fastest progress these years with the development of smart phones. Hisilicon 海思 of Huawei has made it to the world's top ten fabless integrated circuit companies. As I remember, it ranked fifth in its best record. Spreadtrum Communications 展讯 and RDA Microelectronics 锐迪科 also ranked among the world's top ten at one time. [GRR: It is Unigroup that made it to the top 10 in 2017. But Unigroup acquired Spreadtrum and RDA in 2013 and 2014 respectively.] Unfortunately, after the US began to suppress Huawei, Huawei cannot make it to the top 10. Even if chips can be designed, no company provides
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and manufactures the chips for Huawei. Nevertheless, it's an indisputable fact that we have made fast progress in design capabilities.

this is where things fall apart when you are not focused on the right places. It seems like the older people in the automotive leadership are only focused on Huawei and legacy automakers.

Software, autonomous driving and safety control is actually where China leads the world right now. NIO and XPeng both have developed great software for their cars. Most importantly, this is one are that BYD already does well, but will really shine in the future. The BYD e 3.0 platform is an extremely impressive EV platform and comes with its own OS that should eventually offer plug in with Apple CarPlay/Google Drive and such. Recently, BYD has given outsiders a preview of their plan for their smart driving OS. It provided a very detailed explanation of all the controls they will/have put in their E3.0 cars that run on their proprietary OS and provide interface for any application/software to operate over the top. It's a great plug & play type of API that will allow for fast software iterations. BYD has stressed that fast moving fish will eat slow moving fish. BYD is fast moving. All the legacy automakers just simply can't compete here. It's a true problem in Western countries that all the talented software engineers only work for finance companies and soft tech companies.

Regarding automotive chips, a small number of AI chips are need in CPU and GPU. It's best to have advanced chips. But if not, there remain other solutions. In terms of the total amount, only a small proportion of automotive chips are advanced chips, and the majority is chips manufactured at mature nodes.


For vehicles, with the development of NEVs, the electrical/electronic (E/E) architecture shifts from decentralized ECU control to a newly designed platform that has centralized
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Looking ahead, we will move towards building Central Vehicle Controller (CVC) on the basis of domain controllers. And every step towards centralization will promote the efficiency of automotive chips. Many chips cannot give full play to the on-board computing efficiency due to decentralized control and domain controller. Therefore, the future of vehicles is about marching towards the centralized computing architecture from domain controller. The trend has already been brought up a few years ago, and it's an upward slope.

On this basis, China must make forward-looking overall planning for cloud control platform. Many chip companies participated in the discussions this morning. I said that we all pay attention to the automotive chips used on automobiles. Recently, the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed restrictions on
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Why GPU chips but not Nvidia's Orin chips? Yu Kai [the founder and CEO of Horizon Robotics] later told me that Nvidia's GPU chip is vital for training AI systems, so the US is targeting the vitals. What I'm trying to advocate is that other than focusing on automotive-grade AI chips, we also need to draw attention to training AI chips in the cloud.
Again, this is an area to be extremely positive if you are actually following the movement of Chinese auto chip manufacturers. The domestic auto chip makers will slowly take over the local market from the likes of Infineon and start exporting overseas. The explosive growth of BYD means that automakers that depend on foreign auto chips will shrink in market share over time.

As for AI, that's another area which has been overplayed. There is nothing particularly special about A100 GPUs. In the worst case scenario, they can get the same processing power with more of the V100 GPUs stacked together in more optimal manner. You will end up using more electricity, space and man power, but that's never been an issue. After all, China built 2 exascale super computers with Phytium/Sunway server CPUs built on 14 nm process. And as we discussed recently, there are some very competitive Chinese GPUs that can fill the void left by A100. Inspur, Baidu and Alibaba right now are making great AI Servers with domestic GPUs.

The recent GPU ban is a great thing for China's domestic chip designing industry. It will force users to work with them rather than Nvidia. It has even woke up NIO and XPeng to the danger of relying on American AI chips. I foresee a future where you will see very few Nvidia/qualcomm chips on Chinese cars. BYD will use its self developed chips. Everyone else will either develop their own or use Horizon Robotics or Black Sesame chips.
 

tphuang

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N+1 should be close (at least density-wise) to Samsung's 8 nm or TSMC 10 nm, while N+2 should be equal to TSMC 7 nm N2.
N+1 is between Samsung 8 nm and first generation TSMC/Samsung 7 nm in density.
N+2 is between Samsung 4 nm and TSMC N7+
N+2 improved is about TSMC N5 to N5P.

Based on the roadmap published earlier this thread.
 

xypher

Senior Member
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N+1 is between Samsung 8 nm and first generation TSMC/Samsung 7 nm in density.
N+2 is between Samsung 4 nm and TSMC N7+
N+2 improved is about TSMC N5 to N5P.

Based on the roadmap published earlier this thread.
So even better then, N+1 should already be enough to cover most of the computing needs for China as Samsung's 8 nm was used to make NVIDIA's 3XXX series cards. I guess now the priority is building enough fab capacity.
 

olalavn

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này , được coi là một trong những "đầu óc tư duy" tốt nhất trong chính quyền Hoa Kỳ. Giờ đây, anh ấy nhận ra điều đã quá rõ ràng đối với nhiều người: "Với bản chất nền tảng của một số công nghệ nhất định, chẳng hạn như chip bộ nhớ & logic tiên tiến, chúng ta phải duy trì một khách hàng tiềm năng càng lớn càng tốt "

Vâng thưa ông, chính là nó!

.... nhưng bạn đã có được nó với nhiều năm trì hoãn. Đáng lẽ bạn nên nhận nó sớm hơn, bây giờ tôi xin lỗi nhưng đã quá muộn.

Giờ đây, bạn có thể ngăn Trung Quốc thoát khỏi EUV, tức là thoát khỏi các nút phụ 5-7nm. Nhưng nếu bạn không phải là một công ty sản xuất chip điện thoại thông minh, việc đến đó sẽ ngày càng ít có ý nghĩa kinh doanh hơn trong tương lai: nó đắt hơn và lợi thế lớn chỉ nằm ở mức tiêu thụ điện năng. Vâng, cũng mật độ, nhưng với công nghệ đóng gói chiplet mới và tiên tiến hiện đang lan rộng khắp mọi nơi, điều này cũng sẽ được giải quyết.

Tất nhiên, Hoa Kỳ cũng sẽ tăng gấp đôi đối với ASML để buộc họ phải ngừng bán DUV ở Trung Quốc bằng mọi cách ... "trận chiến Hà Lan" sẽ càng trở nên dữ dội và quyết liệt hơn ...
since next year, U.S, ASML won't like China mass production DUV and in 2025-2026 is EUV....
 

tphuang

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Btw, Chinese OS is a real issue. That's why the push for replacing Western computers is a much harder issue than what we previously discussed. Back when this first came up in May, there was a lot of question about who can actually fill this mandate. The market is huge. 50 million desktop will need to be replaced! That's a lot of computers.

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There were speculations about Huawei and Lenovo supplying the computers. Who will be producing the CPUs and that included Kirin, LoongSon, Zhaoxin, Phytium, Hygon and others. Even for software, there questions about which OS to use. Regardless of the answer, I think the party that wins most of these orders will have a lot of resources and money to become a serious player in CPU world and OS world. All the software developers in China will be developing to this OS. I don't think there is any reason to limit this to one vendor, but they will all need to use domestic chip producer for sure.

We know up to this point, Phytium orders for a couple of million CPUs for SMIC is probably among the larger advanced node orders. 50 million will take up a good portion of SMIC SN2 production over the next 2 years.

Recently, a 100% domestic computer called PT620L3 was offered using Loongson 3A5000 CPU which probably uses SMIC's 12 nm process and UOS operating system. Seems like aiming to fill the criteria of completely domestic. No idea how good or usable it actually is.
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