Chinese semiconductor industry

Orthan said:

If they supply anything to huawei, they will get barred from buying american equipment. I dont think that they can really hide this kind of things.

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We don't know what goes on behind the scenes at Huawei or SMIC. We don't even know exactly how big of a chip stockpile Huawei even has or how long it will last.

For all we know, every night a bunch of little elves sneak into the warehouse and top off Huawei's stockpile with chips fresh from the "reject bin" at SMIC. To the best of my knowledge there is no way to tell which fab manufactured a given chip, especially because they were made with the same ASML machines.

If the US can smuggle strategic amounts of titanium out of Russia without being caught, I don't see why China can't accomplish something similar inside its own territory.

Arcgem said:

We don't know what goes on behind the scenes at Huawei or SMIC. We don't even know exactly how big of a chip stockpile Huawei even has or how long it will last.

For all we know, every night a bunch of little elves sneak into the warehouse and top off Huawei's stockpile with chips fresh from the "reject bin" at SMIC. To the best of my knowledge there is no way to tell which fab manufactured a given chip, especially because they were made with the same ASML machines.

If the US can smuggle strategic amounts of titanium out of Russia without being caught, I don't see why China can't accomplish something similar inside its own territory.

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Hi Arcgem,

I'm perplexed, If I'm under sanction, why would I constrain myself, I'm already being punished, I as well do right thing to survived.

Orthan said:

If they supply anything to huawei, they will get barred from buying american equipment. I dont think that they can really hide this kind of things.

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I thought the ban was only on components using US technology?

silentlurker said:

I thought the ban was only on components using US technology?

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There are all kinds of restrictions on semiconductor manufacturing equipment. China can't purchase EUV machines for example. That has been the case since the start. SMIC got sanctions on purchasing US origin equipment (which if you use their definition can be quite vague I think 15% US parts in equipment is enough for it to qualify) supposedly for manufacturing chips for Huawei and like the US has shown with NordStream 2, they can threaten companies with freezing any USD denominated assets they have and cancel any USD denominated bank transfers through SWIFT. This is a huge restriction for companies which have international sales.

Now that Biden is the new POTUS things might change somewhat but I kind of doubt it.

That didn't take long. With Biden's win, pro-US fraction in China has already started its fight against full indigenous chip efforts.

The head of China Semiconductor Industry Association IC Design branch came out and said replacement of foreign semiconductor tech is not the right direction going forward. Instead, China should focus on opening up more, returning to embrace US led system and joint ventures. Government shouldn't get involved.

清华大学教授魏少军：国产芯片替代不应成为主旋律

“我希望中国半导体行业的发展的主旋律开放合作不要改，而不是国产替代思维。中美半导体产业在竞争中合作才能发展。”魏少军说：“我们希望整个全球半导体还是回到世界半导体理事会的框架当中来协调和发展，政府不要做对产业有影响，特别影响产业健康发展的事。”

texx1 said:

That didn't take long. With Biden's win, pro-US fraction in China has already started its fight against full indigenous chip efforts.

The head of China Semiconductor Industry Association IC Design branch came out and said replacement of foreign semiconductor tech is not the right direction going forward. Instead, China should focus on opening up more, returning to embrace US led system and joint ventures. Government shouldn't get involved.

清华大学教授魏少军：国产芯片替代不应成为主旋律

“我希望中国半导体行业的发展的主旋律开放合作不要改，而不是国产替代思维。中美半导体产业在竞争中合作才能发展。”魏少军说：“我们希望整个全球半导体还是回到世界半导体理事会的框架当中来协调和发展，政府不要做对产业有影响，特别影响产业健康发展的事。”

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I mean, they already put so much money into it, gotta get something out of it.

I'd be satisfied with a few $billion market cap equipment companies coming out of the recent investment.

localizer said:

I mean, they already put so much money into it, gotta get something out of it.

I'd be satisfied with a few $billion market cap equipment companies coming out of the recent investment.

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China really needs new laws mandating the use of indigenous equipment or start setting tariffs to protect upcoming domestic equipment makers. Otherwise it's really hard to say whether the current investment will bear any fruit.

It doesn't bode well when oppositions are in key positions.

Orthan said:

If they supply anything to huawei, they will get barred from buying american equipment. I dont think that they can really hide this kind of things.

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Must I remind you that SMIC is a Chinese entity, working in Chinese mainland ( not consulate ) , mayority owned by Chinese directly or indirectly, employs a lot of Chinese in her fab, abide Chinese laws, listed mainly in China bourses, protected by China military if invaded or infiltrated by foreign forces, the list goes on.
In International forum you can ban this or that, but in China mainland what can ASML do? Even ASML can do something, would ASML do it ? They still need money and order from China.
Big, strong country like China or USA won't allow to much foreign intervention, and won't beg for them ( like India , that almost every war scenarios, involving foreign aid )

texx1 said:

China really needs new laws mandating the use of indigenous equipment or start setting tariffs to protect upcoming domestic equipment makers. Otherwise it's really hard to say whether the current investment will bear any fruit.

It doesn't bode well when oppositions are in key positions.

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China's tech scene has a shitton of people that just want to get gov't money, quit, and retire overseas.

They should just do only SOEs for the government funded projects.

texx1 said:

China really needs new laws mandating the use of indigenous equipment or start setting tariffs to protect upcoming domestic equipment makers. Otherwise it's really hard to say whether the current investment will bear any fruit.

It doesn't bode well when oppositions are in key positions.

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Bad idea. Unless the government is willing to give out massive subsidies to all domestic firms, that law will place domestic firms at a severe disadvantage because the domestic equipments/components are inferior than foreign ones.. There are already SOEs for DRAM, flash memory and Huawei for everything else. Just give massive subsidies to them for purchasing and using domestic equipments. Over time domestic equipments and components will improve enough to compete against foreign compnies.