Yes, Companies supplying SMIC will need licenses but those licenses will never be granted.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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The best thing is to publish these articles about these west worshippers on Weibo/Zhihu etc. censors probably will censor it sooner or later, but if the public knows it they may demand help for a domestic chip industry. Not many people know how important this is.
2024 republican president is still possible, what if lunatic Pompeo gets elected? Playing on time if possible is desirable ( taoguang yanghui), however, the policy of self-sufficiency in strategic industries like the chip one, must be maintained. Nothing stands in the way to make it quietly.
The guy is just a detractor talking about the opposite.
I think what is likely is that Biden administration will keep the bans on the most modern semiconductor manufacturing equipment, but will permit US firms to sell semiconductors to China, as well as older generation semiconductor equipment. They may even allow Qualcomm to sell to Huawei, and Google to license GMS to Huawei again, and Huawei to make smartphones again, minus Kirin chips.
The best way to guarantee Democrat elections in 2022 for Senate and Congress, and 2024 for the Presidency is to boost the economy and reduce income equality, and that means you have to engage China so you can maximize US exports to China.
China of course still has to continue the path towards Tech independence for strategic reasons but Biden Admin will use carrots on the stick to bait away from this path.
antiterror13
Brigadier
But at that point (after Biden), China likely would have successfully developed EUVL machine. Also in 2025, a possibility that China's nominal GDP at par or even bigger than the US
Well, the thing is there is no Chinese tool path to 7nm right now. If SMIC went that route they would have to delay the introduction of more recent nodes, which they already developed, for years. Causing it to fall further behind TSMC and Samsung's foundry business.
I agree that SMIC needs to rid of US tools or at least have an alternate set of tools as early as possible. But right now that is impractical.
AFAIK SMIC is already working with SMEE so it is not like they are unaware of possible problems. But to compete they need the proper tools.
I just did a little extra research into who 魏少军 is and what role he actually plays in the Chinese semiconductor industry. Apparent he's not just the head of China Semiconductor Industry Association IC Design branch. He is also the head of Institute of Microelectronics, Tsinghua
University.
According to the official Chinese semiconductor Industry association website, he is in a very critical role since at least 2014. He is in charge of #1 Chinese strategic technological development project focusing on core semiconductor, high end chips and essential EDA software.
The project's goal is to develop core domestic technology in those areas and make strategic progress catching up to world leading standards by 2020.
This project is the most important one (hence #1) among the sixteen major strategic technological projects outlined in Chinese long-term science and technology plan initiated from 2006. They were supposed to come to fruition in this year.
国家科技重大专项企业——01专项、02专项企业集中亮相IC China 2014
截止目前，小编从组委会获悉，与集成电路密切相关的两个重要国家科技重大专项企业将集中亮相展会，包括：01专项——“核心电子器件、高端通用芯片及基础软件产品”(01专项)、02专项——“极大规模集成电路制造装备及成套工艺”专项，预计ICChina2014展会将更为完整、全面地反映中国集成电路整体行业发展现状
"核心电子器件、高端通用芯片及基础软件产品"(以下简称"核高基重大专项")是《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要(2006-2020年)》所确定的国家十六个科技重大专项之一。科技部是核高基重大专项的领导小组组长单位;工业和信息化部是核高基重大专项的牵头组织单位，是实施核高基重大专项的责任主体。核高基重大专项的主要目标是：在芯片、软件和电子器件领域，追赶国际技术和产业的迅速发展。通过持续创新，攻克一批关键技术、研发一批战略核心产品，为我国进入创新型国家行列做出重大贡献。包括展讯、华大、大唐为代表的01专项企业将参展。工信部电子司司长丁文武、01专项小组组长、清华大学微电子所所长魏少军将参与今年高峰论坛演讲，并就集成电路设计行业趋势和政策给出他的解读.
Essentially, China put a US worshiper in its premier domestic semiconductor and associated technology development project. This probably in part explains the slow progress of Chinese indigenous efforts over the last ten years.
University.
According to the official Chinese semiconductor Industry association website, he is in a very critical role since at least 2014. He is in charge of #1 Chinese strategic technological development project focusing on core semiconductor, high end chips and essential EDA software.
The project's goal is to develop core domestic technology in those areas and make strategic progress catching up to world leading standards by 2020.
This project is the most important one (hence #1) among the sixteen major strategic technological projects outlined in Chinese long-term science and technology plan initiated from 2006. They were supposed to come to fruition in this year.
国家科技重大专项企业——01专项、02专项企业集中亮相IC China 2014
截止目前，小编从组委会获悉，与集成电路密切相关的两个重要国家科技重大专项企业将集中亮相展会，包括：01专项——“核心电子器件、高端通用芯片及基础软件产品”(01专项)、02专项——“极大规模集成电路制造装备及成套工艺”专项，预计ICChina2014展会将更为完整、全面地反映中国集成电路整体行业发展现状
"核心电子器件、高端通用芯片及基础软件产品"(以下简称"核高基重大专项")是《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要(2006-2020年)》所确定的国家十六个科技重大专项之一。科技部是核高基重大专项的领导小组组长单位;工业和信息化部是核高基重大专项的牵头组织单位，是实施核高基重大专项的责任主体。核高基重大专项的主要目标是：在芯片、软件和电子器件领域，追赶国际技术和产业的迅速发展。通过持续创新，攻克一批关键技术、研发一批战略核心产品，为我国进入创新型国家行列做出重大贡献。包括展讯、华大、大唐为代表的01专项企业将参展。工信部电子司司长丁文武、01专项小组组长、清华大学微电子所所长魏少军将参与今年高峰论坛演讲，并就集成电路设计行业趋势和政策给出他的解读.
Essentially, China put a US worshiper in its premier domestic semiconductor and associated technology development project. This probably in part explains the slow progress of Chinese indigenous efforts over the last ten years.
Is there proof he's a "US worshipper" whatever that means? This seems like excuse making almost. Can't blame scapegoats for own failures. They could be institutional or individual but there's no proof he purposefully stymied semi-conductor progress for any number of years. This is the kind of self-defeating, ego stroking shittiness that is now endemic in the west. It could just be that China is doing decently in this field for where it was at. Why ignore progress?
Even if the original goal of 2020 hasn't been met, why can't it simply be the goal was too ambitious? Considering all the circumstances of the past in this field, I'd say the national performance has been surprisingly decent. They never had any incentive until this year.
If you read my earlier post, he is championing the return to US led system in semiconductor industry when china is under US chip embargo.
He also wants the government to get out of chip industry. I don't know about you. When your general is making statements about surrender during a tech war, calling him an enemy worshiper is pretty mild. At least, his statements don't inspire confidence in the current environment. It's also reasonable to doubt whether he's put in maximum effort.
Besides in PRC history, there has been no shortage of government officials/insiders believing the mantra "buying is better than building, renting is better than buying".
He’s not a US worshipper. He’s just talking sense about the reality of the industry. China has the capability to go it all alone if it has to, but that doesn’t mean the ultimate outcome, in terms of total technological capability and the speed at which China can get there, would be better overall. Better to grow efficiently with cooperation and help from the rest of the world than to try to do everything yourself and risking unnecessary setbacks in excess of what everyone else is doing. Anyone who thinks that this is all just about willpower has no grasp of the realities of technological development.
Let’s take China’s aerospace industry for example. Has China’s aerospace accomplishments been impressive? Extremely. That doesn’t mean China’s aerospace efforts wouldn’t be much much more advanced and further along if this was a space where China was permitted to have open collaboration with other advanced aerospace economies though (and insofar as there has been open collaboration that has been a major boost to China’s own aerospace advancements).
Those who want China to have a world class and dominant IC industry should root for China to be able to do it alone if other countries are actively hostile to China’s efforts, but that doesn’t mean they should also root against collaboration with other countries when it’s an open option.
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