Chinese semiconductor industry

Weaasel said:

The United States could very well still ensure that ASML and the Netherlands act against their own interests and indeed prevent them from selling anything to China that the United States disapproves of. That the United States is targeting even DUV equipment sales to China shows that the United States is hell bent on escalating its economic war on China, and the purpose of that is to retard China's technological progress capabilities in terms of IC chip manufacture. That is because the US is hell bent on reasserting its geopolitical dominance that has recently come strongly under threat and China is its foremost rival.

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Honestly tired of seeing America sabre rattle without getting more direct consequences.

If the Dutch government doesn't ensure that all paid for EUV and DUV machines go through, China should designate them and their workers as an American state actor and reciprocally ban exports on as many necessities as possible, the same applying to America itself.

Let them not have any medicines nor electronics, let the most basic goods inflate 1000%.

The Chinese government is filled with appeasement theory idiots, it is in the people's interest to ensure these politicians are thrown out of their offices and replaced with officials that put China and her allies first in decisionmaking, not America first.

It is not China's responsibility to ensure a functioning American consumer goods market, medical industry nor electronics market, just like it isn't Russia's responsibility to keep EU's heating systems functional. These are privileges bestowed, assuming the US government plays by the rules, which it isn't doing.

Biscuits said:

Honestly tired of seeing America sabre rattle without getting more direct consequences.

If the Dutch government doesn't ensure that all paid for EUV and DUV machines go through, China should designate them and their workers as an American state actor and reciprocally ban exports on as many necessities as possible, the same applying to America itself.

Let them not have any medicines nor electronics, let the most basic goods inflate 1000%.

The Chinese government is filled with appeasement theory idiots, it is in the people's interest to ensure these politicians are thrown out of their offices and replaced with officials that put China and her allies first in decisionmaking, not America first.

It is not China's responsibility to ensure a functioning American consumer goods market, medical industry nor electronics market, just like it isn't Russia's responsibility to keep EU's heating systems functional. These are privileges bestowed, assuming the US government plays by the rules, which it isn't doing.

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Have we not learnt anything from US sanctions?

Basically what you suggest, really is only a 'one time' card that can be played and the consequences of it are hard to predict.

Basically something that only should be done if China decides it's time to reveal its hand, and not actually a small insignificant move.

Biscuits said:

The Chinese government is filled with appeasement theory idiots, it is in the people's interest to ensure these politicians are thrown out of their offices and replaced with officials that put China and her allies first in decisionmaking, not America first.

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Yawn. You mean that all these "appeasement theory idiots" have managed to develop China to become so strong that the US now fears its own shadow?

Seems to me like they are pretty good at their job. I am sure that the US and Europe would love to have some of these "appeasement theory idiots" now governing their countries.

I assume you are the same kind of person who was complaining when the trade war started about China "only" putting tariffs to $50 billion of US imports while the US put tariffs to $200 billion of Chinese imports.

Good thing that Chinese leaders are not Jai Hinders

Overbom said:

Yawn. You mean that all these "appeasement theory idiots" have managed to develop China to become so strong that the US now fears its own shadow?

Seems to me like they are pretty good at their job. I am sure that the US and Europe would love to have some of these "appeasement theory idiots" now governing their countries.

I assume you are the same kind of person who was complaining when the trade war started about China "only" putting tariffs to $50 billion of US imports while the US put tariffs to $200 billion of Chinese imports.

Good thing that Chinese leaders are not Jai Hinders

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It is hubris to think there arent internal saboteurs that need to be rooted out.

Western spies inside the govt have been caught in anti corruption investigations, the events in 2019 in HK revealed the existence of a 5th column on Chinese soil. Consider the following, even Xi Jinping who is generally a neutral politician that's neither obviously hawkish nor obviously pro-appeasement, has a daughter who spent significant time in the USA. Of course, you can say it was her own decision as an adult or whatever, but it is 1 case among many. One cannot fully trust politicians who seemingly have ties with enemy countries, unless they prove it continously through actions.

Yes, China's government is overall more well functioning and more representing of public opinion compared to absolute circus show oligarchy states. But that doesn't mean the corrupt should be underestimated.

Do you really think there's not a single Chinese politician right now who is working for pro-American payroll? Despite numerous fairly high ranking ones being caught in the past?

But I digress, this is off topic and probably belongs more to Chinese economy thread.

If you believe that America is carrying out a foolish policy of sanctioning a country capable of breaking that sanction, then it would be equally foolish for China to impose similar sanctions. The economic forces have made China an integral part of the global supply chain. They are basically the main provider of silicon and Neon gas going forward. Why scare off foreign businesses by cutting off supply when they are doing a great job of ignoring their government and intelligence communities and continuing to rely on China to supply them?

The more convenient and cheaper it is for foreign businesses to rely on China to supply them, the harder it is for foreign businesses to pass up that opportunity.

tphuang said:

If you believe that America is carrying out a foolish policy of sanctioning a country capable of breaking that sanction, then it would be equally foolish for China to impose similar sanctions. The economic forces have made China an integral part of the global supply chain. They are basically the main provider of silicon and Neon gas going forward. Why scare off foreign businesses by cutting off supply when they are doing a great job of ignoring their government and intelligence communities and continuing to rely on China to supply them?

The more convenient and cheaper it is for foreign businesses to rely on China to supply them, the harder it is for foreign businesses to pass up that opportunity.

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In the long term, dismantling ASML will be on China's "to-do" list anyway since the Netherlands has proven to be merely a US puppet - as soon as necessary capabilities are reached, ASML should get fully blocked out of the Chinese market, and suppliers. Next, it should go as far as refusing imports of chips made by fabs that utilize ASML equipment by leveraging China's status as the primary consumer of semiconductor products.

tphuang said:

If you believe that America is carrying out a foolish policy of sanctioning a country capable of breaking that sanction, then it would be equally foolish for China to impose similar sanctions. The economic forces have made China an integral part of the global supply chain. They are basically the main provider of silicon and Neon gas going forward. Why scare off foreign businesses by cutting off supply when they are doing a great job of ignoring their government and intelligence communities and continuing to rely on China to supply them?

The more convenient and cheaper it is for foreign businesses to rely on China to supply them, the harder it is for foreign businesses to pass up that opportunity.

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I take an even broader view. Great nations fall from within, not from without. The key to winning a great power struggle always starts with investment within oneself. It's wiser for China to expend its resources elevating China than to take down the US. The same goes for the US. America should be focusing on elevating American industries than to prevent China from developing Chinese ones.

If the US had just focused on developing American chip-related industries, China would've eventually become a key cog within the global semi supply chain, but the US could've maintained its position as an even more indispensable cog. As it stands now though, China is on track to dominate the entire supply chain EV/solar style rather than just being a key cog.

european_guy said:

Thanks for taking your time to read my messages.



Maybe I should have been more clear regarding the 3/4 years delay of SMEE compared to latest ASML DUV machine.

For what I know and I read in this thread, SMEE benchmark at the moment is ASML NXT1980Di machine. This has been stated in a technical comparison at national project level some months ago (sorry I don't find the sources now, but are referenced in this big thread) to verify if SMEE reached the becnhmark (BTW it didin't).

But the latest ASML DUV machine is the NXT2050i. They are 2 generations apart (there is also the NXT2000i in the middle). That's why I wrote 3/4 years.

So, I do think that SMEE is already at pre-comercialization level at this point, and for sure it will take far less than 4 years to launch their first DUV machine....but a possible NXT2050i equivalent machine by SMEE will still be a bit far in the future.

In practical terms, it means first SMEE DUV machine will be able to produce 28nm chips, but NXT2050i machine can be used to reach even 7nm. The most advanced nodes of SMIC and some others firms require the latter.

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The “2 generation gap” between the 2050 and 1950 isn’t that big in terms of basic performance parameters. It’s all based on the precision of the wafer alignment and the speed of the automated double scanning, which leans mostly on the technology level of the precision stepper motors used in the instrument. Technically you can do everything on a 1980 that’s done on a 2050, just slower and with smaller yield. The 2050’s value is in doing the same things the 1980 does but faster and more reliably. That’s what’s actually being enabled by the iteration in design. So I actually don’t think a 3-4 year gap is a necessary timeline to reach 2050 levels, or that matching the 2050’s performance is absolutely necessary for going to smaller nodes so long as production cost or time isn’t a prohibitive factor. Because SMEE’s instrument is not yet mass produced and because demand is pressing enough to justify faster and more costly R&D cycles it’s very possible for their immersion DUV upgrades to move much faster. ASML’s timeline for their 2050 scanner is more a reflection of the speed of demand formation with customers than actual engineering development time or difficulty.

tphuang said:

If you believe that America is carrying out a foolish policy of sanctioning a country capable of breaking that sanction, then it would be equally foolish for China to impose similar sanctions. The economic forces have made China an integral part of the global supply chain. They are basically the main provider of silicon and Neon gas going forward. Why scare off foreign businesses by cutting off supply when they are doing a great job of ignoring their government and intelligence communities and continuing to rely on China to supply them?

The more convenient and cheaper it is for foreign businesses to rely on China to supply them, the harder it is for foreign businesses to pass up that opportunity.

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@tphuang correct! Napoleon experiment with it and look what happen.

tokenanalyst said:

View attachment 92299
They dont seem quite accepting the idea of banning the export of this tools to China.
I still fail understand how this people equate hypersonic and EUV, like not having an EUV is not going to stop the Chinese or even the Russians (that its semiconductor industry is relative small) from developing this kind of weaponry.

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Today I stare at the news and what I saw astonished me.

The US told ASML to stop the export of all her lithography machines to China and accused China of "Tech-Terrorism".

"Tech-Terrorism"???

What is that?

Will "Tech-Genocide" be the next?