Chinese semiconductor industry

Status
Not open for further replies.
W

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
european_guy said:
I agree that probably is just yet another attempt that ASML + NL government will manage to neutralize. This Deputy Commerce Secretary Don Graves that pushed for the ban does not seem important enough to really make it happen. To make Holland to concede such important ban, US needs to push very hard and with some bigger guy.

Nevertheless the main point is that ASML currently is a "single point of failure" in the supply chain. If ASML is blocked to sell DUV in China, it will mean at least 3/4 years delay before SMEE provides a reliable comparable DUV alternative and it would be a huge blow to China IC companies.

US already realized that banning US equipment companies will not be enough because localization have already almost closed the gap, so ASML is their only chance.

I would expect that Chinese government realizes it too and makes some diplomatic efforts with Holland government to counterbalance US lobbying. Although it is clear that US has a much bigger influence in Europe, nevertheless Chinese government is very powerful and no European country is so fool to ignore it.
Click to expand...
China should NEVER again be this vulnerable when it comes to any items of technology that are worth having.
 
E

european_guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
sunnymaxi said:
i have read all your massages in this thread. you are wrong here.
Click to expand...

Thanks for taking your time to read my messages.

sunnymaxi said:
in first 6 months of 2022, ASML delivered 24 DUVs to Chinese mainland chip firms. in past 3 years China purchased tons of DUVs from Japan , ASML and second hand machines as well. first time in history China surpassed Taiwan and south Korea to become the largest customer of ASML in 2022. accounts their 34 percent sales. yes 34 percent . ASML also announced to hire 200 engineers for their Shanghai office. China have shit tons of DUVs. let ASML block DUV sales. EU already struggling with economy and inflation and huge pressure on EURO as well. so there will be hardly any affects on China IC companies.

i m little busy right now. but soon will tell you the real progress of indigenous DUV. we have a good news in Q42022 related domestically produce DUV.

so nothing will happen. let ASML block DUV.
Click to expand...

Maybe I should have been more clear regarding the 3/4 years delay of SMEE compared to latest ASML DUV machine.

For what I know and I read in this thread, SMEE benchmark at the moment is ASML NXT1980Di machine. This has been stated in a technical comparison at national project level some months ago (sorry I don't find the sources now, but are referenced in this big thread) to verify if SMEE reached the becnhmark (BTW it didin't).

But the latest ASML DUV machine is the NXT2050i. They are 2 generations apart (there is also the NXT2000i in the middle). That's why I wrote 3/4 years.

So, I do think that SMEE is already at pre-comercialization level at this point, and for sure it will take far less than 4 years to launch their first DUV machine....but a possible NXT2050i equivalent machine by SMEE will still be a bit far in the future.

In practical terms, it means first SMEE DUV machine will be able to produce 28nm chips, but NXT2050i machine can be used to reach even 7nm. The most advanced nodes of SMIC and some others firms require the latter.

​

 
W

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
lube said:
I remember the article quoting a trade hawk Dutch MP who heavily opposed a DUV ban by ASML despite strongly supporting the EUV export ban.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The idea of banning mature DUV technology from China in order to slow down progress towards 5nm is made in super bad faith. Everyone knows that. The EUV ban was only accepted because ASML being able to keep selling DUV was the implicit compromise.

Don't think the Japanese or the Dutch buy the idea it's anything other than Biden hawks wanting to send a message, at the cost of Nikon and ASML.
Click to expand...
The United States could very well still ensure that ASML and the Netherlands act against their own interests and indeed prevent them from selling anything to China that the United States disapproves of. That the United States is targeting even DUV equipment sales to China shows that the United States is hell bent on escalating its economic war on China, and the purpose of that is to retard China's technological progress capabilities in terms of IC chip manufacture. That is because the US is hell bent on reasserting its geopolitical dominance that has recently come strongly under threat and China is its foremost rival.
 
W

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
european_guy said:
Thanks for taking your time to read my messages.



Maybe I should have been more clear regarding the 3/4 years delay of SMEE compared to latest ASML DUV machine.

For what I know and I read in this thread, SMEE benchmark at the moment is ASML NXT1980Di machine. This has been stated in a technical comparison at national project level some months ago (sorry I don't find the sources now, but are referenced in this big thread) to verify if SMEE reached the becnhmark (BTW it didin't).

But the latest ASML DUV machine is the NXT2050i. They are 2 generations apart (there is also the NXT2000i in the middle). That's why I wrote 3/4 years.

So, I do think that SMEE is already at pre-comercialization level at this point, and for sure it will take far less than 4 years to launch their first DUV machine....but a possible NXT2050i equivalent machine by SMEE will still be a bit far in the future.

In practical terms, it means first SMEE DUV machine will be able to produce 28nm chips, but NXT2050i machine can be used to reach even 7nm. The most advanced nodes of SMIC and some others firms require the latter.

​

Click to expand...
Can
european_guy said:
Thanks for taking your time to read my messages.



Maybe I should have been more clear regarding the 3/4 years delay of SMEE compared to latest ASML DUV machine.

For what I know and I read in this thread, SMEE benchmark at the moment is ASML NXT1980Di machine. This has been stated in a technical comparison at national project level some months ago (sorry I don't find the sources now, but are referenced in this big thread) to verify if SMEE reached the becnhmark (BTW it didin't).

But the latest ASML DUV machine is the NXT2050i. They are 2 generations apart (there is also the NXT2000i in the middle). That's why I wrote 3/4 years.

So, I do think that SMEE is already at pre-comercialization level at this point, and for sure it will take far less than 4 years to launch their first DUV machine....but a possible NXT2050i equivalent machine by SMEE will still be a bit far in the future.

In practical terms, it means first SMEE DUV machine will be able to produce 28nm chips, but NXT2050i machine can be used to reach even 7nm. The most advanced nodes of SMIC and some others firms require the latter.

​

Click to expand...
Through multiple exposures using NXT1980i machines what nodes in nm can be produced? Can they go down to 10 nm?
 
E

european_guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
Exactly, it could affect future expansion in the short term, but it won't affect current capabilities, plus ASML has to honor its commitments to Chinese companies.​
Click to expand...

If I am not mistaken SMIC actually did buy and probably in part already paid the EUV machine in 2019.....it never arrived and it won't arrive in the foreseeable future.

tokenanalyst said:
Another problem is that you could speculate that the Chinese government could adopt a "sell the best or sell nothing" policy, where ASML and others might be restricted from competing against Chinese companies on older generation systems that already exist in China if they are not allow to sell what the Chinese consider their "best equipment" in the Chinese market. Like some kind of retaliation.​
Click to expand...

I really have no clue about if and what lobbying argumentation Chinese government through normal diplomatic channels (embassies exist for a reason) could adopt with Holland govrenment (not with ASML company), but if they do, I expect to be quite wide, well beyond semi equipment market, but involving the general cross-nations trading and collaborations.
 
E

european_guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Weaasel said:
The United States could very well still ensure that ASML and the Netherlands act against their own interests and indeed prevent them from selling anything to China that the United States disapproves of.
Click to expand...

After I saw war in Ukraine, with masochistic self-inflicted sanctions and war-prolonging delivery of weapons....I have unfortunately to agree with you.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top