Chinese semiconductor industry

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FairAndUnbiased

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I'm aware roughly what systems they have in their fab. YMTC makes both their array wafers and I/O wafers. I now for certain, other guys relocated litho tools from their DRAM operations and that YMTC buys their new (they didn't have an old DRAM fab with old equipments to spare).

that's a lot of thing you "said". no way I could've inferred all of those from what little you actually said.

you basically only said:
"I don't see their technical advantage" and "if prices are even comparable (they won't be, China always does it cheaper) then YMTC's product is superior to Micron."

From what little you said, in response,
I tried to explained cost function and not technical advantage is more important. I also explained the intrinsic advantage Micron has over YMTC in response to what you said. I assumed comparison of intrinsic cost function delta without any external assist. But you are correct, if there's subsidies that would allow YMTC to sell below cost then this is an inherent advantage they have over Micron.

I've done a financial & operation analysis of all 3D NAND players based on their installed base, and process flow, etc. Points I shared before are what we got out of our analysis. I didn't see a "YMTC does it cheaper...then is superior" situation with the result of the analysis. Of course, my analysis could be incomplete or inaccurate.

My intent is not to steal your thunder or question you. Just trying to share findings from my previous analysis. I prefer not to debate hypotheticals. I had outlined very specific points that we thought differentiates the other players from YMTC. If you reach different conclusion with your own detailed analysis, then would be happy to discuss further and learn anything new you uncover.
I'm surprised that you have such broad insight into multiple different companies, especially into what should be proprietary data (i.e. their detailed supplier situation), if you're working in a technical position and not a management or business one.

For instance what I know officially is limited to the technical aspects of products and processes. I am told only (limited) business data of my own company, not of our competitors or customers beyond what they publicize. Now from projects that come across my desk, I can deduce what is happening at a competitors or customers. But I can't be absolutely sure, because it's just bits and pieces. I can't say that "there is absolutely 0 foundry outsourcing happening at YMTC" for instance, even if I don't see that occurring, because I don't have the full picture.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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@hvpc

The reason why I question many things you say is because scientists and engineers at my company don't see a full business picture of the entire industry, let alone highly detailed proprietary data from multiple competitors, suppliers and customers that often don't want this data to be found. From what I got from projects across my desk, at least one certain fab has equal or greater levels of secrecy, and take their proprietary data very seriously. I can't imagine YMTC would be open with extremely sensitive supply data like whether they use foundry services or not, and foundries are loathe to disclose their customers as well unless very well publicized ones, with permission. Customer lists are highly proprietary.

Even managers don't know supply chain details at multiple competitors. They are narrowly focused on a few goals i.e. delivery of key R&D projects, maintaining normal operations, firefighting quality events that pop up, etc.
 

broadsword

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I'm surprised that you have such broad insight into multiple different companies, especially into what should be proprietary data (i.e. their detailed supplier situation), if you're working in a technical position and not a management or business one.

For instance what I know officially is limited to the technical aspects of products and processes. I am told only (limited) business data of my own company, not of our competitors or customers beyond what they publicize. Now from projects that come across my desk, I can deduce what is happening at a competitors or customers. But I can't be absolutely sure, because it's just bits and pieces. I can't say that "there is absolutely 0 foundry outsourcing happening at YMTC" for instance, even if I don't see that occurring, because I don't have the full picture.

My guess is he was or is, in management of manufacturing rather than directly in engineering, though that was where he cut his teeth beforehand.
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
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It seems quite clear that for the time being YMTC will be limited only by its production capacity of about 100K wpm, that should increase to 300K wpm next year thanks to the opening of their new fab at the end of the year (if there won't be "surprises").

YMTC lives in a kind of privileged situation now, not a market one, mainly, due to various reasons, it will sell anything that is able to produce. It's priority at the moment seems to be to ramp up capacity before the "faucet" of foreign equipments closes.

And who created this privileged position for YMTC ? - Not China, but the West, led by the US, for starting this economic war on China.

The situation is that YMTC does not even need to have products better than Micron or any other memory manufactures. It just need to have a equivalent product just as good and it will find eager and ready Chinese customers wishing to reduce their business risk.

We all wish YMTC to be competitive with high end products too. But so what if it does not. Every single memory chip sold by YMTC will displace an imported. And the market share will never be recovered in the foreseeable future.
 

ansy1968

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And who created this privileged position for YMTC ? - The West, led by the US, for starting this economic war on China.

The situation is that YMTC does not even need to have products better than Micron or any other memory manufactures. It just need to have a equivalent product just as good and it will find eager and ready Chinese customers wishing to reduce their business risk.

We all wish YMTC to be competitive with high end products too. But so what if it does not. Every single memory chip sold by YMTC will displace an imported. And the market share will never be recovered in the foreseeable future.
@Rettam Stacf bro when in doubt follow @superdog quotes " Getting a great sculpting knife doesn't mean you can immediately become a great sculptor." That's what it is bro, YMTC, SMIC and others are waiting for the next tools BUT they need to sharpen their Skills with whatever tools they have in their disposal. SMIC with its Dual Approach strategy is the template and I think all the Chinese IC company are doing the same.
 

hvpc

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm surprised that you have such broad insight into multiple different companies, especially into what should be proprietary data (i.e. their detailed supplier situation), if you're working in a technical position and not a management or business one.

For instance what I know officially is limited to the technical aspects of products and processes. I am told only (limited) business data of my own company, not of our competitors or customers beyond what they publicize. Now from projects that come across my desk, I can deduce what is happening at a competitors or customers. But I can't be absolutely sure, because it's just bits and pieces. I can't say that "there is absolutely 0 foundry outsourcing happening at YMTC" for instance, even if I don't see that occurring, because I don't have the full picture.
Agree. Nothing is absolute. I don't know for sure if YMTC do outsource some stuff to foundry. They may very well procure wafers from foundry. I'm speaking more in general on how they make their wafers in general.

This is not a secret nor proprietary. When YMTC first started, from what I was told, the I/O wafers did come from XMC, but when YMTC got bigger, they now make all the wafers themselves.
 

hvpc

Junior Member
Registered Member
@hvpc

The reason why I question many things you say is because scientists and engineers at my company don't see a full business picture of the entire industry, let alone highly detailed proprietary data from multiple competitors, suppliers and customers that often don't want this data to be found. From what I got from projects across my desk, at least one certain fab has equal or greater levels of secrecy, and take their proprietary data very seriously. I can't imagine YMTC would be open with extremely sensitive supply data like whether they use foundry services or not, and foundries are loathe to disclose their customers as well unless very well publicized ones, with permission. Customer lists are highly proprietary.

Even managers don't know supply chain details at multiple competitors. They are narrowly focused on a few goals i.e. delivery of key R&D projects, maintaining normal operations, firefighting quality events that pop up, etc.
Bro, by all means, do question what I say. I wouldn't want all of you to take what I or anybody say at face value. We should do our due diligent to read in between the lines and to question, to verify. This is how we sharpen our swords.

During all of my research for work and in private, I find all articles, news, even first hand information to be less than 100% true. I question everything and cross reference more sources to validate or discredit. I encourage you to do the same.

If what I said is credible then it will be proven so; if incorrect, I'd like to be corrected so I can recalibrate with the correct info. I share with the expectation this is a discussion, so it's a given that I'm looking for feedback or rebuttal.

I don't exactly know how things are in your company. But, in my previous role in a foundry, it was within our job responsibilities to understand what competition is doing. We keep an eye on all their publications and also what they are doing through informal channels. In my current role, it's expected we know what our customers are doing from technical, operational and financial aspects. So we do spend time monitoring, compiling, and analyzing such info. And we also share and discuss information freely in between departments and with our peer companies; for example, we have access to marketing view. So I would have to disagree with what you said in the last paragraph. All companies operate differently, so projecting the norm at your company as the norm for other companies seemed a bit presumptuous don't you think?
 
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