Chinese semiconductor industry
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their aim is A76~A78 level of efficiency for the second iteration (currently it is already @ A73 level)
.It's good to go all Chinese and a major boost for local equipment provider and supply chain, as @WTAN had previously mentioned U-precision major factory expansion will be finished in 2023, it will double the production and triple in 2024. The projected completion of the Arizona FAB in 2024 is in doubt and from the looks of it maybe late 2025 or early 2026 with an excerpt from GizmoChina below.
According to a report, the chip makers that are planning on expanding their production capacity will have to see an additional wait time that might be around a year and a half, or possibly even longer. This delay arrive due to the long delivery time of key equipment that is needed for the expansion. In other words, the plans to alleviate the semiconductor shortage are also suffering from supply constraints as well.
As of right now, the leading chip tool manufacturers like Applied Materials, KLA, Lam Research, and ASML have warned their customers that the wait time for certain crucial machines might be up to 18 months long. Furthermore, multiple sources have also told NikkeiAsia that the supply constraints have caused shortages in practically everything, ranging from lenses, valves, and pumps to microcontrollers, engineering plastics and even electronic modules as well.
2 days ago — According to a NikkeiAsia report, the chip makers that are planning on expanding their production capacity will have to see an additional wait ...
According to a report, the chip makers that are planning on expanding their production capacity will have to see an additional wait time that might be around a year and a half, or possibly even longer. This delay arrive due to the long delivery time of key equipment that is needed for the expansion. In other words, the plans to alleviate the semiconductor shortage are also suffering from supply constraints as well.
As of right now, the leading chip tool manufacturers like Applied Materials, KLA, Lam Research, and ASML have warned their customers that the wait time for certain crucial machines might be up to 18 months long. Furthermore, multiple sources have also told NikkeiAsia that the supply constraints have caused shortages in practically everything, ranging from lenses, valves, and pumps to microcontrollers, engineering plastics and even electronic modules as well.
2 days ago — According to a NikkeiAsia report, the chip makers that are planning on expanding their production capacity will have to see an additional wait ...
@ansy1968 Could you explain how you arrive at the 2025/2026 delayed timing for tsmc Arizona fab?
NikkeiAsia article said the tool move-in is delayed to March 2023, which is consistent with the latest tool delivery timing communicated by tsmc to their suppliers. This doesn’t point to a production delay of two years.
Second question, how big are you expecting U-Precision’s volume to be? How many scanner systems would this volume support? I wonder if this will be enough to support all SMIC’s expansion plan. Any thought or opinion on this?
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@hvpc construction delay about 6 months so early 2025, add in equipment delay and technical personnel training and recruitment so my speculative projection may prove correct since the original schedule of 2024 is based on investment projection anyway.
From our esteem member @tinrobert, regarding ASML severe supply chain mismanagement.
tinrobert
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Registered MemberI just wrote this article about ASML and SMEE. It was an Editor Pick on Seeking Alpha, but the vitriol from comments is incredible. Please read the article and also the comments.ansy1968 said:
@FairAndUnbiased bro I'm waiting from you, @krautmeister @WTAN @foofy @tokenanalyst and others an analysis comparison, I know with spare info regarding the SMEE DUVL (like the MMO 2.5nm SMEE vs the 2.1nm of Nikon) but I like to know your views.Sorry for being a nuisance.
tinrobert
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Registered MemberLast week I sent an article I wrote in Seeking Alpha on ASML and China, and promised a new article this week. See it attached as it was published today. It's entitled
ASML's Current Battleground Now In China On Several Fronts
I welcome comments, which will help in future articles, as I am in the US and most readers are closer to what's going on in China.4 units last year ,12 units this year and when the expansion is finished next year 24 units. SMIC Beijing FAB will be finished this May as posted by @foofy and that is a large FAB capable of producing 120,000 WPM and from @WTAN previous post will be using indigenous equipment. OHhhh!!! I Forgot, Huawei Shanghai Fab is also due for completion this May, it may delayed by a month due to the lockdown.
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How many fabs is huawei building exactly and which one is the larges/most advanced? So far I've heard news of 1 in shanghai 1 in wuhan and 1 in shenzhen
@sndef888 bro from @WTAN the Shanghai FAB under ICRD supervision is capable of producing 20,000 WPM and will be using SMEE SSA800 DUVL, since it's new will be the most advance, while the Wuhan FAB is speculated to use SMEE 65nm DUVL and are producing 45nm chips. Regarding the Shenzhen FAB, SMIC remain silent regarding any JV (under duress because of the sanction) , BUT I think there is a collaboration as Huawei will definitely establish a FAB since Shenzhen is their home turf and will have the same tech level with Shanghai FAB.
I've had a Eureka moment, maybe that SMIC Shenzhen FAB and JV with Huawei is one of the same project. I hope I'm wrong BUT the timing is too coincidental.
Dec 7, 2020 — It includes FAB Production Plant, CUB Power Station, PMD Software ... Huawei will start making 45nm chips next year and will progress to ...
Oct 26, 2021 — SMIC has estimated to spend US$2.3 billion on the new fab, with volume production beginning in 2022. The initial capacity will be 20,000 wafers ...
Dec 30, 2021 — The industry recently reported that Huawei intends to build a fab in Shenzhen in conjunction with SMIC, the largest foundry in China
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@ansy1968 Those are some pretty interesting takes. I understand your logic, now. Thanks for explaining.
On the tsmc fab, I am still not convinced it will be delayed that much from 2024 to end of 2025. Assuming tool move-in will commence in 2023Q2, this (3 quarters) would leave plenty of time for new personnel to get ready for production. But, that's a big assumption if tools move-in by 23Q2 or if it will be delayed more.
The U-precision volume don't look enough to support entire SMIC's Beijing fab. And it will be too late. Bejing tool move-in is later this year, so it looks like it will be ASML tools, again. Or do you see this differently?
How do you know their volume is not enough? Do you have any information on their manufacturing capacity?
Either way i think Chinese need to accelerate their semi independence efforts, looks like a full American ban is getting closer and closer.
The Joe Biden administration is trying to keep China in check in the global semiconductor industry. The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence of the United States recently proposed a policy to ban exports to China of semiconductor manufacturing equipment including DUV equipment for immersion ArF lithography. Under the circumstances, South Korean semiconductor manufacturers in China, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, are expressing concerns because their memory chip plants in China may be affected once the restrictions are actually implemented.
The Joe Biden administration is trying to keep China in check in the global semiconductor industry. The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence of the United States recently proposed a policy to ban exports to China of semiconductor manufacturing equipment including DUV equipment for immersion ArF lithography. Under the circumstances, South Korean semiconductor manufacturers in China, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, are expressing concerns because their memory chip plants in China may be affected once the restrictions are actually implemented.
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