antiterror13
Brigadier
Yeapp the size of the wafer looks not 12" ... and I'd bet it was GaN
Interesting that the revenue is 220B Renminbi or roughly $35B, quite high
CETC is the main shareholder of Hikvision, ~42%
Chinese semiconductor industry
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Yeapp the size of the wafer looks not 12" ... and I'd bet it was GaN
Interesting that the revenue is 220B Renminbi or roughly $35B, quite high
CETC is the main shareholder of Hikvision, ~42%
@antiterror13 Sir thanks for the compliment , I'm flattered and coming from you it really make my day, with that after seeing @tokenanalyst post @Oldschool suggested why not CETC partner with the Russian, it make sense since both are sanction anyway.Yes, and don't forget to include @ansy1968 as well
Oldschool
Junior Member
Registered MemberToday at 4:58 AMNew
Hi
Today I saw US secretary of commerce Raymondo threaten to put Chinese companies out of business especially SMIC if they help out Russia.
Well, my take is if Russia partner up with CETC which is China state enterprise already under sanction, it can circumvent US sanctions.
CETC is do it all state company , not only it has ion implantation but also manufacture DUV lithography.
Previously, I posted CETC 2021 roadmap for lithography production.
Cetc 2021 production roadmap
Cetc production of lithography equipmnent in 2021 is 20 sets including 2 machines for 65nm and rest of 18 for 0.13um, 0.35um. it's 65nm lithography can produce 45nm digital chips.
CETC also a IDM, it does produce chips. It can manufacture for Russia
Almost all military grade chips are produced by CETC.
I have purchased small quantities of chips from Alibaba like 4 pieces of Allwinner and Rockchip SOC. Likewise Russia can purchase off the shelf chips to beat the sanction.
Russia also can partner with Huawei which already under US death list.
US's threat is notwithstanding.
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Oldschool
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Registered MemberToday at 5:16 AMNew
Huawei will have a field day in supplying all the commercial electronics to Russia in next few years from cellphone, 5G infrastructure, desktops, laptop.
They are very involved in lithography, they probably have one of the most indigenous semiconductor fabs in the planet, they are big semiconductor equipment manufacturer, i don't even think they buy directly equipment from from market companies like Naura or Amec as they try to maintain this "semipermeable barrier" between civilian sector and the military but they definitely sell their equipment to the civilian sector, solar and IC sector.
Me too, it will be difficult to control exports of technology to Russia when someone can simple buy like everything in the open market in China by using third parties just by crossing the border with a truck. I don't think the Chinese are going to enforce export controls for the West in their own borders. But i think the U.S. sanctions are mainly for fabs or chips for military use not for end products. even then is going to be a hell of trouble to enforce.
A red line is in general a weakness because gives your adversary a fixed target on which to focus. I see one actor aiming to escalate Taiwan situation in an Ukraine scenario one and another actor really worried by this possibility....guess what? These 2 actors are not the ones you might expect.
US dream would be to make China a pariah state and to reserve to China the "Russia treatment". China at the moment barfs (no disrespect, read later) a lot about Taiwan, but? What it really means? We use to say "the dog that barfs does not bite"
According to Intel plan, after 2025-2026 Intel will gain tech capability to replace TSMC, and at that time TSMC will have also built a US fab. At that point the "collateral damage" for US to escalate Taiwan even to a war, will be much lower than today's. Actually knocking off the entire Taiwan IC manufacturing could be even a good thing for US in the long term.
US is the master of brinkmanship (), and they can wait: they started NATO east-expansion in 1994 ( after) and coup changed Ukraine regime in 2014, installing a pro-NATO one that pushed the tension until Putin made (in my humble opinion) his life's biggest mistake in 2022.
I would not be surprised to see US to escalate tension in Taiwan hard after 2025 (just in time for the new US administration).
I really don't know what Taiwan people think of their future. I'd guess they are not blind.
@european_guy bro nice analysis, here I can bring some insight since my brother in law is a Taiwanese, He is a proud Chinese BUT he love Taiwan, its a regional thing like me I love Fujian since my father came from Jinjiang City. Unless China invade he will fight, nobody want his home occupied by intruders and China knows it. He and I had a discussion and he think Taiwan future is China, It's so obvious , So why vote for DPP, well for him KMT is more corrupt, so IF there is a viable KMT candidate they will vote KMT. Taiwan politics is like that of a bamboo, it sway here and there depend upon the wind of change. The Eastern wind is China and the Western wind is the US, due to climate change the Eastern wind had become stronger so preparation is made to accommodate it.
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@european_guy and to add you're right the US want to escalate by 2025, the reason with so many FABS coming on line especially in China, Europe and the US that there will be a massive GLUT. So Taiwan FAB is expendable with add bonus of TSMC technical expertise migrating to the US as a safe haven from war, win (Arizona FAB will be viable) win (TSMC highly train technician)for the US.
China was weak and still is weak compared to the America and its allies. That's why they need to stay low for some more time.
According to my friend that works at Intel, the corporate culture there is way too relaxed to be competitive with TSMC. He thinks that China will catch up in the next few years due to the drive and efficiency. I wouldn't read too much into Intel plan. They haven't succeeded much recently.
I actually don't know how TSMC's Arizona plant will work out. Arizona is where people go for retirement. It is a nice hot and dry place where people demand work/life balance. TSMC is used to imposing strict work first style on its workers. I would not be surprised if TSMC is already having second thoughts. There was a movie recently called that showcased basically the culture clash between Chinese management and American workers. These things rarely work out well.
From my last trip there, my sense is that most Taiwanese people want to have their de facto independence and not be under PRC rule (can't blame them). But culturally, there is not much difference between Taipei and any large city in southern China. And a lot of them (especially the elites) have more or less accepted that Taiwan will not stay independent in its current for that long. American elites/politicians completely do not understand Taiwan. Even current DPP government is trying its hardest to not provoke mainland. At the end of the day, Taiwan has a say in its future. America is not capable of pushing Taiwan to do something it is unwilling to do.
Why does DPP and Tsai English say such stupid shit then? Is it just to retain the self-hating voters? Why is Taiwanese media so hostile to mainland? Like that time the Taiwanese athlete wore a China uniform and lost all her sponsors.
Is not rumormongering, the are already shipped the machine to SMIC and YTMC. They and the others companies are now in a patent blitzkrieg in immersion lithography. They usually don't announced until is accepted by the client. They didn't announced the SSB520 3D IC lithography machine until was a accepted by their client in 2021 but if you research the machine was delivered much early than that.
Plus now that SMIC is on the entity list and SMEE on the unverified list both companies have good reason to keep quiet out of fear for more restrictions.
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