Chinese purchase of Su-35

AeroEngineer said:

You know what I think ??

I think that the Russians offered the Chinese Su-35S which is the same model Russians are using, however, China thinks that it is garbage. Su-35S is much better than the Su-30MKI but now it is 2013. China has J-15, J-16, J-10B not forget to mention J-20 and J-31.

So basically China told Russia to FU@K off with its Su-35S and told them that Su-35 must come with advanced Chinese avionics, weapon systems. Russia know that the avionics and weapons are what is making them money, therefore the deal can NOT be reached.

China does not want or need the Su-35S, Russia however desperately want to sell it to make money to fund its crappy under funded PAK-FA. Russia knows that 117S engine is the only selling point for the Su-35, but now it is over. The new J-20 2003, and 2004 prototypes showed that it is using AL-31FM1.

Game OVER !!

Click to expand...

I would say Russia still has a slight lead in engines but China is catching up fast. Once all the bugs are ironed out and they have the tooling and infrastructure in place to mass produce engines like the Taihang, WS15 etc then it is really game over for Russia. I can see China being a major arms exporter after the mid 2020s and beyond.

antiterror13 said:

What would happen had the Russian "blackmailed" the Chinese to ban selling AL-31, including AL-31FM1 .... unless the Chinese buy SU-35 ? ..... what do you think ?

Click to expand...

blackmail with what? Mao's boxer shorts? Trying to force a buy with the tactic of "all or nothing" with China would only work from a position of strength. Russia is not in that position anymore the Chinese may not be ahead of the Russians in terms of engine development but they are catching up and as they stand today if the Russians had played "Vlad's way or the highway" the Chinese would have just installed a lower tech indigenous engine in there fighters and then retrofitted with newer versions as they became available. For Russia this would have hurt. The Russian economy has only three staples it can rely on titanium, Fuel and weapons both small arms and heavy arms. As it stands today China is only really buying fuel and titanium with the occasional sale of heavy arms and as time goes by that latter is less and less. So for Russia sales to China are a need. Keeping the Chinese invested in Russian products and the hard currency is a must. So Russian negotiations were in a weaker hand. The Russian negotiator would have also seen the potential of the Chinese production as a possible exports assist.

antiterror13 said:

What would happen had the Russian "blackmailed" the Chinese to ban selling AL-31, including AL-31FM1 .... unless the Chinese buy SU-35 ? ..... what do you think ?

Click to expand...

For the Chinese that would be a dish breaking event between the two countries. The Chinese would slow down their fighter programs by a few of years to allow their domestic engine industry to bridge the gap, so the Russians would gain very little. In return, the Chinese would greatly stiffen up their position on any trade, investment, economic, and territorial agreements that might be negotiated between the two countries for a long time to come. This could be very costly to Russia economically, and could even endanger Russian territorial integrity in the Far East, which would be Moscow's nightmare.

If there is one thing the Chinese foreign policy has been relatively consistent since 1950 is a willingness to endure almost any sacrifice rather than allow any foreign power to position itself to blackmail China. The demonstrated this during the Korean war, the Taiwan Strait crisis, the hard break with Soviet Union in the early 1960s, the Vietnam war, the hard break with Vietnam, the soft break with the west following Tiannamen.

What's new in the AL-31FM1?

antiterror13 said:

What would happen had the Russian "blackmailed" the Chinese to ban selling AL-31, including AL-31FM1 .... unless the Chinese buy SU-35 ? ..... what do you think ?

Click to expand...

Why would they do that ? AL-31 , even AL-31FM1 is basically "low tier" or "economic class" of engines now . You do not "blackmail" your customers with something they could easily replace with other products from other producers .

Class of engines above 140 kN is different matter , because China could not easily obtain them . Therefore , Russia does "blackmail" China with Su-35 purchase , which would probably be concluded next year .

In business the proper term o think is "playing hard ball" which in commercial enterprise the Chinese have become masters of. Blackmail is where in you hold another persons secrets and make demands.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

blackmail with what? Mao's boxer shorts? Trying to force a buy with the tactic of "all or nothing" with China would only work from a position of strength. Russia is not in that position anymore the Chinese may not be ahead of the Russians in terms of engine development but they are catching up and as they stand today if the Russians had played "Vlad's way or the highway" the Chinese would have just installed a lower tech indigenous engine in there fighters and then retrofitted with newer versions as they became available. For Russia this would have hurt. The Russian economy has only three staples it can rely on titanium, Fuel and weapons both small arms and heavy arms. As it stands today China is only really buying fuel and titanium with the occasional sale of heavy arms and as time goes by that latter is less and less. So for Russia sales to China are a need. Keeping the Chinese invested in Russian products and the hard currency is a must. So Russian negotiations were in a weaker hand. The Russian negotiator would have also seen the potential of the Chinese production as a possible exports assist.

Click to expand...

What do you mean - hard currency? With Mr. Bernanke "printing" $85b a month the Dollar has definitely ceased to be a hard currency and an ever larger part of trade between Russia and China is made in Rubles and Yuan. Trade between China and Russia consists of much more than oil, gas, titanium and weapons and any imbalance might be covered by Chinese investment in Russia. There is therefore no opportunity for rudeness in discussions about the possible sale of Su-35's.

antiterror13 said:

What would happen had the Russian "blackmailed" the Chinese to ban selling AL-31, including AL-31FM1 .... unless the Chinese buy SU-35 ? ..... what do you think ?

Click to expand...

What short memories we have. They Russians already tried this, with the J11A.

China said they no longer needed knock down kits after 90 out of 200 ordered were delivered. The Russians refused to supply AL31Fs for Chinese built J11As, so the Chinese installed WS10A in their Flankers.

It did cause some delays, with that famous picture of a line if J11s sitting outside SAC sans engines, but it was only a slight delay, and because of that, the WS10A and other Chinese domestic engine projects got a big funding and priority boost, and the Russians lost tens, maybe hundreds of millions in engine sales directly, and significantly more in other potential sales as China froze all other ongoing deals. I need to check the dates, but the J11 engine dispute might have been the final nail that killed the PLAAF Il76 and tanker deals, and that hurt the Russians a lot.

The Russians already played that card and lost. If they refused to sell any more AL31s to China again, it might cause some short term delays and headaches, but after a year or two, everything will be straightened out, and Russia will come out worse off again.

Chuck, you also need to double check your history, because China has no outstanding territorial disputes with Russia, and the ties between the two are strong enough to withstand some commercial disputes. There was no massive falling out last time Russia tried to be cute with engines, and the backlash would be smaller if they tried again on account of China's stronger domestic engine sector and reduced reliance on Russian engines.

At the end of the day, a few generals or CEOs with ruffled feathers is small potatoes when it comes to the strategic and diplomatic relationship between the Russian and Chinese governments.

plawolf said:

What short memories we have. They Russians already tried this, with the J11A.

China said they no longer needed knock down kits after 90 out of 200 ordered were delivered. The Russians refused to supply AL31Fs for Chinese built J11As, so the Chinese installed WS10A in their Flankers.

It did cause some delays, with that famous picture of a line if J11s sitting outside SAC sans engines, but it was only a slight delay, and because of that, the WS10A and other Chinese domestic engine projects got a big funding and priority boost, and the Russians lost tens, maybe hundreds of millions in engine sales directly, and significantly more in other potential sales as China froze all other ongoing deals. I need to check the dates, but the J11 engine dispute might have been the final nail that killed the PLAAF Il76 and tanker deals, and that hurt the Russians a lot.

The Russians already played that card and lost. If they refused to sell any more AL31s to China again, it might cause some short term delays and headaches, but after a year or two, everything will be straightened out, and Russia will come out worse off again.

Chuck, you also need to double check your history, because China has no outstanding territorial disputes with Russia, and the ties between the two are strong enough to withstand some commercial disputes. There was no massive falling out last time Russia tried to be cute with engines, and the backlash would be smaller if they tried again on account of China's stronger domestic engine sector and reduced reliance on Russian engines.

At the end of the day, a few generals or CEOs with ruffled feathers is small potatoes when it comes to the strategic and diplomatic relationship between the Russian and Chinese governments.

Click to expand...

Wolf, you need to look beyond superficial de jure appearence meant to amuse school children and to kick the can down the road, and look instead at de facto currents and trends in strength, wealth, clout, and demographics to assess what would likely happen, instead of fall head over heels over what people say they want to happen.

It has been convenient for china and Russia to paste over their past territorial differences for sake of appearence, for now, as china has pasted over territorial conflict with many other of its neighnors, for now, for the sake of an peaceful evironment for the hitherto weak and vulnerable china.

But the can is still there. If china were to develop at 7.5% a year for 20 more years, then what has already happened in eastern siberia over the last 20 years would but a trend towards real reason for territorial comflict than had ever existed between china and russia before since the end of Russo-Japanese war. Chinese leverage over the economy, population and resource future of Siberia will inexorbly increase. Russia is far too self important to willingly part with its dominant role, and far too chauvinsitic to resign itself to becoming china's Canada. yet Russia is far too weak and underpolpulated to resist or balance Chinese influences in Siberia on its own. Sooner or later Russia would seek leverage over china by allying herself with Japan or the US. From china's perspective Russia will sooner or later become part of anti-china containment, and in the long run the weakest link in that containment ring.

As to china not doing much to retaliate in 2002, this is not 2002. The menu of acceptable and practicable ptions before china has expanded greatly since 2002. It will expand much more still by 2022. The 052, 054 and other gadgets discussed with relish here is not the least of the reasons. Chinese foreign policy will become more willing to resort to a hard line the more the country's military forces feel up to containing the worst possible fallout any resulting crisis, and the country's economy and finances robust enough to weather these fallouts without undue damage.

chuck731 said:

But the can is still there. If china were to develop at 7.5% a year for 20 more years, then what has already happened in eastern siberia over the last 20 years would but a trend towards real reason for territorial comflict than had ever existed between china and russia before since the end of Russo-Japanese war.

Click to expand...

This is more of Western wishful thinking then reality . As long as both Russia and China have means to deter each other (i.e. nuclear weapons) , large scale conflicts are excluded . Both sides would have far more to lose then to gain from this .

On the other side , given Chinese territorial disputes with Japan , Philippines and Vietnam , not to mention US interference with Taiwanese business , partnership with Russia is logical and beneficial for China in next 10-20 years .