Chinese Naval Threat to SEA?

bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
Red__Sword.. I'm very confused reading your post.

By the way.. I do not ever post using metaphors or hidden messages. I just make statements. What you read is what I intended to state in a straight forward manner. Period.

The US Navy has been operating freely on the open sea since the days of the Great White Fleet over 100 years ago..within the parameters of maritime law.

And... Naval drills are planned much in advance of said drills taking place.
 

vesicles

Colonel
Of course, both the US and China share the Pacific ocean. However, my question is can you claim the front lawn of your neighbor's across the street as yours? You both share the same street. You are on one side while your neighbor across the street is on the other side. Does that make you the owner of properties on both side of the street? Obviously, the South China Sea is close to the China's side of the whole thing. It's called "South China Sea" for a reason. So, theoretically speak, the US has no business in this part of the world.

In actuality, it would be more and more difficult for the US to maintain control in the SEA. With China growing stronger and the SEA being so close to China, logistically it would be a nightmare for the US to maintain a tight grip of the SEA. Financially, it would cost the US at least 10 times than China to control the same area, not to mention manpower, equipment, etc.

And sooner or later, China will start pushing back once it feels that it has the capability. This is not a matter of "if" but "when". What will the US do? Starting a war for the SEA? I don't think the SEA is that important to the US that would warrant a war with China. So sooner or later, the US will have to give it up, albeit kicking and screaming. Obviously, the US didn't see the SEA as important until China becomes stronger. So owning the SEA does not present actual benefit to the US, except to contain China. And we know China cannot be contained. A small country? maybe. But a nation the size of China? Impossible... especially so when the US is so far away from China. If the US is next door to China, there may be more that the US can do. However, with the US located on the other side of the Pacific Ocean? Containing China is an impossible task...
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Of course, both the US and China share the Pacific ocean. However, my question is can you claim the front lawn of your neighbor's across the street as yours? ... So, theoretically speak, the US has no business in this part of the world.
The problem with your analogy is that in between the two houses is not just a street...first, it's like an eight lane superhighway, and there are also several other houses and businesses seperating the two homes.

In addition, the US with Korea, Australia, Japan, etc., etc. has close friends who have invited them pnto their "lawns", and the South China Sea is a part of all of that. That Sea is not part of China's "lawn". It's just closer to CHina, But in order to get to its friends and to ensure free passage, the US passes through there.

Just like China does to get to Pakistan and its growing list of friends in Africa and South and Central America.
 

solarz

Brigadier
The problem with your analogy is that in between the two houses is not just a street...first, it's like an eight lane superhighway, and there are also several other houses and businesses seperating the two homes.

In addition, the US with Korea, Australia, Japan, etc., etc. has close friends who have invited them pnto their "lawns", and the South China Sea is a part of all of that. That Sea is not part of China's "lawn". It's just closer to CHina, But in order to get to its friends and to ensure free passage, the US passes through there.

Just like China does to get to Pakistan and its growing list of friends in Africa and South and Central America.

Except neither Korea nor Australia nor Japan are anywhere close to the South China sea...

Your analogy is more like this:

You and your neighbor is having a dispute over where exactly your yard ends and his begins. The guy living across the street decides that because he passes by you and your neighbor's houses on his way to work, he has a stake in your dispute.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Except neither Korea nor Australia nor Japan are anywhere close to the South China sea...

Your analogy is more like this:

You and your neighbor is having a dispute over where exactly your yard ends and his begins. The guy living across the street decides that because he passes by you and your neighbor's houses on his way to work, he has a stake in your dispute.
So, you believe that China can claim the entirety of the South China Sea as its own and conrol what vessels pass through any of it?

Because unless you do, the analogy stands. And if you do, it is a claim that no country that I am aware of will accept. BTW, those three countries are not the only three that the US has treaties with.
 

paintgun

Senior Member
So, you believe that China can claim the entirety of the South China Sea as its own and conrol what vessels pass through any of it?

Because unless you do, the analogy stands. And if you do, it is a claim that no country that I am aware of will accept. BTW, those three countries are not the only three that the US has treaties with.

how about South China Sea sea passage remains the same, but PLAN as the dominance presence instead of USN? i believe that's always what China has in mind, instead of claiming the whole SCS as territorial possession
 

Geographer

Junior Member
Suggesting that it was time for China to take over Asian Security, would be viewed with horror by most other SE.Asian countries. IMO they would view it as China taking back her historic control over these areas.
Equally relieving for these countries in the Pacific is the fact that American presence in the Pacific is preventing China from pursuing her strategy of declaring the second island chain as in her core interests.
Southeast Asian nations' fears are totally misplaced, and I think subtlety encouraged by the United States. This all goes back to the Domino Theory when the U.S. put the fear of God into the region about the spread of Communism. "The reds are coming!" warned American diplomats, "So be pro-active and get them before they get you." And they went after leftists hard in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia.

There is a lot of racism in the region against the Chinese because they have been more economically successful than other ethnic groups. They are like the Jews of Southeast Asia. There were race riots targeting Chinese in Malaysia in the 1960s and Indonesia are recently as the 1990s. The Vietnamese government pushed much of their Chinese minority out starting in 1979 in retaliation for the Sino-Vietnamese border war. Going back to the Malay Emergency in the 1950s and Suharto's quasi-genocide against Chinese leftists, there has long been an insidious association between Chinese people and communism.

China's foreign policy since 1949 has been extremely benign compared to any other world power in the last 60 years. This is the fundamental thing the "China threat" alarmists get wrong. No doubt Mao and the CCP were extremist in their domestic policy. They went all out in their commitment to developing a socialist state, breaking a lot of eggs to achieve the mythical omelet. But in foreign policy, China has been restrained. They stayed out of the Korean War until they felt directly threatened. If China was committed to spreading socialism it would have backed the DPRK from the beginning. In the 1950s there were some skirmishes around the two smalls islands held by the KMT near the Chinese coast, but never an invasion. They supported Vietnam during the Vietnam War, but never sent half a million troops like the U.S. did to prop up the South Vietnamese government. China even reduced its military support for North Vietnam after 1972.

China fought short border wars with Vietnam and India, but in both cases, China did not take territory and did not commit their full power. These were limited wars with limited objectives that had nothing to do with spreading socialism. China never sought to spread socialism outside its borders like the USSR did in the 1940s-70s. China has not have either a territorially expansionist foreign policy, nor an ideologically evangelical policy. China supported the Khmer Rouge in 1979, but that was more of a Great Game policy because the Khmer Rouge were a Chinese ally while Vietnam was a Soviet ally. Besides, the Khmer Rouge fell and China ultimately did nothing about it.

In conclusion the PRC has never had, and does not have, an expansionist, aggressive foreign policy. I'd like to see a tabulation of foreign military actions by the USSR/Russia, the USA, France, and Britain in the last 60 years. Even Spain and Portugal have had more foreign military actions than China. China's foreign policy is closer to that of Switzerland than the other members of the UN Security Council.

The U.S. and China can't let Southeast Asian nations' irrational fears govern their policy. So SEA nations scared of China. What are they going to do if the U.S. did cede responsibility for Pacific security to China? Are SEA nations going to go to war with China? Refuse to trade with China? Engage in a hopeless arms race? Form a military alliance? No, those actions would be self-defeating. China's actions would soon earn them the begrudging trust of Southeast Asia. China would probably partner with countries, conduct join patrols, and share in intelligence. China has so much to gain by treating SEA nations well and so little to gain by pushing them around.
 
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solarz

Brigadier
So, you believe that China can claim the entirety of the South China Sea as its own and conrol what vessels pass through any of it?

Because unless you do, the analogy stands. And if you do, it is a claim that no country that I am aware of will accept. BTW, those three countries are not the only three that the US has treaties with.

Hmm... are you saying you are not aware of China, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran, and possibly Russia?
 

paintgun

Senior Member
@Geographer

In conclusion the PRC has never had, and does not have, an expansionist, aggressive foreign policy

India and Vietnam certainly do not agree to that, at least in their view, and this case how other countries outside China view China matters the most, and they will look back into history

So SEA nations scared of China. What are they going to do if the U.S. did cede responsibility for Pacific security to China?

new landlord, business as usual

the SEA countries does not fear China for the reds are coming stuff or irrational reasons
they just fear uncertainty
 

Geographer

Junior Member
how about South China Sea sea passage remains the same, but PLAN as the dominance presence instead of USN? i believe that's always what China has in mind, instead of claiming the whole SCS as territorial possession
My understanding of China's use of the nine dotted line maps are that they claim all the islands in the dotted line, not the ocean. Since the 1982 Law of the Sea, which China has ratified, you cannot claim ocean as territory beyond 12 nautical miles from shore. So if you want to know what ocean China is claiming, draw little circles around every island that is above water at high tide and large enough to support economic activity with a 12nm radius. You will find those are very tiny circles in the grand scheme of the South China Sea. Even in these territorial waters, the UN Law of the Sea still guarantees the right of innocent passage! There is no justified fear of restricted freedom of navigation should China control all the islands in the South China Sea.

A good parallel is how Greece treats the Aegean Sea directly east of the Greek mainland. The Aegean sea is full of islands, much denser than the South China Sea. Greece controls every one of them, and thus the entire Aegean Sea is Greek territorial waters. But Greece still allows commercial and military ships to pass through the sea without a problem.
 
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