Chinese Naval Threat to SEA?

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
China has benefitted economically more than any SE Asian country from freedom of the seas & right of innocent passage. The ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), which consists of China and the ASEAN-6, ranks 3rd behind EU and NAFTA in trade volume. China-ASEAN trade increased from $60 billion in 2003 to $293 billion in 2010. In comparison, US-China trade grew from $180 billion in 2003 to $450 billion in 2010. ASEAN is now China's 4th largest trading partner after EU, US, and Japan.

It's not in China's self-interest to strangle the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Anyone who claims otherwise is complete bonk. Despite all the hoopla over territorial disputes between China and Vietnam & Philippines, it did not stop China-Vietnam trade to grow by 42% in 2010 and discussions of VISA-free tourism, or China providing military aid & sales to PH.
 
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Schumacher

Senior Member
Your post is good sleight of hand presented piece, but thanks and no thanks to the suggestions.

Suggesting that it was time for China to take over Asian Security, would be viewed with horror by most other SE.Asian countries. IMO they would view it as China taking back her historic control over these areas.
Equally relieving for these countries in the Pacific is the fact that American presence in the Pacific is preventing China from pursuing her strategy of declaring the second island chain as in her core interests.

.............

Most of SEA's 'horror' of any Chinese taking over of Asian security is mainly just a natural unease anyone would have over some future unknowns. SEA has shown they can live with real horrors of having millions killed in the Vietnam war and the colonization of Philippines, just to name a few, in the last century by the US.
China will be hard-pressed to exceed the horrors of the Vietnam war and colonization of Philippines even if it does take over Asian security in the future so I'm sure SEA will have little problem getting used to any future security arrangements dominated by China.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
The 'fear' that SEA nations express about China is a) way exaggerated by western media and politicians to serve their own purpose, b) completely natural if not to be expected when smaller, weaker nations are neighbors with a top world power, and c) China's claims and positions is so often misrepresented and distorted.

It is a striking testament to the intensity and effectiveness of this propaganda campaign that even well respected and very knowledgeable and intelligent members like Jeff are operating under the false assumption that China is claiming the entire South China Sea and would bar all foreign shipping from there if given half a chance.

That is simply not true, and does not even make much sense if you think about it, as others have already explained above.
 

z117

New Member
Suggesting that it was time for China to take over Asian Security, would be viewed with horror by most other SE.Asian countries.

Why? Historically, China has had a better record at managing peace in Asia than any other power.

theglobalist[dot]com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=6940

China and the 500 Years’ Peace

One of the great myths of Western history is that nation states, and their organization in an interstate system, are European inventions. As Giovanni Arrighi argues, Asia's system of nation states, with China at the center, fostered a period of peace and economic growth previously unheard of in the West.

A first difference concerns the frequency of wars. Long periods of peace among European powers were the exception — rather than the rule. Thus, the “hundred years’ peace” (1815-1914) that followed the Napoleonic Wars was, in Karl Polanyi’s words, “a phenomenon unheard of in the annals of Western civilization.”

Moreover, even during this hundred years’ peace, European states were involved in countless wars of conquest in the non-European world — as well as in the escalating armament race that culminated in the industrialization of war.

While the initial result of these involvements was a new wave of geographical expansion which dampened conflicts within the European system, their eventual result was a new round of wars among European powers (1914-45) of unprecedented destructiveness.

In sharp contrast to this dynamic, the East Asian system of national states stood out for the near absence of military competition and
Unlike Europe, the East Asian system of national states stood out for the near absence of military competition and geographical expansion.
geographical expansion.

Thus, with the exception of China’s frontier wars — the main purpose of which was the transformation of a hard-to-defend frontier into a buffer against raiders and conquerors from Inner Asia — the national states of the East Asian system were almost uninterruptedly at peace with one another, not for 100, but for 300 years.

This 300 years’ peace was bracketed by two Japanese invasions of Korea, both of which precipitated a war with China — the Sino-Japanese wars of 1592-98 and 1894-95.

Between 1598 and 1894, there were only three brief wars that involved China — the 1659-60 and the 1767-71 wars with Burma, and the 1788-89 war with Vietnam, as well as two wars that did not involve China — the Siamese-Burmese wars of 1607-18 and of 1660-62.

Indeed, insofar as China is concerned, we should speak of a 500 years’ peace since, in the 200 years preceding the 1592 Japanese invasion of Korea, China was at war with other East Asian states only during the invasion of Vietnam in 1406-28 to restore the Tran dynasty.
 

advill

Junior Member
The territorial waters of the South China Sea, East China Sea and Sea of Japan are issues that need to be discussed & negotiated sensibly without the use of force or any bullying tactics. Claimants must prove without any doubt their stated claims, and without ambuiguity. There are energy resources below these seas that could be jointly explored for mutual benefits. As for the security, the US has a defence treaty with the Philippines. The USN also carries our regular naval exercises with Australia, Japan, S.Korea etc., and I believe the Philippines and Vietnam have/or would be participating. It would be difficult to keep out the US from the region, as quite frankly the Americans have political, security and economic interests. The US has come up with TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), while China is establishing an ASEAN Centre located in Beijing that focuses on cultural exchanges, and importantly promoting investments and business between China and the ASEAN countries. Economic issues are foremost in the minds of the countries in the region, and whoever can improve the lives of the people would have the greater influence.
 

i.e.

Senior Member
The territorial waters of the South China Sea, East China Sea and Sea of Japan are issues that need to be discussed & negotiated sensibly without the use of force or any bullying tactics. Claimants must prove without any doubt their stated claims, and without ambuiguity. There are energy resources below these seas that could be jointly explored for mutual benefits. As for the security, the US has a defence treaty with the Philippines. The USN also carries our regular naval exercises with Australia, Japan, S.Korea etc., and I believe the Philippines and Vietnam have/or would be participating. It would be difficult to keep out the US from the region, as quite frankly the Americans have political, security and economic interests. The US has come up with TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), while China is establishing an ASEAN Centre located in Beijing that focuses on cultural exchanges, and importantly promoting investments and business between China and the ASEAN countries. Economic issues are foremost in the minds of the countries in the region, and whoever can improve the lives of the people would have the greater influence.


I am going to put this in delicate diplomatic language.

TPP was something between couple of economic feather weights until US very recently usurp it as a wedge/alternative to the ASEAN+3 china has been pushing (successfully). ASEAN freetrade arrangements and various RMB clearing/ currency swaps has boosted asian trade networks substantially in the last 10 years, enriching and enhancing copperation between ASEAN+3 countries.

and other than that the various Raison d'être you listed for continuing various US presence and securities arrangements in East and South East Asia can be basically summed up as:
"US is there before so it is there now"... no economic or real securities or rational basis.

a big majority of shipping that goes through SCS is china bound. only a small percent is US bound. so it is bit preposterous to suggest that US has a preeminent interest in SCS free navigation, clearly It is US Navy not chinese Navy that has a chokehold on the strategically all important strait of malacca. in time of conflict or difficulties, especially unfortunate future misunderstandings that happens to involves china and us on opposing sides, I do not see freedom of navigation being applied to chinese civilian shipping to SCS. frankly good will is something one can not really depend on for national survivial in time of crisis, especially with 1.5 billion people and especially with that with the Anglo-American alliance on the other side, which more often or not does not distinguish civil and military targets and employs total war tactics as often as it can...
as these example amplily demonstrates: the horrible and illegal blockade of Germany by Royal Navy during WWI,
as Nato alliance's bombing of serbian civil infrastructure (bridges across danbue, water treatment plants, TV/radio stations) during 1999 Kosovo war; mass aerial bombing/slaughter of civilians cities in Germany by RAF, by USAF in Japan during pacific war... etc etc .
so I do not think a blockade of china bound shipping, especially mid-eastern oil, would be a far stretch in these terrible eventualities.
even if we do not talk about blockade during conflicts, the mere presence of a potential US choke hold would exert a psychological influence on all calculation in Beijing, by the mere acts of "hedging", one is influencing the events towards terrible outcome that no one openly professes wants to see.


all these being said, now I hope you do realize how hypocritical US sounds in the private conversation in Beijing and Shangha, when suddenly Obama pronounce key US interest in SEA and push for TPP, and all these enhanced securities arrangments in SEA/Australia.
 
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A.Man

Major
Off-Topic(Not Just Naval): A Very Interesting Speech By A Former PLA Official

迟浩田将军猛文:打就要打残美国毁灭小日本




这是原人民共和国中央军事委员会副主席兼国防部部长迟浩田上将在中央军委扩大会议上的一份发言....


*任何国家都以追求国家利益为唯一的行动准则,而没有给道德留下任何空间。


*和平与发展是当代主题说法是完全错误的,一厢情愿,起着麻醉作用的有害的学说


*发展就意味着危险和威胁,没有“战争权”就没有发展权


*我们的思维基点应该是也必须是∶中国的发展就是对日本等的威胁。


*霸权是大国存在的本质特征


主题:战争正在向我们走来--迟浩田


同志们:


写下这个题目的心情很沉重,因为中国化的进程屡次遭到外部势力的打击和直接侵略而中断,最典型的就是1927-37年的所谓“黄金十年”,所谓黄金十年以的眼光看一点也不黄金,这中间有1931年的9。18东北的沦陷,有冀东伪政权的成立,但相对来说,1927-37年中国经济发展速度较快,基础设施建设有相当进展,军队建设也有起色,中国有了一点希望。


但这是日本所不能容忍的,侵吞了东三省还不满足,便迫不急待的发动了全面的侵华战争,中国被迫以焦土抗战政策苦撑8年,中国虽然惨胜,但失去了外蒙,元气大伤,财产损失在6000亿美元以上,经过8年战火的摧残,本以贫弱的中国更加一穷二白,可以说日本的侵略特别是全面侵华战争大大延缓了中国的化进程。


不允许中国发展,阻碍中国化进程一直是列强特别是日本始终不变的国策,我们对此应该有着最痛切的历史教训。国与国之间有合作,更本质的是竞争、冲突和冲突的极端形式-战争。合作是暂的、有条件的竞争和冲突是绝对的,是历史的主轴,因此,所谓和平与发展是当代主题的说法是完全错误的(最多也只能做为权宜之计),这种说法既没有什么经得起推敲的理论依据,更不符合事实和历史经验。不要说中日两国这样的地理上、历史上的死对头,即使是60年代的中苏分裂也足以说明任何国家都以追求国家利益为唯一的行动准则,而没有给道德留下任何空间。


当年中苏有着共同的意识形态,面对共同的敌人,而且中国低下的科技水平使中国不可能对苏联形成威胁,但中苏还是分裂了,并进而走向了尖锐的对抗。个中缘由头绪很多,但一个根本的原因是苏联不愿看到一个日益发展、日益强大的中国和它比肩而立,哪怕仅仅有这种趋势还远未成为现实也不行。


如果有着共同意识形态,共同敌人,一强一弱的中苏都可以分裂,那么所谓和平与发展是当代试题的咒语主导下的中国政略、战略及外交的虚幻性、脆弱性、危险性就十分的明显了。之所以说和平与发展是当代主题说法是完全错误的,一厢情愿,起着麻作用的有害的学说,原因如下∶


一、列强打击中国化进程是其一贯的国策


从中国近代历史经验、教训,和人民共和国50年来的历史经验与教训,可以得出这样一条历史规律∶列强打击(包括用全面战争手段)中国化进程是其一贯的国策。在过去的160年是这样,在今後的160年仍然是这样。


二、发展就意味着危险和威胁,没有“战争权”就没有发展权


发展就意味着危险、威胁,这是世界历史的通则。只有在中国历史上才有特例,如大汉王朝在当时的地理极限内打败所有对手之後,就可以“关起门”发展了,并进而产生了“天下主义”。因为不论从人口、军事、经济、文化任何一方而衡量,没有任何族群和大汉族比肩甚至看不到任何族群有这种比肩的潜质。


在战国时代,一国的发展就意味着对另一国的威胁,这才是世界历史上的通则,也是西方外交的核心和基石。西方外交的鼻祖是法国的红衣主教黎塞留,正是他第一个在外交走出了中世纪的“蒙味”,开创了外交抛弃任何道德与宗教的束缚,一切以国家利益为轴心旋转。他制定的外交政策使法国受惠200余年,主宰欧洲,而他策划的30年战争则使德国生灵图炭,分裂为诸邦小国,永远处于动荡之中,直到卑斯麦统一德国。而德国统一进程表明,没有卑斯麦的“战争权”,就没有国家的统一,更没有发展权。


三、军刀下的化,中国唯一的选择


中国威胁论是完全正确的,这正是典型的西方思维。“我关起门来发展自己的经济,招谁惹谁了?”这种中国式的思维方式不仅是愚蠢的,也是不能和“国际接轨的”。在战国时代,在国家利益这一残忍的,容不得任何温情,谁要看抱着一丝一毫的幻想,谁就会遭到大历史残酷的惩罚,中国的发展对日本等当然是威胁,中国自己可以不这么看,但中国几乎不可能改变日本等列强这种已经和“国际接轨”的,根深蒂固的思维。所以我们的思维基点应该是也必须是∶中国的发展就是对日本等的威胁。


按“理”说,每个国家,民族都有生存权,发展权,比如中国经济发展了,就要进口石油,为了保护生态,中国封山育林,就要进口木材等原材料,这是再自然不过,再有“理”不过的事情了,但列强有列强的“理”,象中国这样的大块头,要是2010年石油采购达到1亿吨,2020年采购达到2亿吨,列强会容忍吗?


争夺基础性生存资源(包括土地、海洋)是历史上绝大多数战争的根源,在这个信息化时代会有变化,但不会有本质的变化。发达、先进、文明如以色列,不是为了。大的地方(包括争夺水源)和阿、巴打了50年,还在一天不停的打吗?为了争取再正当不过的发展权(除非中国人永远安于贫困、连发展仅也放弃),中国就要准备战争,这不是由我们决定的,更不是由我们中的一些善良人士的善良愿望决定的,事实上这是由“国际惯例”和列强决定的。


中国20年来的和平与发展政策已经走到了尽头,国际环境已经发生了质的变化,即列强已经准备再一次打断中国的现代化进程,中国要发展,要维护自己的发展权,就要准备战争,只有准备打仗才能蠃得发展有空间和时间。


四、(大)外交决定内政


即使中国目前最鹰的鹰派也不一定主张现在就打仗,虽然我们有足够的充足理由,比如国家统一之战,比如维护南海权益的目的。就是为了发展权,珍惜中国160年来少有,因而极为珍贵的发展权,但是,当这种发展权也日益受到威胁的时候,也就是我们必须拿起武器,扞卫中国人发展权的时候。


内政决定外交,这没错,但不要忘记在这个战国时代,(大)外交也决定内政。这不仅是理论上的表述,更有中华人民共和国历史经验的表述,70年代中国的国防支出超过了科、教、文、卫支出的总和(因而人民生活比较贫困)。我当然不希望今天中国的军事支出超过科、教、文、卫支出的总和,事实上,中国最需要投资的是教育。但列强允许吗?难道就不想把更多的钱投到科、教、文、卫上吗?


有人说,根据所谓苏联解密文件,证明60、70年代苏联并没有全面入侵中国的计划,即使这些解密文件是正确的,也不能说明“历史的真实”,棋局都是互动的,没有在的领导下的中国做了最充分的精神和物质准备,极大的增加了苏联全面侵华的风险和成本,历史也完全向另一个方向转折,软弱者只会招引侵略,从这一角度讲,才是真正的和平扞卫者。


五、求善得恶,中国未来10年能和平吗


打断中国化进程,剥夺中国人的发展权,列强有许多牌可打,最明显的三张牌是“三岛”,其中又以台湾牌最有效。台海之战何时爆发,决定权既不在我们手里,也不在台独分子手中,而是在美日手中。如果爆发台海之战,那就不仅仅是统一之战,更深层的是美日决心剥夺中国人的发展权,再一次打断中国的化进程,正如历史上的甲午之战,日本全面侵华,不仅仅是割地赔款,更为本质的是日本打断中国化进程,剥夺中国人的发民权一样。


因此,我们必须以战略决战高度看待台海战争。而以我们现在的武力水平,对美日而言还谈不上战略决战,特别是对美国更够不上战略决战,因为中国只有不多的洲际导弹,而且美国已经铁了心要发展NMD。


要阻止延缓台海之战爆发的时间,首先就必须把台海之战上升到“对称的战略决战”的水准,既鱼死网破的程序,如果我们不能蠃得台海之战,後果将比甲午战败还惨。因此,不战则已,战则要全面毁灭日本,把美国打成残废,这只有核战才能胜任。


求善得恶,这是我们目前政策的最终结局,求恶得善,只有拥有全面摧灭日本,把美国打成残废的能力才能蠃得和平,否则台湾问题拖不过10年,10内必有大战!


六、霸权是大国存在的本质特征


什么是大国?有霸权就是大国,没有霸权就是任人宰割,命运(包括发展权)被别人*控的木偶。霸权在这个战国时代是客观存在,“是不以人的意志为转移的”,问题只是你意识到没有,是主动追求,还是被动*近,中国的一切问题,包括三岛问题,战略产业发展问题,国内各阶层利益调整问题最终都是为民族争夺霸权的问题。


要争霸权就不能内斗不已,内部要安定团结,英国由于海外殖民的巨大利益,早早地实现了“工人阶级贵族化”,日本从中国撮取的巨额赔偿和市场不仅有利于上层,也使日本下层获得巨大利益。时代不同了,国情也不一样,但实质没有变,我们不仅要以霸权的视角看待军事、外交问题,更要以霸权的视角看待内部的阶层,阶级利益的调整问题。只*压榨剥削本国下层的上层精英阶级,在这处战国时代是不能代表民族利益的,它们是腐朽的,没落的,没出息的,应该被限制,被消灭的。成熟的,智慧的上层才能代表民族利益即对内实行“让步政策”,领导下层共同获取海外利益,(这个问题比较复杂,以後再详谈,中国是有巨大的海外利益的,只是我们还没有积极主动的去开发)。

Google Translation:


General Chi's Tough Language: we must fight to destroy the small Japanese and cripple the U.S.




This is the original people of the Republic of the Central Military Commission Vice Chairman and Defense Minister Chi Haotian on the enlarged meeting of the Central Military Commission, a statement ....


* No country in pursuit of national interests as the only code of conduct, and not to leave any room for morality.


* Peace and development is a contemporary theme is entirely wrong, and wishful thinking, plays a harmful role of the doctrine of anesthesia


* Development means danger and threats, there is no "right war" has no right to development


* Our Siwei Ji points should also be: China's development is a threat to Japan and so on.


* There is a big country hegemony is the essential characteristic of


Topic: War is coming - Chi


Comrades:


Write down the subject heart was heavy, because China, the process was repeated external forces and direct aggression against disruption, the most typical is the 1927-37 year the so-called "golden years", in the eyes of the so-called golden years see is not gold, that the middle 1931 9.18 northeast of the fall, the establishment of a puppet regime Jidong, but relatively speaking, ,1927-37 China's fast economic development, considerable progress in infrastructure construction, also pick up army building, China had little hope.


But Japan can not tolerate, misappropriation of the Northeast is not met, can not wait to launch a full war of aggression against China was forced to scorched earth war policy struggling for eight years, although China tragic victory, but lost of Outer Mongolia, vitality, loss of property over $ 600 billion, after eight years of the ravages of war, the more the poor and weak China was poor, it can be said of Japan's aggression war against China in particular, greatly slowed the overall China's process.


Does not allow the development of China and hinder the process of China has been always the same powers, especially Japan's national policy, and we should have the most poignant lessons of history. Cooperation between countries, but also the nature of competition, conflict and extreme form of conflict - war. Cooperation is temporary and conditional competition and conflict is absolute, is the history of the spindle, so-called peace and development is a contemporary theme is entirely wrong (most can only be used as an expedient measure), this argument Nothing can stand the scrutiny of both the theoretical basis, further from the truth and historical experience. Do not say that China and such geographic, historical rival, even 60 years of Sino-Soviet split is enough for any country in pursuit of national interests as the only code of conduct, and not to leave any room for morality.


When the Soviet Union share a common ideology, facing a common enemy, and the low technological level of China so that China can not be a threat to the Soviet Union, but the Soviet Union still divided, and thus to a sharp confrontation. One reason many clues, but a fundamental reason is that the Soviet Union do not want to see a growing and increasingly powerful China and its standing shoulder to shoulder, even if only this trend is far from a reality does not work.


If you have a common ideology, common enemy, a strong and weak in the Soviet Union can be split, then the so-called questions of peace and development in contemporary China under the auspices of the strategy that gives spell, strategy and diplomacy of the illusory nature of vulnerability, risk will be very the obvious. The reason why the contemporary theme of peace and development are saying is completely wrong, wishful thinking, plays a harmful role of the doctrine of Ma, for the following reasons:


First, the process of foreign powers against China is its consistent policy of


China's modern history from the experiences, lessons learned, and the People's Republic 50 years of historical experience and lessons can be drawn from such a law of history: great powers against (including the use of full-scale war means) is the usual process of China's national policy. In the past 160 years so, in the next 160 years is still the case.


Second, the development means the dangers and threats, there is no "right war" has no right to development


Development means danger, threat, which is the world's history, General. Have only a special case in Chinese history, such as the Han Dynasty was defeated all opponents within the geographical limits, you can "closed door" development, and thus produced a "world doctrine." Because, whether from the population, military, economic, cultural and measure any party, without any great Han ethnic group and do not see any par or even ethnic groups have the potential of this par.


In the Warring States period, a country's development means that the threat of another country, this is the general rule in world history, but also the core and foundation of Western diplomacy. Western diplomacy is the originator of the French Cardinal Richelieu, it was his first out of the diplomacy of the Middle Ages, "Mongolian style", creating a diplomatic discard any moral and religious constraints, all the national interests of the rotation axis. His foreign policy that will benefit the French 200 years, dominate Europe, and his planned 30-year war makes Germany creatures figure charcoal, a small country split into various states, always in turmoil, until Bismarck unified Germany. The German unification process that does not Bismarck's "war powers", there is no national unity, and no right to development.


Third, the technology under the knife, the only choice for China


China threat theory is completely correct, this is typical of Western thinking. "I'm behind closed doors to develop their economies, this bother anyone?" This Chinese-style way of thinking is not only stupid, they can not and "international standards." In the Warring States Period, in the national interest of this cruel, does not allow any warmth, who hold a shred of imagination to see who would have been cruel to punish a large history, China's development is a threat to Japan, of course, China itself can do not think so, but China is almost impossible to change Japan and other powers that have been and "international standards", and deep thinking. So should we Siwei Ji point must also be: China's development is a threat to Japan and so on.


Press the "truth" that every country, nation has the right to life, the right to development, such as China's economic development, and we must import oil, in order to protect the ecological, China closed forest, we must import raw materials such as wood, which is more natural, more "reasonable" but the thing, but there are powers of powers "grounds" big man like China, if the procurement of oil in 2010 reached 100 million tons in 2020 to purchase 200 million tons, powers would tolerate it?


Competition for basic living resources (including land, sea) is the source of the history of the vast majority of war, in this information age there will be changes, but not essentially change. Developed, advanced, civilized, such as Israel, not to. Large areas (including the competition for water) and the Arab, Pakistani playing for 50 years, still one day non-stop play? In order to be legitimate, but for the right to development (unless the Chinese people will never be content with poverty, with development only to give up), China must prepare for war, it is not determined by us, but not by us, some of the good people of good intentions decision , in fact it is "international practice" and powers of decision.


China's 20 years of peace and development policy has come to an end, the international environment has undergone a qualitative change, that is once again ready to break the powers of China's modernization process, China to develop and maintain their right to development, we must prepare for war only prepared to fight to win the development of space and time.


Fourth, the (large) foreign affairs decisions


Even China is not necessarily the most eagle hawks now advocate war, although we have enough good reasons, such as the national unity of the war, such as the purpose of safeguarding the interests of the South China Sea. Is to the right to development, a rare treasure to China 160 years, and thus extremely valuable development rights, but when this right to development is increasingly being threatened, that is, we must take up arms to defend the right to development, when the Chinese people.


Foreign affairs decisions, this is true, but do not forget the Warring States Period, (large) also decided to foreign affairs. This is not just a theoretical statement, statement of historical experience more of the PRC, 70 years of China's defense expenditure in excess of the science, education, culture, health expenditures sum (and thus the poorer people's lives). I certainly do not hope that China's military spending more than science, education, culture, health expenditures sum, in fact, China's need for investment in education. But powers allow it? Do not want to pour more money into science, education, culture, health on it?


Some people say that, according to the so-called Soviet declassified documents show that the 1960s and 1970s the Soviet invasion of China is not a comprehensive plan, even if the decrypted file is correct, can not explain "the truth of history," chess game is interactive, not leadership made in China under the fullest spiritual and material preparation, greatly increases the risk of full-scale invasion of the Soviet Union and the cost of history turn in another direction entirely, weakness would only attract aggression, from this perspective, it is the real defenders of peace.


Fifth, seeking good was evil, peace in China can do the next 10 years


Interrupt the process of China, Chinese people deprived of the right to development, there are many cards to play foreign powers, most notably the three cards are "islands", among which the most effective brand of Taiwan. Taiwan Straits war when it broke out, the decision is not in our hands, not in the hands of the Taiwan independence elements, but in the hands of the U.S. and Japan. If the outbreak of the Taiwan Straits war, it is not just unity of the war, the U.S. and Japan deeper commitment to the development of the right to deprive the Chinese people once again to interrupt the process in China, as the history of the war Jiawu, full-scale invasion of Japan , not just cede territory and pay indemnities, more essential is the Japanese interrupted the process of China, Chinese people deprived of civil rights, like the hair.


Therefore, we have a strategic battle of view of war across the Taiwan Strait. And with our current force levels, in terms far from the US-Japan strategic battle, especially for the United States on a more strategic battle is not enough, because only a few Chinese ICBMs, and the United States has been bent to the development of NMD.


To prevent the time delay Taiwan Straits war broke out, first we must rise to the Taiwan Straits war "symmetrical strategy battle" standard, not only break the death process, if we can not win the Taiwan Straits war, the consequences of defeat than Jiawu still miserable. Therefore, no war already, war will have total destruction of Japan, the United States labeled as disabled, which is only a nuclear war to be competent.


Seeking good was evil, this is the final outcome of our current policy, seek evil was good, only Japan has fully destroy destroy, the ability of the United States labeled as disabled in order to win the peace, or the Taiwan issue has dragged on for 10 years, however, must be within 10 War!


Sixth, there is a big country hegemony is the essential characteristic of


What is power? There is a hegemonic power, hegemony is not trampled upon, the fate (including the right) puppet controlled by others *. Hegemony in the Warring States Period is an objective reality, "is not the people's will," and you realize that not only question is, is actively pursuing, or passive * close to all the problems in China, including the islands issue, the development of strategic industries issues, the interests of all sectors of the domestic adjustment problems are ultimately for the national hegemony of the problem.


Hegemony can not be right to endless infighting, internal stability and unity to the British because of the enormous benefits of overseas colonial, early implementation of the "working class, aristocratic," summarized from China, Japan to take the huge compensation and the market will not only help the top, but also Japan's lower benefit immensely. Times have changed, conditions are not the same, but the substance has not changed, we should not only hegemonic perspective on military, diplomatic issues, but also to look at the perspective of hegemony within the class, the class interests of the adjustment. * Only press elites exploit their lower class, at this point is not representative of the Warring States era of national interests, they are decadent, declining, good for nothing, and should be restricted, to be eliminated. Maturity, wisdom, in order to represent the national interests of the upper internal implementation of the "concessions" policy, leading the lower common access to overseas interests, (this issue is more complex, elaborate later, China is a huge interest from overseas, but we have not proactive to develop).
 

delft

Brigadier
Why? Historically, China has had a better record at managing peace in Asia than any other power.

theglobalist[dot]com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=6940
OT, but I can't resist.
"Thus, the “hundred years’ peace” (1815-1914) that followed the Napoleonic Wars" was 99 years of little British involvement in wars in Europe, except for the Crimean War, but also the independence wars of Greece ( with involvement of UK and France ) and Belgium, war between France and Austria, Prussia and Austria, Prussia and Denmark, Germany and France, Russia and Turkey, Austria and Turkey, several other wars on the Balkan. I'm sure I missed a few wars. So "a hundred years of peace"?
 
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solarz

Brigadier
Meh, it's kind of pointless to use skewed interpretations of history to attempt to support current agendas. East Asia did not have as many wars as Europe in medieval times because unlike Europe, East Asia had a powerful hegemon: China. In fact, you could say East Asia's nations were divided into two camps: those who were part of the Chinese protectorate, and those who constantly challenged China's defenses.

The fact that Europe had a lot of wars is a natural consequence of many near-peer nation-states living in close proximity of each other. China had the same thing during the Warring States era. The fact that the Europeans were able to peacefully achieve a kind of unity, flawed though it is, is a monumental achievement in itself. The fact is, China, in its 5000 years of history, had never been able to unite anything without a fight.

The People's Republic is not interested in reverting to the old policies of the Dynasty Emperors. The PRC has no interest in interfering with other nations sovereignty. It's only concern is the defense of its own national interests, a large part of which is territorial integrity.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Meh, it's kind of pointless to use skewed interpretations of history to attempt to support current agendas. East Asia did not have as many wars as Europe in medieval times because unlike Europe, East Asia had a powerful hegemon: China. In fact, you could say East Asia's nations were divided into two camps: those who were part of the Chinese protectorate, and those who constantly challenged China's defenses.

The fact that Europe had a lot of wars is a natural consequence of many near-peer nation-states living in close proximity of each other. China had the same thing during the Warring States era. The fact that the Europeans were able to peacefully achieve a kind of unity, flawed though it is, is a monumental achievement in itself. The fact is, China, in its 5000 years of history, had never been able to unite anything without a fight.

The People's Republic is not interested in reverting to the old policies of the Dynasty Emperors. The PRC has no interest in interfering with other nations sovereignty. It's only concern is the defense of its own national interests, a large part of which is territorial integrity.

What do you call WWII and the cold war?

Europe did not magically achieve a state of unity peacefully, it was the horrors of WWII that taught a generation the value of peace, and the hyped up threat from the Soviets that forged the fragmented European nations into a semblance of an united front. But one only needs to look at the sorry, bickering state of the EU to see just how 'united' Europe is.

Peace has always, and probably will always, require the application, or threat of force to impose, at any level. If you misbehave as a citizen, the police will use force to put you in your place. If a nation steps out of line, more powerful nations step in and take it down a peg or two with military force if necessary.

Peace and stability is built upon rules and certainties. And by sticking its nose into the SEA, America is actually promoting friction and conflict instead of peace and stability. By firstly giving small, weaker nations an inflated sense of worth and almost egging them on to overplay their hand and force a Chinese response. It appears their Georgian misadventure has taught the west nothing of the dangers of using proxies with their own agendas to prod a potential competitor.

Secondly, by throwing its weight in for weaker nations, the US is encouraging them to be more belligerent and less conciliatory, directly making it more difficult for disputes to be resolved peacefully on the negotiating table as a peaceful solution requires both parties to compromise and give ground. In addition, the US influence will make it harder for China to offer concessions of it's own because of the risk that such moves will look like China Kowtowing to US military threats.

Almost always when it suits them, western commentators and policy makers alike seem to operate under the quite ridiculous assumption that just because China is not a democracy, it means Beijing does not have to worry about how their foreign policy decisions are viewed back home by the citizens.

In fact, ironically, Beijing is probably far more sensitive to the opinions of it's citizens than western democracies precisely because it's leaders does not have the arrogance a democratic mandate seem to impart on western politicians.

The reason for why China has enjoyed so much peace with its neighbors have nothing to do with the lack of near peers. You only need to look over to the US to put the lie to that suggestion.

Something few westerns seem to understand about China, probably because this is such an alien concept for them, is that China's wars are as much about principle as it is about strategic gain.

In fact, China has time and again voluntarily pulled back off its own accord from strategically and tactically advantageous positions after they have achieved their military and political objectives to prove the fact that the military action was done out of principle rather than for material gain. But the western media willfully turns a blind eye to such acts.

Because of this abject failure on the part of the west to understand the motivations for China to go to war, the risks of conflict increase massively when western powers start to weigh in on regional matters, especially core interests of China. Because it is so easy for western planners to not realize that a small, strategically unimportant bit of land might cause China to go to war on principle, because they would never do so themselves.

China may be a lot more powerful than almost all of its neighbors, but its past and recent history has shown time and again that China is willing and able to be very generous and practical when it comes to settling disputes around territory, and has been very responsible and restrained unless a principle has been breached.

What the west has done is make some irrelevant empty speeches that no-one but themselves care about every time some crisis pops up, and then jump in and claim all the glory for a peaceful resolution of the crisis by insisting that it was only their 'pressure' that helped keep China in line.

But their almost always biased pronouncements and suggested remedies tend to make disputes less likely to be resolved in the first place.

So, quite perversely, the west first help to aggravate and worsen a crises with their needless and biased meddling, and then go claim that it was their intervention that helped to prevent a full scale shooting war from developing. And now they are using this perverse cycle as a rationale to butt in where they have no business.

My prediction is that America's involvement will make the South China Sea more volatile and dangerous instead of bring peace and freedom of navigation. Because surprise surprise, American involvement has nothing to do with peace and stability in the region or freedom of navigation or any other high minded notions they use as excuses for their presence. The American involvement is aimed solely at China, and seems more like the petty payback of a president who feels the Chinese did not worship the ground he walks on enough for his liking, as antagonizing China so directly is hardly good for America's national interest.
 
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