I don't understand the willingness to accept without doubt or concern that Chinese ICBMs can overwhelm US ABM. How does anyone know this without knowing exact numbers and performances of Chinese ICBMs with DF-31A range (at least) and the exact numbers, positions, mobility, and performance of US ABM.
China clearly seems to feel they should still increase nuclear warhead numbers and delivery system capability and numbers. This is of course assuming the 2021 hypersonic flights are weapons or can be weaponised for nuclear delivery.
It could be the case that these developments, silo building, warhead expansion and so on are there for treaty negotiations in an effort to get the US to bring down their own nuclear capabilities in mutual disarmament with the Russians etc. DOUBT.
China has been fine with accepting US nuclear force since fighting the Korean War. For guaranteed MAD, it needs more SSBNs and ICBMs. These are things it can do without developing more exotic, novel forms of nuclear delivery like HGVs (FOBS or ICBM mounted or whatever). It cannot rely on novel, unproven technologies for MAD over building thousands more warheads and putting them on MIRVed modern ICBMs like DF-41, DF-5B, and SLBMs like JL-2 and JL-3. That would required regardless of whether HGV delivery is pursued! Therefore HGV delivery is not and cannot be the sole depended technology for MAD. Therefore testing HGV nuclear delivery cannot be for any mutual disarmament negotiations bargaining.
The purpose of these tests are not for negotiation for mutual disarmament without actually putting into service equal numbers of nuclear warheads, however they fly. If it were, they wouldn't be denying this is a weapon intended for nuclear delivery and they would still need to actually put into service enough to reach near parity before the US would agree. Do we think the US intelligence is that incompetent AND the Chinese know them to be? Come on, let's get real.
This leaves two options, either China just thinks it needs to up its nuclear game to ensure MAD in second strike or global HGV flight is not a weapon at all, at least very unlikely and difficult to be converted into a flexible enough platform to be part of PLARF's nuclear forces.
I think DF-17 HGV (clearly weapon) shows HGVs are weaponised before they are anything else. Does China have Avangard like ICBM mounted HGVs? You bet. Does it have every intention to increase its nuclear forces and capabilities? You bet. Is that just to get the US to reduce their weapons? No effing way. 1 - the US wouldn't. 2 - China hasn't cared in the past when the gap was much greater and the tensions at least as high if not higher (wartime e.g. Korea). 3 - simply because it regards itself as a power that requires a nuclear force that is not such a fraction of US nuclear forces i.e. it can afford to and deserves to have such a security in times of so much tension created by US desire to contain and destroy China.
What is more interesting than FOBS combined with HGVs is a hypersonic craft that can travel within the atmosphere, across the globe and land. Whether it takes off horizontally or it is air launched or vertically boosted, that is something entirely new to humans. Having said that we know China has HGV weapons and certainly for nuclear delivery. We also know from the horse's mouth that it also has developed a hypersonic craft that is capable of landing and has done exactly that on at least one occasion this year, tacitly verified by the US. Who is talking about what, when. That is unclear for now since there are inaccuracies in media reporting and intentional obfuscation for political reason from China and the US (in different ways). Hypersonic weapons are done... DF-17 boosted HGV was shown back in 2019. That is old hat already. China is flying combined cycle hypersonic craft that can land. This isn't even secretive or sensitive enough to hide for China. Imagine what is hidden.
