Chinese Hypersonic Developments (HGVs/HCMs)

AndrewS said:

Bear in the mind the cost difference between the DF-17 and DF-27.

It looks like the DF-17 is about $2 Mn.

I'd expect the DF-27 to be much more expensive, given the significantly larger size and speed

And for comparison, we saw a previous CSBA estimate of a DF-26 class IRBM at around $20 Mn. But bear in mind that is likely an overestimate of what a Chinese DF-27 would cost.

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Then consider that a Patriot SAM costs $4 million and they would typically launch 2 against an incoming missile. So you can see that in an arms race, where the defensive SAMs cost 4x more than a single DF-17, the DF-17 handily wins against the Patriot.

The higher cost of the DF-27 means there isn't as much of a cost advantage, if any.

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I think DF-17 is closer to 4M USD,.
DF-27's glider shouldn't be that different in size as DF-17 (It may even be the same glider), so the added cost is probably on the booster.

sr338 said:

I think DF-17 is closer to 4M USD,.
DF-27's glider shouldn't be that different in size as DF-17 (It may even be the same glider), so the added cost is probably on the booster.

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How did you get to 4 Mn USD for a DF-17?

AndrewS said:

How did you get to 4 Mn USD for a DF-17?

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The DF-17 Booster is around 700K USD I think. The glider cost, is 2-3M USD, but I forgot where I saw the cost estimate, it's somewhere here. 3-4M Is for the land attack version.
The DF-27 has a anti-ship variant, anti-ship glider would cost more.

Thoughts on the range and payload of YJ-21. One thing that always intrigued me is how the YJ-21 with a dimension similar to DF-15 can achieve a much greater range despite being a slightly smaller rocket.. Let's compare:


One way to get a greater range is to use a Sanger ballistics (You also lose energy by doing that), but I wonder if the same can be achieved by having a smaller payload. As the YJ-21 doesn't need a 600 warhead to inflict a mission kill on a carrier.

After some googling I found this graph: Link:


Assuming this the info in this graph is scalable for our range.
I'm also using Region A as I don't fully understand what each region represent, people better at rocket may want to correct me.
1500km/900km = 1.67
So I geed to figure out how much the 600kg warhead need to reduced to achieve a 1.67x increase in range.
In graph: 600kg, 250km ish range.
So we need the warhead mass for 250x1.67= 417 km range.


So got a warhead mass of 200kg, which is a warhead mass slightly smaller than the Harpoon (221km).

However, I think with a terminal speed of Mach10, 200kg is enough to achieve a mission kill on a Carrier, but def not sink it.

What do you guys think? Feel free to improve upon my finding.

sr338 said:

The DF-17 Booster is around 700K USD I think. The glider cost, is 2-3M USD, but I forgot where I saw the cost estimate, it's somewhere here. 3-4M Is for the land attack version.
The DF-27 has a anti-ship variant, anti-ship glider would cost more.

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You need to have some idea of where the cost estimate for a DF-17 originally comes from.

$2 Mn comes from a Shilao podcast and also an inference from a statement by a USAF procurement general.