Chinese Geopolitics

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SamuraiBlue

Captain
Reading some of the articles concerning the SE china sea I am a bit concerned if we are not closing into flash point.

Mines Are Coming To The South China Sea

Mine Warfare in the South China Sea is inevitable.

Look at the players. On one side, we have China, a country boasting an enormous, sophisticated arsenal of mines with a resurgent Navy holding a set of offensive Mine Warfare doctrines that are simply begging to be tested.

On the other, we have Vietnam, the Philippines and the rest of the region who are desperately “looking for a win” against the big, expansion-minded regional powerhouse. These tiny regional navies are casting about for any cost-effective means to level a playing field dominated by large numbers of aggressive Chinese combatants and encroachment by grand-scale commercial equipment–rigs, dredges and other craft.

For all parties, mines offer a pretty painless way to tactically advance their various agendas... to read more
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China slams Vietnam's decision to arm fisheries agency's vessels

Chinese government-backed news agency ECNS has lashed out at reports of plans by the Vietnamese government to arm its fishery patrol vessels as "breaking international conventions".

Vietnamese state-run newspapers reported in early August 2014 that the government has passed legislation, dubbed Decree No. 76, on 29 July authorising the use of handguns, machine guns, explosives, and supporting devices on board Vietnam Directorate of Fisheries vessels....to read more
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Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Reading some of the articles concerning the SE china sea I am a bit concerned if we are not closing into flash point.
SB...need Links for/to those articles. Thanks.

Blakstone and all. As to the comments that the Chinese gov's efforts to create a "Chinese Christian Theology" is the same as western changes to Buddhism. It is not the same. Huge difference. Private people changing doctrine to fit their desires, and thus create a new sect is very different from an official government effort to come up with a distinctive government "approved," Chinese brand of Christianity.

Anyhow, let's leave religion out of geopolitics as super moderator Tphuang has requested in the past.

Thanks.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Abe has been openly lobbying for a summit with Xi Jinping on the side of the Asia Pacific Economic Forum this November. I have mixed feelings about a premature summit between the two leaders. On the one hand, it's a good opportunity to exchange frank views in private and maybe some good would come of it (doubtful); on the other hand, China shouldn't back off its sovereignty over the Diaoyu islands, and entertaining a summit between Xi and Abe might just give the impression China believes Japan has victor's rights over stolen territory.

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is the albatross that hangs over the necks of the two peoples, and no real peace could be had until its ghost is properly exorcised.

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The Jiji Press reported on Monday that “informed sources” told the publication that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will not be revisiting the controversial Yasukuni Shrine this Friday, to commemorate the 69th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in the Second World War. Abe’s visit to the shrine last December, where 14 Class-A Japanese war criminals are interred, produced an immediate and visceral reaction across the region (with even the U.S. expressing “disappointment”), particularly among those nations Japan had formerly subjugated. Even if Abe does not visit, it will be important to monitor which (if any) of his Cabinet members or senior LDP officials visit the shrine.

The sources also indicated that Abe will refrain from visiting the shrine in the hope that a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEC) summit in November will happen. Indeed, China has made it known through several channels that Abe would have to abstain from going to the shrine again, while recognizing that there is a territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

Yasukuni Shrine is a lightning rod for controversy, given its strong association with Japanese nationalism. It was founded during the Meiji Restoration by the then emperor, and has been a memorial to Japanese war dead (now numbering almost 2.5 million) since it was opened. Aside from Class-A war criminals, it has memorialized 1,054 Class-B and Class-C war criminals since 1978. Shrine officials on Monday, in response to written requests, have said that the removal of any remains is impossible, “Once-enshrined deities can’t be removed.” The officials also said that Japan’s engagement in previous wars was for “self-existence and self-defense.”

Abe’s statements over the last few weeks, combined with both formal and informal visits and requests between Japanese and Chinese officials, show that he in all likelihood will not visit on Friday. However, that may not be enough to appease China, and particularly Xi Jinping, who likely see no real benefit in handing Abe a diplomatic victory without something substantial in return. Visits to Yasukuni by other Japanese officials, especially Cabinet members, will also hurt Abe’s chances of a meeting. Shrine officials have said they welcome such visits, and the Japan Times reported that some Cabinet members, in particular National Public Safety Commission Chairman Keiji Furuya, are planning on commemorating the anniversary at Yasukuni.

As for China’s other stipulation to a bilateral meeting, that Japan recognize that there is a dispute over sovereignty with the Senkaku/Diaoyu, it is highly unlikely that Abe will make any concessions. Japan insists the islands are an inherent part of its territory. If Abe can keep most of his Cabinet away from Yasukuni on Friday, and also keep them from making inflammatory nationalist speeches, there may be room to negotiate a meeting. The final answer will rest on Xi’s calculus of the domestic cost of meeting with Abe, compared to the possible benefits – both economically and in terms of regional stability.
 

joshuatree

Captain
Abe has been openly lobbying for a summit with Xi Jinping on the side of the Asia Pacific Economic Forum this November. I have mixed feelings about a premature summit between the two leaders. On the one hand, it's a good opportunity to exchange frank views in private and maybe some good would come of it (doubtful); on the other hand, China shouldn't back off its sovereignty over the Diaoyu islands, and entertaining a summit between Xi and Abe might just give the impression China believes Japan has victor's rights over stolen territory.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
is the albatross that hangs over the necks of the two peoples, and no real peace could be had until its ghost is properly exorcised.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Shrine officials on Monday, in response to written requests, have said that the removal of any remains is impossible, “Once-enshrined deities can’t be removed.”

Yeah okay then, create a new shrine and re-enshrine the 2.5 million minus 1054, problem solved Japan.


Indeed, China has made it known through several channels that Abe would have to abstain from going to the shrine again, while recognizing that there is a territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

It's obvious Abe won't concede to these reasonable demands so send a lower level official to meet Abe on the sidelines at APEC to not reward Abe yet not portray China is not willing to open the door.

Then invite Abe to a summit in China with Xi at the Nanjing Massacre Memorial Hall. If Abe's all about peace and not about militant past, this should not be a problem. Also, China can tell the world "see, we left the door open".
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Yeah okay then, create a new shrine and re-enshrine the 2.5 million minus 1054, problem solved Japan.
It's risky to mess with people's religion, so the world should accept Japanese priests' statements that once enshrined, remains can't be removed. A solution involves the following-

1) Japanese government must stop whitewashing its imperial and wartime past, post haste. Teach Japanese youth the unvarnished truth of what happened; not to browbeat them, but to make sure future generations of young Japanese understand history as it really was.

2) Enact laws prohibiting elected Japanese officials of any rank from visiting Yasukuni Shrine, while they're in office (private individuals have the right to do as they choose).

3) The Emperor invites the Japanese and foreign Press to televise a heartfelt apology to the world, listing Japan's major war crimes and crimes against humanity. He should also use his moral authority to urge government bureaucrats to stop whitewashing school textbooks. He should also urge senior elected officials to stop making excuses for Japanese imperialism and wartime atrocities.

It's obvious Abe won't concede to these reasonable demands so send a lower level official to meet Abe on the sidelines at APEC to not reward Abe yet not portray China is not willing to open the door.
Yes, a meeting between the Assistant to the Assistant Foreign Ministers might be okay to keep the diplomatic door ajar. Said meeting shouldn't last more than 30 seconds;

China- does Japan recognize the Diaoyu dispute?
Japan-no.
China- goodbye!

Japan- yes.
China- let's talk.

Then invite Abe to a summit in China with Xi at the Nanjing Massacre Memorial Hall. If Abe's all about peace and not about militant past, this should not be a problem. Also, China can tell the world "see, we left the door open".
No leaders summit unless and until Japan admits there's a dispute over Diaoyu! There should be no flexibility on that. Meanwhile, si vis pacem, para bellum!
 

solarz

Brigadier
2) Enact laws prohibiting elected Japanese officials of any rank from visiting Yasukuni Shrine, while they're in office (private individuals have the right to do as they choose).

Agreed. This is the simplest and easiest way to address the criticisms on the shrine. The fact that it has not been implemented after some 60 years shows that the "religious" excuse is just that: an excuse. In the end, the fact remains that it is politically useful for Japanese politicians to be seen paying respects at the Shrine, and the reason for this is found in the minds of the Japanese people themselves.

I have said this before, but in the end, whether or not Japan comes to terms with its war past is their own business. China only needs to know how to deal with Japan based on its attitude. If the Japanese people insist on glamorizing their war past, then they will need to learn to deal with animosity from the Chinese and Korean peoples.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Reading some of the articles concerning the SE china sea I am a bit concerned if we are not closing into flash point.

I doubt it. No one is going to mine the SCS unprovoked, the first article is scaremongering. And china criticising Vietnam for arming fisheries vessels isn't anything unexpected either
 
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