Chinese Geopolitics

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Equation

Lieutenant General
No one is insisting on Christianity or any other religion on the Chinese, except the Communist Party bosses who dictate to people what churches they may attend in peace, and what churches will get them harassed.

Well somebody has to keep an eye and ear on these "churches" from getting out of hand and start instigating trouble. If these people wants to have deep spiritual gathering and practice they should done so according to law NOT what they think is appropriate.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Gordon Chang's semi-identical twin brother was on the Charlie Rose show, predicting the collapse of China, again. I understand some people are just naturally skeptical, and will mostly take negative views of China's reemergence, but what isn't clear is why the same doom and gloomers get so much air time in Western media, even though events prove them wrong time after time.

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Jim Chanos was on Bloomberg TV's Charlie Rose on Thursday night talking China — and so yes, as expected, it was dark.

But there was a whole new political element to Chanos' negativity that we had not heard from him before.

"The anti-corruption drive, which is something we've been focusing on for the last year and a half, since Xi Jinping has been in power, is actually much more than that," Chanos told Rose. "It now appears to us to be a far more serious effort to cleanse the party. And if you look at the people's daily overnight announcements — I mean, there is four or five headshots put up on Twitter and on their website, of people who have been taken away every night. I mean it's almost as if you're seeing a Soviet-style 1930s purge through a social media ... People are falling out of buildings. I mean I'm not exaggerating ..."

Yes, you hear about the national politicians who get taken away, but the lower-level officials never make U.S. headlines, and they're getting taken all the time.

The problem, Chanos continued, is that this purge is beginning to affect the economy in terms of consumption because a "large number of things like apartment sales, high-end luxury products, were bought with basically dirty money."

It's well known that Chanos thinks China's infrastructure and housing development has the country on a "treadmill to hell." Growth (the speed of the treadmill) has to remain at a healthy number like 7.5% of GDP, so even if there's not enough organic consumption (i.e. people to live in houses and use roads), development must continue.

The dirty money that he's talking about, though, was real people paying for real things they were using with real cash — corrupt or not.

To Chanos, Xi is doing this to consolidate his own power. He sees Xi as more of a Putin — one man leading the country — rather than one man leading a committee.

"Although he [Xi] is a communist, and part of the Communist Party ... he is a nationalist," Chanos said. "And I think that two years ago, three years ago, we would have said he will be first among equals. I think it's very fair to say now he's first. And that he's going to be much more firm, much more aggressive, and much more muscular in the way he looks at the world."

This isn't a new way to look at leadership in China. In fact, this idea of how the country should be governed has existed since the 1980s; it's called neo-authoritarianism.

It argues that China needs a strongman who also believes in capitalism to really get China's economy in gear. Everyone else can sit down and enjoy the ride.

Xiao Gongqin, a history professor at Shanghai Normal University started arguing this in the 1980s, and based it on Deng Xiaoping, an authoritarian economic reformer.

So it's not like this idea doesn't have any fans.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Well somebody has to keep an eye and ear on these "churches" from getting out of hand and start instigating trouble.
Agreed. There are some troublemakers masquerading as religion, and the Communist Party of China government has a legitimate role in policing them. The crux of the matter is what constitutes keeping the peace and what is religious oppression.

If these people wants to have deep spiritual gathering and practice they should done so according to law NOT what they think is appropriate.
Yes and no. Even with the best of intentions, local and national Communist governments walk fine lines between oppressing religions and their legitimate governance. There are reports of millions of Christian Chinese forming underground churches, precisely because they believe Communist officials crossed the line between lawful governance and religious oppression.
 

SamuraiBlue

Captain
Gordon Chang's semi-identical twin brother was on the Charlie Rose show, predicting the collapse of China, again. I understand some people are just naturally skeptical, and will mostly take negative views of China's reemergence, but what isn't clear is why the same doom and gloomers get so much air time in Western media, even though events prove them wrong time after time.

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Since you did put it up you could consider him as the devil's advocate and not a dooms day prophet since besides his predictions, what he does speak of within the interview is basically the truth, (economy based on unmanageable development projects leaving ghost towns of unprecedented scale, utterly unfounded GDP statements of past year within 10 days after year close,etc.)
 

shen

Senior Member
Since you did put it up you could consider him as the devil's advocate and not a dooms day prophet since besides his predictions, what he does speak of within the interview is basically the truth, (economy based on unmanageable development projects leaving ghost towns of unprecedented scale, utterly unfounded GDP statements of past year within 10 days after year close,etc.)

He is playing devil's advocate from both sides of the fence. Just empty rhetoric, if I'm give this kind of analysis to my boss, I'd be fired.

1)He mentioned that four years ago they talked about corruption is a serious problem. Now he admit the anti-corruption drive is showing serious result, but he now predict anti-corruption is going to cause economic problem by lowering consumption.
2)He says that economic data coming out of China can't be trusted since the government cook the book. But later he mention that when economic growth slows to 7.4% from the 7.5% target, the government have to pull out all the tricks to stimulate the economy again. If the government can just make up the number why do they even bother to use stimulus, why can't they just cook the book?
3)He claims investment is an even bigger share of the economy today.
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Well, may be the investment is not slowing down as fast as the planners want. The goal is go for a soft landing, not a crash. Look at the ideologically driven crash program in Russia in the 90's or in Chile. To a free market ideologue, shifting government policies, centrally planned fine tuning of the economy may be heretical. But that's what China has been successfully doing since the 1980's. Every time the economy moves too far in one direction, the government is willing and able to quickly change policy and re-adjust.
 

LesAdieux

Junior Member
He is playing devil's advocate from both sides of the fence. Just empty rhetoric, if I'm give this kind of analysis to my boss, I'd be fired.

1)He mentioned that four years ago they talked about corruption is a serious problem. Now he admit the anti-corruption drive is showing serious result, but he now predict anti-corruption is going to cause economic problem by lowering consumption.
2)He says that economic data coming out of China can't be trusted since the government cook the book. But later he mention that when economic growth slows to 7.4% from the 7.5% target, the government have to pull out all the tricks to stimulate the economy again. If the government can just make up the number why do they even bother to use stimulus, why can't they just cook the book?
3)He claims investment is an even bigger share of the economy today.
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Well, may be the investment is not slowing down as fast as the planners want. The goal is go for a soft landing, not a crash. Look at the ideologically driven crash program in Russia in the 90's or in Chile. To a free market ideologue, shifting government policies, centrally planned fine tuning of the economy may be heretical. But that's what China has been successfully doing since the 1980's. Every time the economy moves too far in one direction, the government is willing and able to quickly change policy and re-adjust.

Chanos runs a hedge fund, he advocates short everything on China. if he did what he preached, he would be broke long time ago.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Since you did put it up you could consider him as the devil's advocate and not a dooms day prophet since besides his predictions, what he does speak of within the interview is basically the truth, (economy based on unmanageable development projects leaving ghost towns of unprecedented scale, utterly unfounded GDP statements of past year within 10 days after year close,etc.)

If people like Gordon Chang and Jim Chanos are right, then China would have been bankrupt and in chaos years ago. I respect those who call them as they see them, but would change their views based on evidence and reason, but I don't respect those that turn blind eyes to empirical data and cry havoc by rote.
 
I am really not too sure where to put this post but I think it does have geopolitical implications, more so than just financial ones. I also don't know if anyone had already posted this somewhere else. Moderators please move this post if you feel another thread would be more appropriate.

I am surprised they didn't institute something like this long ago.

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All departments must submit reports on cadres' family background to single out those who are 'graft risks'

China's anti-graft watchdog is ramping up efforts to uncover so-called “naked officials” in 10 provinces by probing the entire ranks to see who has family abroad.

Anti-graft authorities are wary of such overseas connections, as it could be a way of moving large sums of money out of the country.

The official website of Jilin’s Dunhua county said it received orders from provincial authorities to collect information about the families of “government workers from all departments”.

The order was also sent to local governments in Anhui, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jilin and Sichuan, the Southern Metropolis Daily said.

Officials must pay particular attention to those whose relatives have “obtained foreign citizenship or foreign residence permits”, the notice said.

The Guizhou government has ordered departments of all levels to submit a summary by the end of July, according to an official statement.

"Naked officials”, a term signifying that the official has been left behind in China by their family, have been a rising concern in President Xi Jinping’s anti-graft crackdown against “tigers” and flies”, or powerful leaders and lowly bureaucrats.

Naked officials are considered a graft risk as most can easily travel abroad, emigrate or transfer money – which means they could evade investigation and punishment.

Wang Zhengnan, director of the ninth inspection team under the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), told officials in Fujian yesterday that they uncovered “many naked officials among middle-level” bureaucrats.

The results were in a feedback report by the CCDI, which has wrapped up the first round of inspection tours in 10 provinces and municipalities, as well as some state-owned enterprises and ministries.

The problem of “naked officials” are especially prevalent in Fujian, , a coastal province in the southeast; Guangdong; and other coast provinces with a history of emigration, Xu Yaotong, a professor from the China National School of Administration told the Southern Metropolis Daily.

In Guangdong, 866 officials, including nine bureau-level cadres and 134 department-level ones were forced to retire early, were demoted or transferred to nominal posts, the provincial authority said last month.

Until now, no severe punishments have been announced against naked officials. There is also no regulation requiring government employees to declare their assets.

Still, the Central Organisation Department – which is in charge of staffing, among others – issued a regulation barring all naked officials from holding key posts in the government and military.

These include those “whose spouses have moved abroad” or, if they have no spouse, “whose children have moved abroad”.

These cadres “should not hold services in chief posts in Communist Party committees, the people’s congress, discipline and legal departments, SOEs, posts related to military, diplomacy, public and national security, national defences and all the posts related to financial supervision and technological security”.

It defined “moving abroad” as “obtaining foreign citizenship or permanent or long-term foreign resident permits”.

Naked officials will be banned from promotion if their spouses or children fail to give up foreign citizenship, according to a separate regulation released by the organisation department in January.
 

tphuang

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If people like Gordon Chang and Jim Chanos are right, then China would have been bankrupt and in chaos years ago. I respect those who call them as they see them, but would change their views based on evidence and reason, but I don't respect those that turn blind eyes to empirical data and cry havoc by rote.

Chang and Chanos are different. Chang has his beliefs because his personal beliefs against China. Chanos has made a career shorting different asset classes. He sees China as a huge bubble, as does many people. You can believe one way or the other, but Chanos is not the only economist with that position. Please check up on the extremely respected Andy Xie and what he has to say with regard to the Chinese economy.
 

tphuang

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Well somebody has to keep an eye and ear on these "churches" from getting out of hand and start instigating trouble. If these people wants to have deep spiritual gathering and practice they should done so according to law NOT what they think is appropriate.

Let's keep religion out of this thread.

Just on the topic of this particular building, there are two huge problems here.
1) If Chinese authorities really want to, they can pretty much punish anyone for violating a variety of laws in the country. This case as in many others, they only choose to follow the letter of the law against a party they do not like.
2) They could've stopped this much earlier in the construction, but they didn't until it was built. They let the people spend all the money and energy to build it and then decide to tear it down.
 
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