Chinese Geopolitics

Blackstone said:

Nope, China's true enemy is Japan and not the US. I say that because at the end of the day, the US could always pack up and leave (not that we would), but Japan will always be close at hand, looking for opportunities to cause trouble. Make no mistake about it, the Third Sino-Japanese war of 1895-? never ended, and is picking up steam again. Even if China wins a decisive victory and finally ends the 3rd Sino-Japanese war in her favor, there's no guarantee Japan wouldn't start a fourth one sometime in the distant future.

China and America are learning to live with each other, and friction is natural until some kind of compromise is had. I have no doubt it'll happen, and I hope it's soon. Conversely, history has shown Japan can't live in peace with its neighbors without a hegemon standing over it, and the central question is if the US should be that hegemon or China, or both.

Click to expand...

Note that I said "adversary", not enemy. There is a big difference between the two terms.

I do not believe China and the US want to hurt each other, but they are very much in competition for global influence.

As for Japan, like the Mongols, its window of opportunity has passed. Perhaps it will arise again sometime in the distant future, but then, so could countries like Korea, Vietnam, or India. You can't really predict the distant future, so it's rather pointless to make policies based on "ifs".

For the foreseeable future, Japan by itself is no match for China. It is only a threat because it is effectively an FOB for the US.

Blackstone said:

You missed one of the most important point of Webster's definition: not legally disqualified. In the US, it means non-citizens of all flavor can't legally vote. Most reasonable people would agree the US has universal suffrage, and if China comes anywhere close, I'll say she has it too.

Click to expand...

By that definition, Athens would qualify. Athenian law stipulated that only adult male citizens could vote. Hence women and slaves were legally disqualified.

solarz said:

By that definition, Athens would qualify. Athenian law stipulated that only adult male citizens could vote. Hence women and slaves were legally disqualified.

Click to expand...

Yours comment is out of context to my messages on universal suffrage, and I standby my statement that most reasonable people would agree currently the US has universal suffrage and China doesn't.

solarz said:

Note that I said "adversary", not enemy. There is a big difference between the two terms.

I do not believe China and the US want to hurt each other, but they are very much in competition for global influence.

Click to expand...

Agreed.

As for Japan, like the Mongols, its window of opportunity has passed. Perhaps it will arise again sometime in the distant future, but then, so could countries like Korea, Vietnam, or India. You can't really predict the distant future, so it's rather pointless to make policies based on "ifs".

For the foreseeable future, Japan by itself is no match for China. It is only a threat because it is effectively an FOB for the US.

Click to expand...

Japan is not a threat to China because it's a vassal state of the US, it's a threat because it doesn't want China to be the leader of Asia, and would go to great lengths to oppose Pax Sinica; with allies if it can, but alone if it must. Japan's national policy is to oppose any form of Sinic neo-tributary system, even if that system is relatively benign.

Blackstone said:

Yours comment is out of context to my messages on universal suffrage, and I standby my statement that most reasonable people would agree currently the US has universal suffrage and China doesn't.

Click to expand...

You defined modern democracy as having universal suffrage, but your definition of universal suffrage would include ancient Athens. Ergo, your definition of modern democracy would include societies that practiced slavery and excluded women from voting.

Therefore, your definition of modern democracy is insufficient.

Blackstone said:

Agreed.
Japan is not a threat to China because it's a vassal state of the US, it's a threat because it doesn't want China to be the leader of Asia, and would go to great lengths to oppose Pax Sinica; with allies if it can, but alone if it must. Japan's national policy is to oppose any form of Sinic neo-tributary system, even if that system is relatively benign.

Click to expand...

A lot of nations oppose a Chinese hegemony, would they all be threats to China?

China is not expressly seeking hegemony. It is just that China is such a huge nation, its actions will inevitably have repercussions among its smaller neighbors. Furthermore, *because* China is such a huge nation, it is *expected* to seek hegemony, and its actions are scrutinized on the basis of that expectation.

For example, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Philippines and Taiwan all have competing claims in the SCS, and all have taken steps to stake their claim. However, only China's actions make people think it is seeking a regional hegemony, even though the other claimants have done the same things over the decades.

Ever since the First Emperor united the Middle Kingdom, China has been surrounded by smaller states or tribes that paid tribute to China when it was strong, but raided or outright invaded it when it was weak. Japan was not the first, and as long as China continues to exist as a "civilization-state", it will not be the last either. Hopefully however, that would not happen for a long, long time.

If we define the term "enemy" as a nation or organization that seeks to do us harm, then the only enemy China has right now are Uighur extremists. Everyone else are just adversaries in the Great Game.

Blackstone said:

Japan is not a threat to China because it's a vassal state of the US, it's a threat because it doesn't want China to be the leader of Asia, and would go to great lengths to oppose Pax Sinica; with allies if it can, but alone if it must. Japan's national policy is to oppose any form of Sinic neo-tributary system, even if that system is relatively benign.

Click to expand...

What gain does Japan has by trying to prevent China from being the leader in Asia? The elite Japanese rulers knows very well they don't have the size and resources to take on China eventually so why bother? Why not adjust to the coming time and do with what they have instead by being a prosperous island nation?

I think China will be perfectly happy with the US being called leader of everything because it's a superficial title. Just don't going around thinking you can order China around. It's just like how the US is given the title of "policeman of the world." Some Americans don't like it but the fact is that means power and influence around the world. Americans aren't willing to give that up. So when you hear people say they are glad to hand over that title to China because they believe China is the number one power in the world now, what they're really saying is now China has to deal with all the problems in the world... that the US dictates as problems not what China sees as problems because we know the US and China differ on that subject. Or look at what happened at Copenhagen in 2009. The West declared China was a "superpower" where they reluctantly withheld that honor before. Why? Because now they thought they could dictate to China its responsibilities... something they were doing before when they didn't bestow that title. So what's the difference in a title?

AssassinsMace said:

I think China will be perfectly happy with the US being called leader of everything because it's a superficial title. Just don't going around thinking you can order China around. It's just like how the US is given the title of "policeman of the world." Some Americans don't like it but the fact is that means power and influence around the world. Americans aren't willing to give that up. So when you hear people say they are glad to hand over that title to China because they believe China is the number one power in the world now, what they're really saying is now China has to deal with all the problems in the world... that the US dictates as problems not what China sees as problems because we know the US and China differ on that subject. Or look at what happened at Copenhagen in 2009. The West declared China was a "superpower" where they reluctantly withheld that honor before. Why? Because now they thought they could dictate to China its responsibilities... something they were doing before when they didn't bestow that title. So what's the difference in a title?

Click to expand...

Basically, we see a lot of the West telling China what it should and shouldn't do, but very little (if any) of vice versa. At the risk of sounding cliche, I don't think the colonial mentality has quite worn off yet.

solarz said:

Basically, we see a lot of the West telling China what it should and shouldn't do, but very little (if any) of vice versa. At the risk of sounding cliche, I don't think the colonial mentality has quite worn off yet.

Click to expand...

You and I see the same things, but from different angles. It's true the US likes to tell others what to do, but that's more from the American sense of exceptionalism than any lingering colonial mentality (which embarrass the typical American). China has her own sense of exceptionalism too, which was muted during the Century of Humiliation, but the giant is now awake, and the tectonic plates of global politics is beginning to shift. America and China are much alike, peas in the exceptionalism pod, and both see themselves as 'middle kingdoms.'

In another forum I was arguing with a Japanese who was coming from the belief Japanese were superior to other Asians because he saw Japanese as white. I've come across Filipinos who use the Spanish in them from colonialism as to link to Europe in order to declare themselves white. All to say they deserve more than other Asians. Why would people declare it if one didn't believe they deserved more than others? You see Indians use being able to speak English as to claim they deserve more than Chinese. The irony is China isn't getting some special privilege from some belief in the world today. Since speaking English and having a democracy is suppose to be advantages, China's has come from working for it.