Chinese Engine Development

Japan sees China as the communist peril and presented as a threat almost in the league of North Korea. China considers Japan an extension of the US when it comes to foreign policy and containment. It would benefit both if these half-truths were more properly thought through and reversed. If Europe could get over their centuries/millennia of warring and bad blood, so too can Asians. China and Japan already have a somewhat functional trade relationship, off of which politics is partially built.

Japan remains the only real regional military challenge to China (India not so much and South Korea not positioned in the way Japan is) but if it can be demonstrated and convinced that China's overall rise would not be at the danger and loss for Japan and its interests (as long as Japan no longer carry any ambitions of dominating Asia), China would be able to persuade its main military threat against working for the Americans. We're a long way away from where modern day France and Germany are but the intentions are there despite flare ups. At least from the Chinese side because the CCP would like nothing more than a friendly and neutral Japan who can be written off as a non-thread if things were to properly escalate with the US. While many aspects are working and improving, the two nations are still weary of each other and both have ambitions. This isn't even counting the Koreas. I personally respect Korean and Japanese technology innovation and it would surely be ideal if the three can get along and cooperate in certain ways more than we are doing now. Of course there are many issues and finger pointing going around but if this were to ever happen, everyone would witness the US move to implement an entire east Asian Plaza Accord 2.0, many times more aggressive than how they played Japan in the 80s and 90s.

Since Engines are what we are discussing here, it is quite important to understand about Fiber reinforced Ceramic Matrix Composite. CFR CMC.

A FR CMC can be seen as analogue to (steel) Reinforced Concrete.
Here the fibers are used to enhance the Z directional strength of the ceramic and therefore could be used extensively in the core components of the Engines as it combines extreme thermal tolerance, strength for the weight

Why are we entertaining this guy...anyone who can perform a google search will know that China has companies that make CMCs and that a lot of these materials are becoming pretty mature...

latenlazy said:

Why are we entertaining this guy...anyone who can perform a google search will know that China has companies that make CMCs and that a lot of these materials are becoming pretty mature...

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The whole thing was born out of Samurai Blue's misunderstanding of Xsizor. Anyway Samurai's post was to make the point that Japan was the first to innovate and produce these materials and maybe he's not aware China can fabricate some or all of them now along with materials the Japanese most likely don't have.

I don't think anyone truly believes Japan wasn't and isn't a tech superpower. It's not alarming people as Man said but that's not entirely true. Japanese innovations in auto still alarm the Germans and have recently left German internal combustion and drivetrain technology in the dust. Japanese military may not be alarming anyone with their own MIC but if their nationalists got their way, it would and should be very alarming to many. Japan may not be the only consumer electronics and gizmo superpower of the 90s and 00s anymore, replaced by Koreans and Chinese now but that's quite a narrow selection.

SamuraiBlue said:

I think some people needs to chill for a moment. (Not towards the above article bt people talking about battle with the US in another thread)

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Then why are you posting it in this thread if you are trying to tell people in another thread to 'chill'?

SamuraiBlue said:

Yeah , yeah once PRC is able to develop composites like CMC, Transparent Ceramic and/or, High modulus Carbon fiber like HR40 (which was all developed independently by Japan) then we may listen but till then its all bark with no bite.

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According to Nature Index, both top institutions of physical science and chemistry are located in China. So I think it's quite reasonable to assume that sooner, rather than later, China will have breakthroughs in material science, including those materials used in jet engines. In fact, if you go to the NEV thread to take a look, China is already at the forefront of EV battery science, which requires the mastery of both physical science and chemistry. I anticipate China will catch up in material science for jet engines in 5 years.

ougoah said:

Chinese didn't make ballpoint bearings, Switzerland doesn't make GIS/GNS systems, Japan doesn't make nuclear weapons, Russia doesn't make high end IC, France doesn't make supercomputers etc etc... I think the ballpoint bearing analogy used by the author of that article misses the point entirely especially considering how he applied it. Okay maybe the idea was to say that engines aren't quite an engineering problem equivalent to controlling the cost of ballpoint bearings. Still I think you missed Xsizor's point. Japan is a technologically capable nation (consistently a leader) and yet there are situations where it can be made to seem otherwise such as the prevalence of cassette tapes and other "strange" anachronisms. We all know it would be foolish and untrue to use that as some sort of evidence that Japan isn't a tech dominant nation. Similarly talking about China's past "inability" to make ballpoint bearings is stupidly misunderstanding why. Surely it's at least been proven it wasn't an issue of ability but rather one of simple economics.

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Switzerland population 9 million, Japan 125 million, Russia 145 million, France 70 million... all those countries' population and GDP combined is only a fraction of China's.

Also, France, Switzerland and Japan don't need to make those things because they get them from the US. They are happy to be subservient to the US. So is Russia to a lesser extent. Anyway, there is little risk of the US banning IC exports to Russia as it did to Chinese companies.

The US makes (or can make) everything on your list.

The reason why China is being scrutinized at this level is that it is the only one with pretensions to challenge the US, to "stand up to the US" and it fights with everyone and has no significant allies, so if the US tells France not to ship Safran engines to China or tells Netherlands ASML not to ship SME to China, China can't get it unless it makes it itself.

Of course if China had better foreign relations then it would not need all this.

latenlazy said:

Why are we entertaining this guy...anyone who can perform a google search will know that China has companies that make CMCs and that a lot of these materials are becoming pretty mature...

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Well, partly true. But within the context of Turbofan engines, the fact is that China is still behind the west in incorporating CMC into engines.

GE is the establishment most successful in pushing for CMC in the Turbine shroud hot section. They are successful because Nippon Carbon (Japan) is successful in mass production of Sic Sic CMC.

Ofc, the intention is to incorporate CMC to everywhere except the core section that has SCB. That's the final goal. And GE is slowly moving to achieve that goal.

I don't see China anywhere in this but I don't think it's a cause for great concern. Incorporating CMC can be seen as incremental progress. China first need to mass produce and induct civilian Turbofans.

Meanwhile gov investment into CMC research (mass production) is necessary so that within two decades China would be able to introduce the Tech into its Turbofans.

gadgetcool5 said:

Switzerland population 9 million, Japan 125 million, Russia 145 million, France 70 million... all those countries' population and GDP combined is only a fraction of China's.

Also, France, Switzerland and Japan don't need to make those things because they get them from the US. They are happy to be subservient to the US. So is Russia to a lesser extent. Anyway, there is little risk of the US banning IC exports to Russia as it did to Chinese companies.

The US makes (or can make) everything on your list.

The reason why China is being scrutinized at this level is that it is the only one with pretensions to challenge the US, to "stand up to the US" and it fights with everyone and has no significant allies, so if the US tells France not to ship Safran engines to China or tells Netherlands ASML not to ship SME to China, China can't get it unless it makes it itself.

Of course if China had better foreign relations then it would not need all this.

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If they don't want to sell to China they will get ****** in the near future.
There are 2 simple choices really: sell to use or we will get it somehow in the future and put you out of business. And this is not a speculation. it has been happening in every single domain.
ASML is already one foot into the coffin.

gadgetcool5 said:

The reason why China is being scrutinized at this level is that it is the only one with pretensions to challenge the US, to "stand up to the US"

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You mean China is the only country with the potential and the power to challenge the US. None of those countries other than Russia has a plan other than, "follow the strongest guy and hopefully that leads to the taking the least number of punches to the face."

gadgetcool5 said:

and it fights with everyone and has no significant allies,

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Russia, the most significant country in the world other than the US and China, disagrees.

gadgetcool5 said:

so if the US tells France not to ship Safran engines to China or tells Netherlands ASML not to ship SME to China, China can't get it unless it makes it itself. Of course if China had better foreign relations then it would not need all this.

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Strength trumps foreign relations. The stronger country gets its say because its vassals fear its wrath. Fear and power prevails; foreign relations can do nothing for you. And don't be a slacker. No country deserves to be the world's strongest if it relies on others for its strength. China has more STEM talent than all developed nations combined. There is no excuse for relying on others and no easy shortcut to the top; China can and must master every every technology itself.