Chinese Engine Development

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Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
Numbers look quite credible to me. Ws19 is timed for j-31 (or vice versa)and that wont get into serial production for another 5 years or so.

Ws15 is also who knows how far away from being ready. The very fact we are now seeing ws10 on j20 means ws15 is likely st least 5 years away from serial production. Otherwise there would be little sense in changing j20 engines every few years.
 
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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
From the same "filing" or report by CISRI, I find two things interesting.
  1. XS-15: low volume trial production　小批量试制
  2. PD-14 and PD-35 engine casing: predicted volume 300 per year. SURPRISE!!!
Regarding the number "5 per year through 2026" for "engine 15"
  1. 5 per year is a good match for low volume trial production. One does not make a lot of them when the final technical and manufacturing details are not settled yet.
  2. through 2026 may be disappointing to some people, BUT then isn't 2025 always the target for volume production? This date was not changed since I began to follow 15's progress years ago. A commercial company giving itself a bit margin is IMO perfectly alright.
 

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ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
taxiya said:
through 2026 may be disappointing to some people, BUT then isn't 2025 always the target for volume production? This date was not changed since I began to follow 15's progress years ago. A commercial company giving itself a bit margin is IMO perfectly alright.
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It's worse than that. The company projects 5 engines per year with a 20% share in 2020 (meaning 25 engines in total). They project 5 engines in 2026 with a 50% share - so they aren't being shy, they think they'll be going from 20% to 50% of the market in 6 years. If it were true, total production would fall from 25 now to 10 in 2026. That just doesn't pass the smell test.

The charitable interpretation is that this is probably an intern who copypasted columns without properly changing the entries. Unfortunately, this is such a flagrant error that the entire source should be totally discounted.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
5 per year from 2020 to 2026 actually looks pretty good for an engine that we’re not sure is even done with development testing. If they’re making five a year that would imply all the development testing is pretty much done, and they’re primarily in pre-production and low rate initial production phases of the project now.
 
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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
ZeEa5KPul said:
It's worse than that. The company projects 5 engines per year with a 20% share now (meaning 25 engines in total). They project 5 engines in 2026 with a 50% share - so they aren't being shy, they think they'll be going from 20% to 50% of the market in 6 years. Like I said, this is probably an intern who copypasted columns without properly changing the entries. If it were true, total production would fall from 25 now to 10 in 2026. That just doesn't pass the smell test.
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Why do you insist that this is a "intern copy/paste" mistake? This is a legal document of the company to the stock regulator. Or are you expecting a public "correction" of the "mistake"? It certainly will come IF indeed an error.
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
taxiya said:
Why do you insist that this is a "intern copy/paste" mistake? This is a legal document of the company to the stock regulator. Or are you expecting a public "correction" of the "mistake"? It certainly will come IF indeed an error.
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Why would total production fall from 25 WS-15 engines in 2020 to 10 in 2026? We're among friends so I don't mind stating aloud that the Chinese stock market is a fraudulent pile of crap, so its regulators don't impress me.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
ZeEa5KPul said:
It's worse than that. The company projects 5 engines per year with a 20% share in 2020 (meaning 25 engines in total). They project 5 engines in 2026 with a 50% share - so they aren't being shy, they think they'll be going from 20% to 50% of the market in 6 years. If it were true, total production would fall from 25 now to 10 in 2026. That just doesn't pass the smell test.

The charitable interpretation is that this is probably an intern who copypasted columns without properly changing the entries. Unfortunately, this is such a flagrant error that the entire source should be totally discounted.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure that “share” isn’t the share of the engine to the marker, but the share of the supplier to the engine.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
ZeEa5KPul said:
Those numbers are a joke. LMAO @ 5 WS-15s in 2026. This - if it's even accurate - was probably put together by a bored intern who copypasted the columns and forgot to change the entries.


Look again.


They aren't accurate.
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I think for the last few years it's been accepted that WS-15 won't be entering widespread service until ~2025.

The idea of producing 5 engines per year for a few years is not crazy --- however I find it a bit strange that they are producing the same number of engines each year for six whole years.
It is possible that there may be some kind of bottleneck that is projected, but I also find it a bit dubious that production would remain static for six straight years.


I'd be interested in waiting to see what if any of the usual insiders have to say about this.
 
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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
ZeEa5KPul said:
It's worse than that. The company projects 5 engines per year with a 20% share in 2020 (meaning 25 engines in total). They project 5 engines in 2026 with a 50% share - so they aren't being shy, they think they'll be going from 20% to 50% of the market in 6 years. If it were true, total production would fall from 25 now to 10 in 2026. That just doesn't pass the smell test.

The charitable interpretation is that this is probably an intern who copypasted columns without properly changing the entries. Unfortunately, this is such a flagrant error that the entire source should be totally discounted.
Click to expand...
Regarding the Share vs. Number. You interprets that because total number is not changed but share increased from 20% to 50%, that means the total number of XS-15 is decreasing. But you forget that this is a product for PRE-volume production. Along with the maturity of the production specification, the pre-production volume will decrease or even cease earlier than 2026. It is not the number of volume production predicted after 2025/2026 which is 300 per year.
 
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