That article is fake news.
Unless Europe is going to be the new Trump and start a trade war with China.
That would be so cool!
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Unless Europe is going to be the new Trump and start a trade war with China.
That would be so cool!
The US has gained practically nothing from its two plus years trade war with China.
The trade deficit with China has actually increased; 3000+ US companies are suing the Trump administration for the increased tariffs. The US companies are clearly hurting and they need China. True, the Chinese export to the US has fallen, by only 10% while the overall Chinese export has slightly increased because Chinese has increased its trade with other regions of the world.
The trade war is now expanded into tech war: hostage has been taken, 70+ companies are added to the Entity List, Huawei is being hurt. But the US technology companies are also hurt and worried. Meanwhile China is determined to become self-sufficient in technologies. We're in for a long term struggle. There have been no precedents where the US has successfully stopped China's technology developments even though it has applied sanctions in numerous technologies/industries: satellite, defense (e.g. AWACS), supercomputer, nuclear power plant etc.
When all these were started, it was supposedly to be a trade war that is "easy to win," now we're at the foothill of a second Cold War.
It really doesn't have to be this way, but the pride/arrogance/sense of superiority have carried the day. Sad.
D
Deleted member 15887
Guest
This was China's last year's quarterly GDP growth breakdown (in billions):
Now, as you may already know, China's Q1 (-6.8%) and Q2 (+3.2%) GDP data came out a while back. Our table looks more like this with these new inputs:
For China to attain an ideal GDP Growth Rate of 3% YoY for FY2020, it would need to aim to have a total GDP output this year of ¥9906.51*1.03= ¥102,059.11 RMB (in billions).
For this to occur, China's Q3 and Q4 GDP growth rates must be at least an average of +6.939% for China's FY2020 GDP to
Now, Nikkei is predicting China's Quarter 3 GDP growth will be 5.2% YoY, an average forecast based on the estimates by 29 economists, ranging from 2.5% on the low end to 7.1% on the high end. Nikkei and Reuters surveys both underestimated China's Quarter 2 GDP growth by ~1-2% compared to the actual growth statistics (Nikkei underestimated by 2.1%, Reuters underestimated by 0.7%). So, arguably, one can predict that China's Q3 GDP growth was more like around ~6.5%. Let us presume China's Q3 GDP growth is 6.6% YoY. Plugging this into the table will get us:
This will mean that, for China to achieve at least 3% YoY GDP growth, given if China's GDP grows by 6.6% YoY in the 3rd Quarter, China will need to attain a GDP output of ¥29,816.59 RMB (in billions) in the 4th Quarter, which would translate to a putative growth rate of +7.0246%
Plugging all of this into the final table yields us:
Note, figures in bold and underline font are just my predictions/estimates, not the real released statistics. The true sets of GDP figures for Q3, Q4, and FY2020 could be worse or it could be better than my own predictions. However, this post is meant to give you just a sense of what growth is needed for the rest-half of this year for China to attain +3% GDP growth YoY, which Premier Li Keqiang says is the most optimal figure China should strive for.
Please discuss what you think of these estimates and predictions! Do you think China can attain 3%+ GDP growth this year?
| Year | Q1 GDP | % Growth | Q2 GDP | % Growth | Q3 GDP | % Growth | Q4 GDP | % Growth | Total GDP | % Growth |
| 2019 | 21,806.28 | 6.4 | 24,257.38 | 6.2 | 25,220.87 | 6.0 | 27,801.97 | 6.0 | 99,086.51 | 6.1 |
Now, as you may already know, China's Q1 (-6.8%) and Q2 (+3.2%) GDP data came out a while back. Our table looks more like this with these new inputs:
| Year | Q1 GDP | % Growth | Q2 GDP | % Growth | Q3 GDP | % Growth | Q4 GDP | % Growth | Total GDP | % Growth |
2020 | 20,323.45 | -6.8 | 25,033.62 | +3.2 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | 21,806.28 | +6.4 | 24,257.38 | +6.2 | 25,220.87 | +6.0 | 27,801.97 | +6.0 | 99,086.51 | +6.1 |
For China to attain an ideal GDP Growth Rate of 3% YoY for FY2020, it would need to aim to have a total GDP output this year of ¥9906.51*1.03= ¥102,059.11 RMB (in billions).
For this to occur, China's Q3 and Q4 GDP growth rates must be at least an average of +6.939% for China's FY2020 GDP to
Now, Nikkei is predicting China's Quarter 3 GDP growth will be 5.2% YoY, an average forecast based on the estimates by 29 economists, ranging from 2.5% on the low end to 7.1% on the high end. Nikkei and Reuters surveys both underestimated China's Quarter 2 GDP growth by ~1-2% compared to the actual growth statistics (Nikkei underestimated by 2.1%, Reuters underestimated by 0.7%). So, arguably, one can predict that China's Q3 GDP growth was more like around ~6.5%. Let us presume China's Q3 GDP growth is 6.6% YoY. Plugging this into the table will get us:
Year | Q1 GDP | % Growth | Q2 GDP | % Growth | Q3 GDP | % Growth | Q4 GDP | % Growth | Total GDP | % Growth |
2020 | 20,323.45 | -6.8 | 25,033.62 | +3.2 | 26,885.45 | +6.6 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2019 | 21,806.28 | +6.4 | 24,257.38 | +6.2 | 25,220.87 | +6.0 | 27,801.97 | +6.0 | 99,086.51 | +6.1 |
This will mean that, for China to achieve at least 3% YoY GDP growth, given if China's GDP grows by 6.6% YoY in the 3rd Quarter, China will need to attain a GDP output of ¥29,816.59 RMB (in billions) in the 4th Quarter, which would translate to a putative growth rate of +7.0246%
Plugging all of this into the final table yields us:
Year | Q1 GDP | % Growth | Q2 GDP | % Growth | Q3 GDP | % Growth | Q4 GDP | % Growth | Total GDP | % Growth |
2020 | 20,323.45 | -6.8 | 25,033.62 | +3.2 | 26,885.45 | +6.6 | 29,816.59 | +7.2 | 102,059.11 | +3.0 |
2019 | 21,806.28 | +6.4 | 24,257.38 | +6.2 | 25,220.87 | +6.0 | 27,801.97 | +6.0 | 99,086.51 | +6.1 |
Note, figures in bold and underline font are just my predictions/estimates, not the real released statistics. The true sets of GDP figures for Q3, Q4, and FY2020 could be worse or it could be better than my own predictions. However, this post is meant to give you just a sense of what growth is needed for the rest-half of this year for China to attain +3% GDP growth YoY, which Premier Li Keqiang says is the most optimal figure China should strive for.
Please discuss what you think of these estimates and predictions! Do you think China can attain 3%+ GDP growth this year?
Are these numbers in box in USD or CNY?
A logical move, USA sanctions Iran, China saves Iran, the USA dominance as the world reserve currency has its days numbered
D
Deleted member 15887
Guest
CNY, of course
CSIS? Bonnie glacier show?
Lol.
Have listened to almost every podcast . There was one podcast I can particularly remember where her guest said , Chinese government might face uprising due to banning of broadcasting basketball.