Chinese Economics Thread

[TPenglake]

If they can do one-child policy with forced sterilization, they can do mandatory 3 child policy with heavy fines, penalties on job promotion and so on to boost child birth as well. Depends on how vital for national security it is to boost birth rate. Only 2 years ago millions were locked down in their homes for months again due to national/political security. So, they still have the power to do it.

Um, and do you remember how that ended?

 

[TPenglake]

It's actually insane for people to be having these conversations. 1CP was absolutely insane. It caused a lot of heartbreak for people having to have their kids aborted at any stage in their pregnancy (even when viable preterm)! And this was caused by preventing people from having a second kid - an effect that is a lot less significant than forcing women to have kids.

Humans have one of the worst deliveries out of any mammals - there is a reason why babies are so helpless, and why maternal mortality was so high before modern medicine, and why there are so many complications that arise from childbirth. For people to be saying you need to force women to have kids and then take care of them for 18 years is disgusting.

There are a lot of Han Chauvinists/misogynists here that really don't understand that the CPC is still a communist party, and as such is committed to women's liberation. Don't get me wrong - there are still contradictions both from a traditional culture side (aka rich people having mistresses and also from the spoiling of single daughters (aka my ex), but the general direction they are moving in is still correct.

I think the best solutions would be to remove the negative externalities that result from having kids in modern society. I think the recent adjustments by the government are good, such as removing preschool fees from the last year of preschool, and trialing of subsidies for kids is also very welcome. This is the same effect as a tax on child-free couples and individuals, but a lot more distributed, in the same way that subsidies are usually better than tariffs. A slow population decrease should be targeted, around 1.6-1.8 TFR.

I'll just straight up say it in that you do have to remember many members here and other patriotic overseas Chinese in general found spaces like this through a certain rabbit hole known as Reddit.

So when it comes to issues like feminism and demographics, its not surprising to see some rather, colorful opinions to say the least.

 

[fishrubber99]

To change the topic, analysis of July's economic data and investment activity has been relatively weak. I believe this is the result of the government's recent anti-involution measures in trying to curb unproductive investment and encouraging the leaving of bad/unproductive firms from the market. You can see there has been a meaningful drop in manufacturing investment to 3.9% YoY in July from 6% in June.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1956611680869237074

This means Q3 will most likely be a weak quarter for economic growth as the government is confident in trade talks with the US due to the constantly refreshing 90 day tariff deadline (so the macro external environment is more predictable) and strong H1 economic growth results (at 5.4% growth), so they want to pursue some of their anti-involution restructuring now. Property investment is still a drag on growth but has leveled out in the past few months, without an obvious rebound yet.

 

[siegecrossbow]

In China, middle-aged people and elderly people in cities have large savings, but the young people who have the strongest desire to consume have no money at all.

They get money from parents/grandparents anyway. Chinese boomers are a different breed. Reason so many people get to lie flat is because their parents bailed them out.

 

[In4ser]

Yeah I think Chinese parents tend to spoil their kids more. Not only are they more likely to have an only child but kids are encouraged to stay at home, especially with boys as they keep the family name. Traditionally in China, girls leave the family when they marry, so they're pressured to be more independent than boys as they're expected to move out (i.e. creating mama's boys).

This is different than say Anglo-Saxon customs when encourage kicking out as their sons immediately when they turn 18, which pushes them to be more independent. It might be cruel but its much like with Lions, you have kick out the males and force them strong otherwise you won't have strong men to carry the rest of society. Its either sink or swim, you sacrifice many, so one can shine. It's really hard to replicate creating high quality men as opposed to women similar to wild horses. A wild/troubled men who experience hardship will nearly always be a stronger characters than domesticated/tame men are who grow in privilege and civility.

 

[Overbom]

Xi is the real leader of Gen Z

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1957088797700522266

 

[TPenglake]

This is different than say Anglo-Saxon customs when encourage kicking out as their sons immediately when they turn 18, which pushes them to be more independent.

Even "Anglo Saxons" rarely do that nowadays due to skyhigh property values.

 

[Wrought]

Indian hesitance amid Trump's tariffs is facilitating cheaper oil imports as of late.

Oil refiners in China have stepped up purchases of Russia’s flagship crude, seizing an opportunity to take discounted cargoes relinquished by India as Washington ramps up trade tariffs against New Delhi. While China is the largest importer of Russian oil, it tends to take deliveries from the nation’s Far East. Yet so far in August, shipments of Urals — which loads from Baltic and Black Sea ports — were almost 75,000 barrels a day. That’s almost double the year-to-date average of about 40,000 barrels, according to Kpler. In contrast, exports to India sunk to no more than 400,000 barrels a day this month, compared with the average of 1.18 million.

“Generally, Chinese refineries are in a comfortable position to keep taking Russian oil for now, in contrast to Indian refiners,” said Jianan Sun, an analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. Urals — which ships from Russia’s west — remains competitive against alternative grades from the Middle East, Sun said.

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[Wrought]

Trade and investment flows with the Global South have surged since 2018, and the structural trend is set to continue. This is of course partially in response to US tariffs, but also a product of the long-term shift towards new markets. Tariffs are just a catalyst.

Leading Chinese firms are heading to the Global South amid rising US tariffs on Chinese goods since 2018. S&P Global expects this trend to continue as companies look to diversify sales away from the US and expand to other markets with stronger growth prospects than at home. This trend is reflected in the rapidly growing trade between China and the Global South, which includes most of the developing world. China now exports over 50% more to these regions ($1.6 trillion) than to the US and Western Europe combined ($1 trillion). Booming trade has helped secure Chinese firms’ access to these markets. On average, China’s trade with its top 20 trading partners in the Global South amounts to nearly 20% of these countries’ GDP (Figure 1).

Chinese firms are not just redirecting goods for re-export through these regions. They are increasingly producing them there. This requires investing in the local economy. Their investments in China’s four largest trading partners in Southeast Asia, for example, have quadrupled over the past decade to an average of $8.8 billion annually. These investments are likely to continue in the age of tariffs — not just to avoid new levies or secure resources, but to develop end markets and reduce reliance on US sales. New tariffs motivate Chinese firms to explore markets offering pull factors such as facilitating policies or deepening commercial relations with China. The tariffs’ negative effects may also serve as a push factor as they weigh on growth in these firms’ home market.

In its recent statements, the Chinese government noted the “rise of the Global South” as the “future of development.” This view is also reflected in the core strategies and future plans of many leading Chinese companies. As they continue to head to the Global South, the result could be a new order of global commerce where South–South trade becomes the new center of gravity and Chinese multinationals emerge as the new key players.

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[Michael90]

Yeah I think Chinese parents tend to spoil their kids more. Not only are they more likely to have an only child but kids are encouraged to stay at home, especially with boys as they keep the family name. Traditionally in China, girls leave the family when they marry, so they're pressured to be more independent than boys as they're expected to move out (i.e. creating mama's boys).

Blame that on another unintended consequences of the one child policy. I can't blame those parents much. I have 4 children, but if i was forced to have only 1 child, i can also imagine i would also spoil that child since he will be the only offspring i will have on earth, the only one i will leave behind after my death. It's normal there will by default be a higher probability that he will be more spoiled than if he had siblings. Lol Luckily i have 4(one already moved out not long ago (over 19) now, so of course things are different.

To be bonest, if i had just 1 child i will never even allow him to join the army/military for example. I dont even know how those parents who have onlh 1 child and that child joins the military, cant imagine how the parents will feel so worried in case a conflict ever happens.
So we have to also put ourselves in their shoes,and as a parent i know how that feels.