Chinese Economics Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

China's migrant population drops in 2017
Xinhua | Updated: 2018-12-25 18:21


BEIJING -- China's migrants numbered 244.5 million in 2017, 820,000 less than in 2016, according to an official report.

China's migrant population, people who leave their hometown to seek employment or education elsewhere, continued to grow for decades but began a slow decline starting in 2015, said an annual report on migrants released by the National Health Commission.

The number of elderly migrants kept growing but the number of child migrants dropped in the past few years, according to the report.

The moving population has generated demographic dividend during the past decades, as a large amount of surplus of labor in rural China moved into the cities to create wealth for both their own families and society, said the report.

The report showed that more of the migrant population has shifted from the primary industry to the service sector since 1978.

In 1978, 70.5 percent of the migrant population worked in the primary industry while only 12.2 percent in the service industry. In 2016, 27.7 percent worked in the primary industry and 43.5 percent in the service sector.

As the labor and resource-intensive industries are moving from eastern China to central and western China in recent years, the migrant population has followed the same move, said the report.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

China's migrant population drops in 2017
Xinhua | Updated: 2018-12-25 18:21


BEIJING -- China's migrants numbered 244.5 million in 2017, 820,000 less than in 2016, according to an official report.

....

As the labor and resource-intensive industries are moving from eastern China to central and western China in recent years, the migrant population has followed the same move, said the report.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

According to a study by Zhang and Yang,

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

reached the Lewis point in 2010; cheap labor in the country has rapidly decreased and real agricultural wages have substantially increased.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Despite its large population, in the early 2010s China faced labor shortages, and real wages nearly doubled since 2003. Such rapid rise in wages for unskilled work is a key indicator of reaching the Lewis point.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

However, other journals such as the

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

claim that China has not reached the Lewis point, comparing the effect of the Lewis point in China to the Japanese experience.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

A 2013 working paper by the

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

predicts the Lewis point in China to "emerge between 2020 and 2025"

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
Huawei ships over 200 mln smartphones in 2018
Xinhua| 2018-12-25 17:51:39

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Chinese technology firm Huawei said on Tuesday that it had shipped more than 200 million smartphones so far this year, a new record high for the company.

In 2010, Huawei's smartphone shipments were 3 million units, according to market research firm IDC.

The company overtook Apple in the second and the third quarters of 2018 to become the world's second-largest phone vendor, IDC said.

Richard Yu, CEO of Huawei's consumer business group, said the group hopes to become a pioneer and leader in the new generation of the smartphone revolution, continue to create values for the consumers and make Huawei a more favored global brand.

Headquartered in the south China city of Shenzhen, privately-owned Huawei is a world-leading telecom solution provider and also one of the world's major smartphone brands.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

According to a study by Zhang and Yang,

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

reached the Lewis point in 2010; cheap labor in the country has rapidly decreased and real agricultural wages have substantially increased.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Despite its large population, in the early 2010s China faced labor shortages, and real wages nearly doubled since 2003. Such rapid rise in wages for unskilled work is a key indicator of reaching the Lewis point.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

However, other journals such as the

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

claim that China has not reached the Lewis point, comparing the effect of the Lewis point in China to the Japanese experience.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

A 2013 working paper by the

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

predicts the Lewis point in China to "emerge between 2020 and 2025"

Lewis point is an outdated concept formulated before the advance of internet, robot and 5G.AI. There will still be hundred of million surplus labor in china in decades because the trend of renting small plot to bigger and more productive farmer As well many descendant of the small plot farmer are reluctant to continue with the farming they preferred the work in the cities

Also agriculture is entering high yield productivity due to increasing use of automation, robotic tractor and harvester combine with Ag UAV, Beidou AI Read this

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Automated agriculture could help solve all these problems. It should boost yields, slash the cost of producing food, and alleviate China's chronic rural pollution by reducing the need for fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides.

Some experts reckon that the technology may actually work best on smaller plots, as swarms of light, inexpensive robotic tractors could help farmers supercharge productivity on the cheap.

Amid all the optimism, though, some problems are already looming.

Most obvious is the threat to jobs. The percentage of China's workforce employed on farms has fallen drastically, from 55 per cent in 1991 to 18 per cent last year.

But that's still some 250 million people, many of whom could well be displaced. Odds are, automation will create plenty of jobs elsewhere in the economy by improving productivity.

But that will be small comfort to farmhands who will need to find new work. China, like other countries dealing with automation's fallout, will need to have a plan for those workers.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China’s Small Farms Are Fading. The World May Benefit.
Traditional plots of land are slowly becoming parts of bigger operations, eroding a way of life but enriching local residents and helping more Chinese people move into the modern world.

By Michael Schuman

• Oct. 5, 2018

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

SHANHUI, China — This village doesn’t change quickly. The ebb and flow of the planting and harvesting seasons still govern the lives of its 3,000 residents. Some rise at 3 a.m. to cook homemade tofu, a Shanhui specialty, over a coal-burning stove. Most homes remain topped by traditional Chinese tiled roofs, here crowned by carved dragon’s heads, as is local custom.

Zheng Nanda worked the fields that surround this village in the northern province of Shanxi for more than four decades, often behind a plow pulled by cows. He is now in his early 70s and too old for such arduous labor. His children long ago left for jobs in the city and have no interest in farming.

So Mr. Zheng became an unlikely agent of change. He has rented almost all of his small plot to other farmers, who work it using modern equipment. The $500 a year he earns in rental income helps keep him comfortable in his neatly manicured courtyard home.

“I won’t want to join my children in the city,” he said. “There is a Chinese saying that ‘fallen leaves return to the roots.’”

As young people leave for the cities, more small farmers like Mr. Zheng are leasing their land for others to work. That is a monumental shift for a country where small family farms have dominated the rural landscape for centuries.

Other wealthy countries, like the United States, saw farms grow as the rural population shrank. Only relatively recently has that begun to happen in China. In the 1980s, the government broke up the giant communes favored by Mao Zedong and redistributed the rights to farm individual plots to households. Further changes in government policy in the mid-1990s made those land rights secure enough for farmers and others to have the confidence to rent land on a wide scale. China’s agriculture sector is far from being dominated by big commercial farms, as it is in the United States, but the process has begun.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Lewis point is an outdated concept formulated before the advance of internet, robot and 5G.AI. There will still be hundred of million surplus labor in china in decades because the trend of renting small plot to bigger and more productive farmer As well many descendant of the small plot farmer are reluctant to continue with the farming they preferred the work in the cities

Also agriculture is entering high yield productivity due to increasing use of automation, robotic tractor and harvester combine with Ag UAV, Beidou AI Read this

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In "old times" in east EU it was enough to get a trip west, get ideas and copy over businesses , and get money making business from it.
It was only matter of money to make more money .
Now, in the west there is no easy way like this, everything require lot of work, deep understanding and dedication.

This is the situation in the UK example, it is easy to get loan/money/investment for a business, but to make it you need to be better than the competition.

In the 90 is EEU it was enough if you had money and willingness to run business, and you had a windfall of money.
But now it is close as hard to make money there like in UK.

I have to say "hard" is true only if you don't have the right mindset : )
But hey, capitalism is about to found the best person for job that fit, hyperactive for business, slow guys for administrative jobs : P

And technology doesn't change anything, the current business environment/difficulties not different from the one that you saw in the 19th century London.

In retrospective it is easy to say "yeah, the big thing in the 70s was the IC, but was easy for them to have simple ob to know the future" it is easy to know now, but was as hard then like today.

 

[vincent]

Please don't respond to the dude

 

[Jura The idiot]

now noticed the tweet

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Eastern China's Zhejiang Province, home to Internet giant Alibaba and several large courier companies, shipped over 10 billion parcels in 2018, according to the provincial postal administration

 

[Anlsvrthng]

now noticed the tweet

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Eastern China's Zhejiang Province, home to Internet giant Alibaba and several large courier companies, shipped over 10 billion parcels in 2018, according to the provincial postal administration

Apart from that I wouldn't be happy to see my parcel like this, I think it is another indicator of the lack of(cheap) workforce.
It cost more money to rent /own a warehouse just to keep the unsorted packages (in the middle of customer area....) than to hire few extra hand and sort them out.

 

[Jura The idiot]

noticed about a progress in

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

in the Indian source
China is making a Beijing-Tibet expressway and it has military implications for India
21 December, 2018

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

now

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
Yearender-Economic Watch: Substantial tax cuts boost Chinese economy
Xinhua| 2018-12-27 19:36:36

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Starting Jan. 1, 2019, Chinese taxpayers will be able to handle their income tax deductions by filling an application form using just an app.

To alleviate the tax burden of Chinese taxpayers, the government has announced special individual income tax deductions which will go into effect on Jan. 1, 2019.

The new measures cover six categories, including children's education, continuing education, health treatment for serious diseases, housing loan interests, rent and elderly care.

Tax cuts are a major policy priority for the Chinese government. On Oct. 1, China introduced new tax brackets which raised the minimum threshold for personal income tax from 3,500 yuan (about 507 U.S. dollars) to 5,000 yuan per month.

In May, China also launched tax cut measures for value-added tax (VAT), lowering the tax rate from 17 percent to 16 percent for industries including manufacturing, and from 11 percent to 10 percent for transportation, construction, basic telecommunication services and farm produce.

The personal income tax cuts reform optimizes the tax structure, particularly benefiting the low and middle-income population, said Luo Tianshu, an officer of the State Administration of Taxation (SAT).

VAT cuts have accelerated the transformation and upgrading of Chinese companies, eased the burden on high-tech and small companies and promoted entrepreneurship and innovation.

History has proven that lowering personal income tax is a crucial strategy to stimulate consumption, said Chen Lifen, a researcher with the Ministry of Commerce.

By adding to the growth of disposable income and adjustment of income distribution, tax cuts effectively boost consumers' spending power and stabilize economy and society, Chen added.

Commenting on tax cuts, netizen "Huyijian" said the move takes taxpayers' economic conditions into consideration to ensure fairness of China's tax system and improve people's livelihoods.

Minister of Finance Liu Kun said the move would improve the income distribution system and people's livelihoods, and release consumption potential.

During May-October this year, aggregate VAT payment decreased by 298 billion yuan, involving 9.26 million taxpayers from industries including manufacturing, transport and architecture, official data showed.

"2018 will see a total tax reduction of 1.3 trillion yuan," Liu Kun said. More tax cuts will be launched next year.

According to the annual Central Economic Work Conference which concluded last week, China is unveiling bolder and more effective measures to implement the proactive fiscal policy with a larger scale of tax cuts.