Lethe
Captain
Chinese GDP is forecast to be about $13.2 trillion in 2018, surpassing the EU in nominal (not PPP) terms
The Eurozone is not the EU.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
The Eurozone is not the EU.
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Lieutenant General
Fluctuations.
There is a new peak of Chinese car manufacturing every year, sometimes, more than once a year. See here the link below. Click on 10-year or MAX trend (very important). Now you see Chinese car manufacturing fluctuates every year but the general trend is rising.
If that's too complicated for you, just take a look at this link, which smooths out all the fluctuations so people like you don't panic and misinterpret micro-data. Here, it's easy to see that even though 2017 Q4 dropped a little, 2017 total still grew from 2016. Similar growth rates to this period were seen in 2011-2012 and 2014-2015. Certainly, the growth in 2016-2017 was greater than between 2010 and 2012, when China's car production stalled for a year. So as you see, the micro-data means nothing when put into perspective with the big picture.
It's a lot harder than that to make China's economy look bad; try much much harder (or just become more educated but you will probably not take the latter route).
I think the simple fact the UK had eight years of higher growth than the EU showing the complete failure of the euro.
The brexit will send a big shock throguth the UK economy : )
Even now the biggest issue is the hiring for businesses, after 2019 it will start to kill every ineficient business.
Capitalis in its best : )
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Lieutenant General
First Japan, and now the EU. Up next...the USA. This is the reality that some China watchers have refused to realize and take notice of the changing time that we are living in.
There is a seasonal fluctuation in the numbers, however if you took the 12 month rolling number then you have similar dip in 2009 and in 2012.
And interestingly, the Chinese car sales are two times higher than say the eastern europeans, calcualted per thousands residents.
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Lieutenant General
The first sentence is simply a restatement of what I just said. It means that these are normal fluctuations that China's economy has seen before and did not signal any negativity in the economy on the large scale. There is no need to reply to me by rewording what I already wrote.
99% of the Chinese population doesn't care are about the general economy ( max few "real patriot" about the pride and stadning of China, like on these forums)
They care about the stuff that they can buy , and for the the GDP growth meaningless, but the consumption growth is the most important.
Like the voters in the brexit wasn't impressed with the GDP, trade , banks and so on numbers, they checked the paycheck and the grocery bill, and made the decision based on that.
This makes a lot of noise about the trade war between china vs world : this is bad for the wealthy (regardless of the residence) and good for the general population of the deficit countries.And all of its effect can be compensated in the surpluss countires by the same level of goverment stimulus, like happened in the US during the second world war.
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Lieutenant General
LOL What?? Are we still talking about Chinese car manufacturing? It seems like you have nothing left to say, but don't want to look like you lost, so you're starting another entirely random topic.
First of all, I need a citation for "99% of Chinese don't care about they economy" claim because I'm 100% sure you don't know anything about Chinese people and pulled that "statistic" out of your behind, like you've been know to do on many occasions. I understand that where you're from, people may not care about the country, just themselves, but different countries have different cultures. Don't assume things in China are the same as where you're from.
Don't care about Brexit.
Don't start this crap about trade wars again. I remember everything. You made a false claim about what Keynes said, people asked you to prove it, and you looked stupid because he never said that. Don't do this to yourself again. If you want to relive the trade wars debate, just read those old posts again LOL.
LOL What?? Are we still talking about Chinese car manufacturing? It seems like you have nothing left to say, but don't want to look like you lost, so you're starting another entirely random topic.
First of all, I need a citation for "99% of Chinese don't care about they economy" claim because I'm 100% sure you don't know anything about Chinese people and pulled that "statistic" out of your behind, like you've been know to do on many occasions. I understand that where you're from, people may not care about the country, just themselves, but different countries have different cultures. Don't assume things in China are the same as where you're from.
Don't care about Brexit.
Don't start this crap about trade wars again. I remember everything. You made a false claim about what Keynes said, people asked you to prove it, and you looked stupid because he never said that. Don't do this to yourself again. If you want to relive the trade wars debate, just read those old posts again LOL.
I get monthly data about car manufacturing, but I haven't got access to tv,phone, pork or whatever sales.
I want to spot the moment when the system start to chane to the other stability point, and it looks like at the moment the consumption data give the best proxy for that,and the most probable time for the movement to the new chatoic atractor is Q3 fo 2017.
And yes, please read back Keynes about international trade, you will be suprised how well his view mathch Mr Trump strategy : D
But generaly I don't care about your emotions,partioic feelings and so on, but you made a claim about that the car sales will bumb it back to x% growth soon.
Based on what you made this claim?The Chinese car sales are higher already than the similar GDP PPP countries similar data. So, why will it grow further ?
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Lieutenant General
What you want and what you get are different. Using monthly data to determine general economic trends is stupid and pointless. You can draw all the conclusions you want but they're wrong and only for you to pass time. This should have been the end of our conversation about cars had you not tried to save face by going of topic.
No, you said Keynes said that trade wars benefit the deficit nation. Then people asked you to find where, (not that a 100 year old economic theory holds true today even if it did) but you couldn't. And your pathetic strategy has been to ask people to read ALL the works of Maynard Keynes as if someone's supposed to spend weeks reading this to try to prove a random statement that you made to be right or wrong. You couldn't find the passage where he said that and you looked stupid. Bringing the topic up again makes you look much worse, like a man hitting himself on the head with a rock... twice.
You don't know why I believe that China's car production will continue to grow? There's very good reason people on here say you can't even read charts. I showed you 2 charts that show that China's auto-production rate for over a decade and every year, it expands and contracts, but altogether, the expansions outweigh the contractions and thus, the overall trend has been continuously upward. This shows me that historically, it has always, every year, done what it is doing now, and in the end, the total result is expansion. So historically, this supports further expansion to follow the trend. You wouldn't need this word explanation if you were educated enough to read the 2 charts I posted. That's what charts are for...
For your last sentence (stupid question), there are no countries in the world with similar GDP PPP data to China so I don't know what data you are imagining this time, but it's wrong too. In the end, why will it grow further? Because it will; China always grows. This is analysis from trend, separate from patriotism.