Chinese Economics Thread
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In the case of steel the commerce department has recommended that the US either impose a global tariff of “at least” 24 per cent on all imports or levy a 53 per cent tariff on imports from a list of 12 countries including China, Brazil, India, South Africa and Vietnam as well as a quota of 100 per cent of 2017 imports for all remaining countries. A third option calls for the US to limit imports via a blanket quota equal to 63 per cent of countries’ 2017 steel exports to the US. If we ever have a conflict we don’t want to be buying steel [from] a country we are fighting Donald Trump For aluminium the report recommends either a global 7.7 per cent tariff or a higher 23.6 per cent tariff on products from China, Russia, Venezuela and Vietnam, accompanied by quotas for everyone else equal to 100 per cent of their 2017 exports to the US. A third option calls for a quota of 86.7 per cent of 2017 exports for all countries that ship aluminium to the US.
Looks like it is not only China, but global war : )
However in the first place why China has so much aluminium capacity?
The aluminium is solid electricity ( require 14 kWh to make one kg )
supercat
Major
Because of the sheer size of China's investment and the number of investment planners involved, the absolute number of bad investment decisions in China might be higher than those in other countries. However, there is no evidence that the ratio of bad investments among all investments in China is proportionally higher than those in other countries. So overall the soundness of Chinese investment is comparable to countries with similar per capita GDP.
There is no evidence of any data that can be usd to to calculate the ROI on economical size apart from the stable level of investment on China level with decreaing GDP growth from the named investment.
So finaly yes, the return on the past 15 years investment falling, considering that this mix contain everything created since 90 , AND the initial investment had massive positive impact we can expect that the current investments has negative return.
This is the part where we know that the Chinese investment representing roughly 50% of all fixed asset investment of the world.
So, NO ,there is no comparable economy around the world, this is an unique experience.
There's a cantonese idiom for what you are doing 跌落地揦返拃沙 how long are are you going to keep this nonsense going, there's no point to it and chaining random words from a economics thesaurus doesn't make a coherent argument. It doesn't take a dozen pages to say YOU THINK "THE CHINESE ARE WASTING THEIR MONEY" but end of the day it's theirs to waste, you just come off as that annoying person who bleats on about the depreciation on the new car in your neighbour's drive and how much they could have saved buying a 3 year old one which totally misses the point of buying a new car!
To steal the phrase from Mastercard “there are some things in life money can’t buy… for everything else there's ROI"
: )
It is more af predicting the future.
The analysis of the now and past gives indication about the possible futures that we will facing.
Knowing what hapens now and what will happen is not making judgement about person, group of people or country , but rather than understand what options the future holding for us.
Sadly to talk about problems, and analyse why something can't work is a national characteristic of my thinking , and I apreciate that the people from other nations found this annoying many times
So, to keep the conomic activity stable, and the population happy China has three ways to go( and keep the income of the average citizen on growing path) :
1. investment - the share of investment from GDP growth falling , so it is safe to say the return on investment for new projects falling
2.consumption - it is financed from debt, not from wage increase, and based on the available data it is peaked in 2017 ( but if not then it will peak before 2020)
3. Export ( growing of trade surplus) - it contributed to the GDP growth negativly, and the biggest net trade deficit country want to start a trade war.
So, it is safe to say we geting close to a singularity point, the determinant of the decision matrix zero at the moment , and the transformation is not invertible.
: D
I don't know what will happens, but something will happens.
Jura The idiot
General
Anlsvrthng
just admitted to nationalistic trolling:
Chinese Economics Thread...
Sadly to talk about problems, and analyse why something can't work is a national characteristic of my thinking , and I apreciate that the people from other nations found this annoying many times
?
Or you want to interpret it like this : ) Me ( and typicaly everyone in my home country ) usually thinking about the problems, and anlyse them : ). Everythign that left is the solution.
It is a way of thinking, not about "nationalistics " : )
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Hear , hear Exactly who is he to give advice to China? As the only country who can pulled 700 millionpeople out of poverty within the time span of 30 years without enslaving or exploiting other people like you know who, China does not need advice from newbee
How can you put social development, poverty alleviation, improving regional imbalance into quantitative number?
Building a country is not the same as investing in stock market so all those giberish stock market metric like ROI , ROE are meaningless. Building and draggin impoverish country like China need vision, boldness, fortitude and managerial skill to pull it together
If every body do simple ROI nothing will be built like China's neighbor to the south
it is case of penny wise but dollar foolish erg pound sterling foolish