Chinese Economics Thread

[Blackstone]

If you can't beat them, join them. Seldom were truth better spoken. Donald Trump's blunder on the TPP is a gift that keeps giving, for China.

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TOKYO -- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Monday said his government "is ready to extend cooperation" for China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, sending another signal that Tokyo wants to mend fences with Beijing ahead of a possible bilateral summit next month.

Also known as the "One Belt, One Road" program, Chinese President Xi Jinping's signature initiative is designed to expand the country's economic sphere by linking it with the rest of Asia and Europe through infrastructure like roads and railways. While Abe expressed a willingness to get involved, he stressed the projects should adhere to international norms.

Speaking at a dinner reception during Nikkei Inc.'s International Conference on The Future of Asia, Abe said "it is critical for infrastructure to be open to use by all, and to be developed through procurement that is transparent and fair."

The projects must be economically viable as well, he said.

In May, Beijing hosted a high-profile Belt and Road Forum to build momentum for the initiative. Wary of China's growing influence over the region, Japan initially had no intention of participating. In the end, it sent a delegation headed by Toshihiro Nikai, secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, who told Xi of Abe's desire to rebuild the bilateral relationship.

In his address, Abe said he expects the Chinese initiative to "come into harmony with the free and fair trans-Pacific economic zone, and contribute to the peace and prosperity of the region and the world."

Only last year, Abe had said at the same venue that "infrastructure cannot be cheap and poor," in a not-so-discreet jab at China's pet initiative. "We look at cost and effectiveness through the total life cycle of the project," he had said.

Now, Japan's eagerness to improve ties stems, in part, from concern that China and the U.S. might band together to deal with North Korea and other issues -- eroding Japanese influence in East Asia. Closer Beijing-Washington ties could upend Tokyo's plan to apply pressure on China over territorial matters in the East and South China seas, in collaboration with the U.S.

On Wednesday, Abe met with Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi in Tokyo and agreed to work to arrange a bilateral summit and other high-level talks in July, when the Group of 20 leaders meet in Germany. The two sides also agreed to work closely to denuclearize North Korea.

Still a TPP believer

Prime Minister calls for projects to be transparent, economically viable

Abe's address at the conference dinner also touched on the state of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, following the U.S. withdrawal. Abe said he is determined to proceed.

"Unfortunately, the TPP has yet to come to fruition," he said. "I, however, will never give up."

He added that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, can take cues from the TPP framework. The RCEP is another proposed multilateral trade framework involving China, India, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

"RCEP, which is our future goal, can become a high-quality agreement by building on the rules that came to fruition under the TPP," Abe said. "Now, we are at a critical juncture."

 

[taxiya]

Abe is double betting, or standing on two boats "脚踩两只船".

Japan is welcomed and always welcome on board of OBOR if Abe moves his foot out of boat TPP and stop lecturing others about "international norm" and following TPP standards. Most of us here know what TPP really is and China is not a fun of it.

It is a "critical juncture" for Japan as Abe said, because the two boats may (very likely) sail further apart, standing on both of them will get Japan falling into the water if not making a quick choice.

 

[taxiya]

There is a latest notion of China negotiating with Saudi Arabia regarding settling Saudi Oil export to China by CNY.

The latest claim on Zerohedge,

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An article in late 2016,

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In August we spoke about the

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which was launched in October 2015, which unlike the Brent and WTI does not settle contracts in US dollars but in yuan.

Today, oil trade between China and Russia and Iran are settled by currencies of the related countries. Russia is the number 1 oil exporter to China as of now (15% of China's import), followed by Saudi (less than 15%, a drop from 25% in 2008).

 

[manqiangrexue]

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According to the World Bank, for the next 2 years, 35.2% of all global growth is expected to come from China and 17.9% from the US. They do note, however, that they laid down the American numbers from things as they are now and can't be responsible for any unpredictable craziness that Trump brings about LOL

 

[Orthan]

Foreign Policy article about china´s hard-to-pay loans to venezuela and how it contributed to the situation venezuela is facing today. It makes a comparition with the situation with the OBOR program.

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Well, if the maduro government colapses, china could be in for a debt renegociation, potencially losing bilions. And thats just venezuela.

 

[Equation]

Foreign Policy article about china´s hard-to-pay loans to venezuela and how it contributed to the situation venezuela is facing today. It makes a comparition with the situation with the OBOR program.

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Well, if the maduro government colapses, china could be in for a debt renegociation, potencially losing bilions. And thats just venezuela.

Those loans always comes with certain kind of clauses attached. So if all else fails in Venezuela, they can always repay it with oil (regardless of how low oil prices is).

The article is just another sour grape blaming China for Venezuela's ineptness on using those loans. Neither China or any body put a gun to their head into accepting those loans.

 

[PiSigma]

Foreign Policy article about china´s hard-to-pay loans to venezuela and how it contributed to the situation venezuela is facing today. It makes a comparition with the situation with the OBOR program.

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Well, if the maduro government colapses, china could be in for a debt renegociation, potencially losing bilions. And thats just venezuela.

Or than, I noticed a lot of articles you link are all either very biased or filled with holes. There was a thread on the forum on decent sources and which sites we consider take with giant cup of salt. Foreign policy is one of those salt one. I suggest you look up that thread and read a couple other sources.

Also when reading anything you should think for yourself and not believe the article word for word and see if it even make sense. Or in the very least what the author left out to try to skew your perspective.

 

[Blackstone]

Or than, I noticed a lot of articles you link are all either very biased or filled with holes. There was a thread on the forum on decent sources and which sites we consider take with giant cup of salt. Foreign policy is one of those salt one. I suggest you look up that thread and read a couple other sources.

Also when reading anything you should think for yourself and not believe the article word for word and see if it even make sense. Or in the very least what the author left out to try to skew your perspective.

Excellent advice for the China fanbois on SDF- you know who you are.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Excellent advice for the China fanbois on SDF- you know who you are.

That's good advice for everybody but I see most of the violations coming from you. Half of the time it's because you're biased and have to pick from only unreliable sources that say what you wanna hear. The other half is because when it comes to military matters, you really don't know any better.

Don't I recall a previous conversation involving you where you kept posting junk regurgitated articles discussing the technologies of J-20 written by liberal arts majors and whatnot? People told you to stop and you declined, saying that all opinions and views from all authors are welcome?

 

[Blackstone]

That's good advice for everybody but I see most of the violations coming from you. Half of the time it's because you're biased and have to pick from only unreliable sources that say what you wanna hear. The other half is because when it comes to military matters, you really don't know any better.

Don't I recall a previous conversation involving you where you kept posting junk regurgitated articles discussing the technologies of J-20 written by liberal arts majors and whatnot? People told you to stop and you declined, saying that all opinions and views from all authors are welcome?

"Junk" and "liberal arts majors and whatnot?" Are they junk because they were written by people outside the defense circles? What makes them "junk?" Care to put your own words to the test?

The articles I listed questioning J-20's mightiness had sources from high-ranking US/Western officers and intelligence sources. Some readers objected to my posts and suggested US officials and agencies were less dependable on the J-20 than the Chinese Internet rumor mill. One poster said I shouldn't post them (the linked articles) at all. I disagree.

The test for you is see if you can be intellectually honest on making charges like "posting junk, liberal arts... yada yada." Unfortunately, it does mean you'll have to go back and read the entire thread to make an honest evaluation.