Chinese Economics Thread

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
It is amazing if one remember that university education only restarted in early 80's.but the government put the priority on education as befit China traditional respect for education
Now they reap the benefit of higher value added product . No more cheap sandal, cloth, pot and pan. Engineering still enjoy prestige in China. While in the west the best and brightest goes to Medicine, management (Wall Street) etc. The US maintain its leadership due to influx of Chinese and Indian talent. But now with restrictive immigration that avenue is closed and better opportunity at home more and more are coming home. It will erode their primacy with time sure there are talent from other continent. But roughly 18% or more in technical graduate study, Chinese student are not easy to replace
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Inside the world’s largest higher education boom
A record number of students will graduate from Chinese universities this year, but underemployment remains a thorn in the government's side

By
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APRIL 18, 2017 9:35 PM

A record-breaking
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will graduate from Chinese universities in 2017. This figure is nearly 10 times higher than it was in 1997 and is more than double the number of students who will graduate this year in the US.

Just two decades ago, higher education in China was a rare privilege enjoyed by a small, urban elite. But everything changed in 1999, when the government launched a program to massively expand university attendance. In that year alone university admissions increased by
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and this average annual growth rate persisted for the next 15 years, creating the largest influx of university educated workers into the labor market in history.


Growth in the number of
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has been particularly explosive as part of the government’s push to develop a technical workforce that can drive innovation
. But overall student numbers have increased in all subjects – even in the humanities and social sciences. New universities have sprung up and student enrolment has rocketed. The second most popular subject major is in fact
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.


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Underemployment
In 2013, citizens started blogging about the “
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” – and each year seems to get harder for Chinese graduates. In 2017, there will be a million more new graduates than there were in 2013. Yet the graduate unemployment rate has remained relatively stable – according to
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, only 8% of students who graduated in 2015 were unemployed six months after graduating.

But if you delve a little deeper it’s clear that unemployment rates mask the more subtle issue of “underemployment.” While most graduates eventually find work, too many end up in part-time, low-paid jobs.

image-20170320-9129-3km3bd.jpg

Graduation day. Xinxi Xu/flickr, CC BY
Six months after graduating, one in four Chinese university students have a salary that is below the average
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, according to MyCOS data.

History, law and literature have some of the lowest starting salaries, and also the lowest employment rates.

And for students who choose arts and humanities subjects in high school, the average starting salary after university is lower than that of their classmates who didn’t go to university, according to
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. Of the 50 most common graduate occupations, 30% are low-skilled and don’t require a degree. For these students, low starting salaries and limited career progression call into question the value of their degree.
The high cost of living, particularly in big cities, has also forced millions of graduates into “
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” of urban workers living in squalid conditions – often in basements – working long hours in low-paid jobs.

The big divide
But for a different group of graduates, the contrast is striking. Engineering, economics and science majors in China all enjoy high starting salaries and the top employment rates. These graduates fill the highest-paid entry positions in the most attractive employment sectors of IT, operations, real estate and finance. Chinese tech graduates do particularly well. In 2015 the
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were all IT related.
The government’s “
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” strategy to become a global high-tech leader in industries such as advanced IT and robotics has created plenty of opportunities for graduates in these fields.

image-20170320-9124-3fp9tu.png

Top highest paying graduate jobs.
Not only are the starting salaries high, but long-term earnings follow a starkly different trajectory. Three years after graduating,
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of engineering, economics and science graduates earn more than double the median salary for other graduates.

Wrong types of skills
Despite the rapid increase in the number of university graduates,
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of not being able to find the high-skilled graduates they need. The main deficit is in so-called “soft skills” such as strong communication, analytical and managerial skills. According to
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, there is a short supply of graduates with these assets.

Chinese universities have a great track record of teaching students “hard skills”, but the test-focused education system has placed little emphasis on the development of anything else. So while graduates from technical or quantitative majors find employment because they have the necessary “hard skills”, graduates from less technical majors are hampered by their lack of both types of skills.

Two types of graduates
It seems then that the problem is not the rising number of students attending university, but that there is a mismatch between the skill composition of graduates and the skills employers need.

Demand for graduates with technical or quantitative skills has in fact risen faster than supply, resulting in attractive employment opportunities for graduates with these skills.

But for the rest, their education leaves them badly prepared for the jobs that are available. Until this changes, the polarization in the graduate job market is likely to continue.
 
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Blackstone

Brigadier
Which specific reform(s) are you referring to as stalled?

My take from this and other articles is Chinese local investment (a portion of it stimulus based - we'll see what happens when that runs out) remains strong, Chinese Wages are growing and Chinese Consumer Spending continues to grow (part of the economic transition). Exports are also fairly strong and have not taken a dive as some expected, which is bonus for China. So far so good with US-China Trade Relations.

And while they continue to manage the housing and banking sectors, these are areas, especially housing, where Western Media has been predicting the epicenter of the doom of China's economy for a decade+ now. Still waiting.

And China increasing interest rates is clearly, as the article says, a good sign in tackling bank lending and fiscal security. I have no doubt the Chinese Government is aware of debt risk, having lived next door to Japan.
Here are two SCMP articles on China's economic reform problems, there are lots more on SCMP web site, and even more in sources like the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and The Economist.

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Blackstone

Brigadier
Just anecdotally, India changed its method of accruing GDP last year that added approx. 1 full percent to its annual GDP growth projections. I won't go into detail since it becomes OT and there are tons of articles about the legitimacy of it via Google. But these things happen. So long as they follow an international standard, can be verified and are backed up by other economic indicators like PPP and import consumption etc, that's fine.
India's GDP reporting doesn't directly affect China, plus lots of economists question accuracy of India's reporting too.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Tell that to Xi Jinping, who said publicly said some reforms have run into problems from "vested interests."
But is it detrimental to the overall economy? Meaning does the articles of doubts and dramas matches the reality for China's economic growth? I doubt it.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
But is it detrimental to the overall economy? Meaning does the articles of doubts and dramas matches the reality for China's economic growth? I doubt it.
Failed reforms in major sectors of the Chinese economic could lead to the "middle income trap" CCP leaders are working to avoid. So yes, China's reforms from a manufacturing/export-based economy to a service/consumption-based economy is the biggest single economic development on the planet.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Failed reforms in major sectors of the Chinese economic could lead to the "middle income trap" CCP leaders are working to avoid. So yes, China's reforms from a manufacturing/export-based economy to a service/consumption-based economy is the biggest single economic development on the planet.

And so far only the CPC have a track record of economic reform dating back to Deng Xiaoping era. China know's what she doing, all the other doubters, haters, and naysayers are just expressing their prejudice.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
And so far only the CPC have a track record of economic reform dating back to Deng Xiaoping era. China know's what she doing, all the other doubters, haters, and naysayers are just expressing their prejudice.
So, according to you Xi Jinping is a naysayer and prejudiced against China completing its reforms?

Stop being such a fanboi where you take every anti-theses as a personal affront. Like Sigmund Freud said, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and sometimes anti-theses points-of-view are just for discussions; SDF would be a boring echo chamber if we only see fanboi posts (like yours), not unlike the Beltway is an echo chamber for neocons.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Here are two SCMP articles on China's economic reform problems, there are lots more on SCMP web site, and even more in sources like the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and The Economist.

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Come on most oil company lost their shirt in 2016. To single out Sinopec loss due to slow market reform is just not the case
Exxxon,Chevron, Statoil, BP, Conoco Phillip They all suffer massive losses in 2016
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