Chinese Economics Thread

Blackstone

Brigadier
But it's in ALL factories, not just steel. I know you are trying very hard to down play this good news for China.
That's just not so, I welcome good economic news from China, especially about expansion of their middle class and successful reforms in their economy.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
That's just not so, I welcome good economic news from China, especially about expansion of their middle class and successful reforms in their economy.

In the coming years, we see that rising income will bring a couple hundred million people into the consumer class. And that is what makes China extremely important in the coming decade.

- Joshua Lu

Here you go champ.:cool::D

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Blackstone

Brigadier
Belt and Road Initiative is rolling along.

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The power and potential of the Belt and Road — aka the New Silk Road — lies in its versatility. This emerging network of revitalized transportation routes and new trading hubs which stretch between China and Europe finds efficiency, security, and
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in the fact that it is not a single route but a network of multiple, interconnected trans-Eurasian corridors. Like in the days of the ancient Silk Road, if one corridor goes down due to a change in government, war, an economic upheaval, or a spat over tariffs, cargo can simply be shipped to similar destinations via alternative routes — like a river flowing around a boulder.

Eurasia, the continental landmass that contains both Europe and Asia, is rapidly being
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covering upwards of 65% of the population, 75% of energy resources, and 40% of GDP in the world, and it is
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that are the strings tying it all together.

There are currently three operational rail corridors that physically connect China and Europe. The northern one goes mainly through Russia, and for the most part follows the route of the Trans-Siberian Express. The central route goes all the way across Kazakhstan before linking into the northern route in the west of Russia. While the southern route
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and either crosses the Caspian Sea by ferry or goes around to Iran before going through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. Along each corridor the transport time is in the ballpark of 10.5 to 16 days.

While the north and central overland routes of the New Silk Road
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, the southern one is just now becoming established. While the more developed routes efficiently link together just three large customs zones — China, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the EU — amounting to just two “border” crossings along the 9,000+ kilometer journey, the southern route is a little more complicated.
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, the line then enters separate customs regimes in Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, before connecting into the European rail network.

Ironically, a couple of marked political and economic conflicts have actually led to increased development of this southern corridor.

“This route came about to go around Russia,” Martin Voetmann, who currently works for DP World at the Aktau seaport, spoke bluntly.

The EU leveling sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine conflict sparked a
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. Not only are European products like meat, produce, and cheese prohibited from being imported into Russia but they are not even allowed to be transported to third party countries across Russian terrain.

“The big problem that we face is that there are still sanctions in Russia to move perishables over from Europe to China or Europe to Kazakhstan through Russia. That's the bottleneck at the moment,” said Jan Koolen from Unit 45 — a company that manufactures
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which allow sensitive electronics and perishables to be shipped overland between China and Europe year round. “But now they are also looking at another corridor, which is Baku-Aktau, the southern route.”

The main advantage of going around Russia is that manufacturers and freight forwarders can sidestep the country's reactionary sanctions and get their goods to their desired markets unimpeded. Up to now, the Russian embargo has severely hamstrung Europe’s ability to fully leverage the newly established trans-Eurasian rail network, as the type of products that its producers would otherwise ship overland to China largely happen to be the same ones that Russia prohibits. The trans-Caspian route provides a workaround to this trade blockade, and the corridor is starting to gain momentum the more Europe seeks to fill the backload of rail cargo to China.

“You have the return factor,” Voetmann began. “You end up with your containers and your platforms in Europe, now what do you do with them?”

It’s logistics 101: a closed circuit where containers are transported full of goods on both outbound and return journeys is optimal. The China to Europe side has been activated -- nearly 2,000 trains have now cross Eurasia going west. Now the intrigue is to fill the capacity for the return trips to China, presenting Europe with a new way to access the booming Chinese middle class in the process.

Major initiatives, like the commissioning of
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last week, the creation of New Silk Way Logistics,
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, and the Kazakh multimodal company KTZ Express setting up operations in Europe, show that accessing China by rail is becoming increasingly attractive to Western companies.

Voetmann is currently busy at work coming up with solutions to establish the port of Aktau
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.

“So potentially you can find a fast and fairly cheap [option] for the return cargo coming from Europe and into China,” he said. "It's fairly fast and maybe we will be able to do it in a cheaper way, so it opens up a whole new range of possibilities once you have this route established.”

However, the southern rail corridor is currently only running on an as needed basis. There is not yet a regular service, but this is set to change.

“As demand for the services on the Southern rail corridor continues to grow, the authorities in Lianyungang and Chengdu are looking to introduce scheduled services into Istanbul in the coming months. Once in place, these scheduled services will enable greater flow of goods along the corridor and spur China-Europe trade,” said Steve Huang, the CEO of China operations for DHL, the German freight forwarding giant who is
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.

Pushing forward regular service on the southern rail corridor is the soon to be launched
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, which will directly link the port of Baku in Azerbaijan with Turkey.

“The Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway is expected to be completed in 2017. Once its operational, transportation from China to Turkey will be faster and more cost effective,” Huang continued.

The power of China’s Belt and Road initiative and the broader New Silk Road is found in the fact that a diverse and interconnected network is being created — a supercharged economic grid that is being superimposed over the whole of Eurasia — not a single route that any singe political or economic entity can fully control.

Or, as my seven year old daughter once put it:

“You just said that there are many roads, daddy, that means you have to call it the New Silk Roads.”
 

advill

Junior Member
Why is there some doubts about China's recent growth announcements? Just wait and observe China's economic progress. I know that the Chinese have very good business minds like the Jews (many in America & in UK, EU, & also the Israelis), They all know what to do to go forward for themselves and the countries they live in - hey! its all business man, & they don't normally propagate "fake news".
 

Zool

Junior Member
Even PRC media say reforms have stalled, and I'm beginning to doubt the CCP's resolution and/or ability to implement them. Therefore, I suspect we'll see the same headline next year and maybe the following year too.

Which specific reform(s) are you referring to as stalled?

My take from this and other articles is Chinese local investment (a portion of it stimulus based - we'll see what happens when that runs out) remains strong, Chinese Wages are growing and Chinese Consumer Spending continues to grow (part of the economic transition). Exports are also fairly strong and have not taken a dive as some expected, which is bonus for China. So far so good with US-China Trade Relations.

And while they continue to manage the housing and banking sectors, these are areas, especially housing, where Western Media has been predicting the epicenter of the doom of China's economy for a decade+ now. Still waiting.

And China increasing interest rates is clearly, as the article says, a good sign in tackling bank lending and fiscal security. I have no doubt the Chinese Government is aware of debt risk, having lived next door to Japan.
 

Zool

Junior Member
If there weren't benefits to the PRC, then its officials wouldn't have made the change. My take is CCP made the change for both domestic and international gains, and their motives had little to do with the so-called naysayers.

Just anecdotally, India changed its method of accruing GDP last year that added approx. 1 full percent to its annual GDP growth projections. I won't go into detail since it becomes OT and there are tons of articles about the legitimacy of it via Google. But these things happen. So long as they follow an international standard, can be verified and are backed up by other economic indicators like PPP and import consumption etc, that's fine.
 

A.Man

Major
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China's 'Best And Brightest' Leaving U.S. Universities And Returning Home

Chinese college students studying in the U.S. are finding it just as interesting these days to return home to the world's No. 2 economy rather than staying a few years in the world's No. 1.

Some 82.23% of students who studied abroad returned to China last year, up from 72.38% in 2012, according to government figures.

China's 21st Century Education Research Institute said foreign countries’ job markets could not accommodate the surge in Chinese students. It wasn't just Chinese studying in their preferred country -- the United States -- but also included students that were studying in New Zealand and Australia as well. National Institute of Education Sciences researcher Chu Chaohui said returning students had more resources and better networks in China to find a job, while Chinese students in the U.S. were dependent on 20,000 H1-B visas for tens of thousands of students, not only from China, and the majority of them working in computer sciences.

Most wealthy Chinese that buy real estate in the U.S. are buying properties for their children to live in during their college years. In fact, college is the number one driver of Chinese real estate sales here. But as this market gets more saturated, and as China's economy becomes more entrepreneurial, students are finding the market to be just as welcoming to them there. Having a U.S. diploma helps.

China students are leading recipients of H1-B student visas, but still pale in comparison to Indian students who tend to be swept up by the big Indian outsourcers like Infosys upon graduation. Under the visa, foreign students are allowed to stay in the country for three years. The visa is renewable for another three.

President Donald Trump has said that he wants the U.S. immigration policy to focus on the "best and the brightest". To some degree, that is the H1-B visa program which is also designed to keep foreign college students in the U.S. economy, primarily in the high-tech fields.

China accounts for less than 12% of all H1-B visas, according to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Service.

Most of the move home is due to the difficulty of finding work abroad, and a better market for private sector jobs in China, according to a number of students.

Top 10 U.S. Colleges Admitting Chinese Students

1. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

2. University of Southern California

3. Purdue

4. Northeastern

5. Columbia

6. Michigan State

7. Ohio State

8. University of California at Los Angeles

9. Indiana University

10. University of California at Berkeley

Source:
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using U.S. Department of Homeland Security data. Enrollment figures are based on the F-1 student visa.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
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China's 'Best And Brightest' Leaving U.S. Universities And Returning Home

Chinese college students studying in the U.S. are finding it just as interesting these days to return home to the world's No. 2 economy rather than staying a few years in the world's No. 1.

Some 82.23% of students who studied abroad returned to China last year, up from 72.38% in 2012, according to government figures.

China's 21st Century Education Research Institute said foreign countries’ job markets could not accommodate the surge in Chinese students. It wasn't just Chinese studying in their preferred country -- the United States -- but also included students that were studying in New Zealand and Australia as well. National Institute of Education Sciences researcher Chu Chaohui said returning students had more resources and better networks in China to find a job, while Chinese students in the U.S. were dependent on 20,000 H1-B visas for tens of thousands of students, not only from China, and the majority of them working in computer sciences.

Most wealthy Chinese that buy real estate in the U.S. are buying properties for their children to live in during their college years. In fact, college is the number one driver of Chinese real estate sales here. But as this market gets more saturated, and as China's economy becomes more entrepreneurial, students are finding the market to be just as welcoming to them there. Having a U.S. diploma helps.

China students are leading recipients of H1-B student visas, but still pale in comparison to Indian students who tend to be swept up by the big Indian outsourcers like Infosys upon graduation. Under the visa, foreign students are allowed to stay in the country for three years. The visa is renewable for another three.

President Donald Trump has said that he wants the U.S. immigration policy to focus on the "best and the brightest". To some degree, that is the H1-B visa program which is also designed to keep foreign college students in the U.S. economy, primarily in the high-tech fields.

China accounts for less than 12% of all H1-B visas, according to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Service.

Most of the move home is due to the difficulty of finding work abroad, and a better market for private sector jobs in China, according to a number of students.

Top 10 U.S. Colleges Admitting Chinese Students

1. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

2. University of Southern California

3. Purdue

4. Northeastern

5. Columbia

6. Michigan State

7. Ohio State

8. University of California at Los Angeles

9. Indiana University

10. University of California at Berkeley

Source:
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using U.S. Department of Homeland Security data. Enrollment figures are based on the F-1 student visa.

I'm surprised that the University of Texas in Austin or University of Houston is not on the list of top 10?o_O
 

vesicles

Colonel
I'm surprised that the University of Texas in Austin or University of Houston is not on the list of top 10?o_O

Universities in Texas admit far less foreign students than other states, like CA and NY.

One driving factor is that they get plenty funding from the state and don't need the extra income from out-of-state tuitions typically paid by foreign students. Many universities in states with financial issues like CA depend heavily on those out-of-state tuitions. Since more and more Chinese can afford and are willing to pay such high tuitions (up to $50,000-60,000 annually), they become major targets for international admission.

Some states even stopped giving funding to their universities. I've heard Colorado is one of them, but not sure how authentic the info is though...
 
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