Chinese Economics Thread

[manqiangrexue]

I think that we're all forgetting something here and that's that in the US, the president does not have absolute power. When the president tries to go crazy horse on everybody and impose 1,000% tariff or preemptive war on Russia, congress and house will shut him down. There will be massive infighting between those who want to hard-line foreign competitors and those who want to do business and earn money for themselves; American policy could very well stagnate if Trump attempts to follow through with his plans though it is the latter group that has the most money/influence and would probably ultimately win out.

 

[Equation]

I like emphasize US has excluded China high valued goods into the countries. No ZTE, Huawei telecom equipments can be used in US market. No Chinese cars or planes allowed in US market , now or future. even those Lenovo Laptop, computer stuffs, all major components are Non-Chinese. No high end refrigerators in US market exept maybe cheapy wine cooler. Even Mexicans are bypassing cheapy Chinese LCD TV panels in walmart.

The only dominant Chinese products in US market is Shoes and Toys.

Yes, politicians are talking about 500 Billion surplus but they all come from low ended products.

I don't see a future where China high valued goods can come to US that will propell China to high income developed countries. It won't happen. US won't allow that.

China has maxed out already in trade with US with mostly low valued goods.

Satellites and quantum communications. China is way ahead of the US to ignore that high end tech if they want to maintain a certain level to keep their business running.

 

[Equation]

Not really. China is not there yet in the most important areas.. I give you some figures.

China has to import alot of semiconductor components and equipments. Right now it's only 15% self sufficient. They working on it to expand . Need another 5 yrs to 10 yrs to be 70% self sufficient in those areas. They can't do it fast now because way too many foreign suppliers(US, taiwan, South Korea, Japan) dominated the market.
QUOTE]

So those foreign suppliers in regards to semiconductors would be hurt a lot if China decided to shut it down and take a little hit for awhile before those so called US allies in Asia (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan) will start screaming "lets talk shall we, the hell with Uncle Sam" because they are mostly an export economy with not enough domestic population to build a giant market of their own. YES, size does matter.

 

[tidalwave]

Satellites and quantum communications. China is way ahead of the US to ignore that high end tech if they want to maintain a certain level to keep their business running.

How much money are in that field? Not much.

 

[tidalwave]

I think that we're all forgetting something here and that's that in the US, the president does not have absolute power. When the president tries to go crazy horse on everybody and impose 1,000% tariff or preemptive war on Russia, congress and house will shut him down. There will be massive infighting between those who want to hard-line foreign competitors and those who want to do business and earn money for themselves; American policy could very well stagnate if Trump attempts to follow through with his plans though it is the latter group that has the most money/influence and would probably ultimately win out.

You should look at history a bit more. Trump is patterning his move after Reagan.

When Reagan became president, he slapped 100% tariff on Japanese TVs, laptops, computers, electronics and semiconductor chips to retaliate for Japan's failure to allow more American products into its markets and to halt the underpriced "dumping" of Japanese semiconductor computer chips in other nations.

"The health and vitality of the U.S. semiconductor industry are essential to America's future competitiveness. We cannot allow it to be jeopardized by unfair trading practices," Reagan said in a written statement.

What Trump is saying now exactly mirrors what Reagan said before.
So, that precedence is there. I believe Trump will carry out 45% Tariff. Alot of people think Trump is just bluffing. I don't think so!

 

[tidalwave]

Once China and US trade war started. China should ditch Japan and South Korea and cutting the ties. I think banning of airflights to/from those two countries, preventing Chinese citizens from wasting money on their meaningless purchase.

China has nothing to gain from two. and yet, Japanese cars, machinery parts and Korean semiconductors/phones are all over China. In turn, from economic gains, those two buy US weapons to counter China. Culturally, those two , always holding disdain and contempt for China anyway. Cutting ties with them will really simplify things. China can get technology source and inspiration from Germany, who's alot more open minded in terms sharing technology. In Japanese and Korean culture, sharing technology to another culture is a taboo, a big No-No. So, long terms, China can get nothing out of those two. Better to severe the ties.

 

[Franklin]

I don't need to look at track record. Trump is one of kind.
Alot of Americans willing to look past Trump character and moral issues. Why? They need to get some one crazy enough to do the "dirty work" or turn over everything.
NAFTA, WTO... everything.

The entire Asia is going to go down in smoke.

My friend, not even God can break up the WTO, NATO and NAFTA.

 

[manqiangrexue]

You should look at history a bit more. Trump is patterning his move after Reagan.

When Reagan became president, he slapped 100% tariff on Japanese TVs, laptops, computers, electronics and semiconductor chips to retaliate for Japan's failure to allow more American products into its markets and to halt the underpriced "dumping" of Japanese semiconductor computer chips in other nations.

"The health and vitality of the U.S. semiconductor industry are essential to America's future competitiveness. We cannot allow it to be jeopardized by unfair trading practices," Reagan said in a written statement.

What Trump is saying now exactly mirrors what Reagan said before.
So, that precedence is there. I believe Trump will carry out 45% Tariff. Alot of people think Trump is just bluffing. I don't think so!

When people told you to look at the precedent of American presidents failing to carry out their election promises, you told them that there is no precedent because Trump is one of a kind. Now, you tell me to look at Reagan as a precedent for Trump? Reagan was not a business tycoon like Trump; Reagan's election was the biggest blow out in American history, not the most controversial like Trump. America's economy at the time of Reagan was comprised far less by trade than today's American economy.

What I said was completely aside; even if Trump gets elected (big IF; it looks like Hillary is gonna take it at this point), AND decides to carry out his 45% tariff (another big IF; he's a businessman and his businesses eat up Chinese imports for profit), there are many legal mechanisms in American law and many business incentives to use those mechanisms, to stop him.

 

[solarz]

he's a businessman and his businesses eat up Chinese imports for profit

Exactly. Trump, even if he wins, will only be President for 4 years, 8 max. What maintains his lifestyle are his businesses, which will go belly up if said tariffs were implemented.

 

[SamuraiBlue]

You people had been on it for a long time but tell me, what does the US presidential election namely Republican nominee Mr.Trump have anything to do with PRC economy?