Chinese Economics Thread

[Skywatcher]

Has Navarro even talked to Trump yet? The good professor admitted back in August that he hadn't talked to Mr. Trump yet.

 

[Equation]

At this point, Trump is adopting Zero Sum economic policy proposed by economic professor like peter navarro. It's a Beggar thy Neighbor Policy. They know it will affect US itself negatively but they figure it's going to hurt China more. By hurting China, US can stay at the top longer. Cut down China economically is Obama policy too. It's Not business as usual as his previous admins. That's the common theme. Obama admin has launched the most WTO complaints , and anti-dumping tariffs against China more than any previous admin. Bar None. I wouldn't be surprise if next president will try to do more .

From China perspective, it should prepare for the heavy tariff and look at it as an opportunity.
Becoming more Indegenious innovative,

China had to support alot of US allies like japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, and Taiwan and it's becomiing a burden. Trump initiated tariffs will make China ditch those countries economically above. And refocus toward one belt one road with countires westward.

Meaning it's a desperation policy, therefore Trump, Obama, or anyone else had ran out of ideas to maintain on top even by cutting down China economically. China has already becoming more in indigenously innovative in many aspects of electronic, space, 3D production, satellites, medical, pharmaceutical, new energy, not to mention quantum researches, etc. China is in far better position than the US because it has NO government debt (US has $19 Trillion and counting) and it has a surplus of money (currency reserves in both dollars and Euros in the Trillions) to deal with anything so called Tariff. Heck China could just close it's market completely for a few days and watch the Stock Market falls faster than any US President could say "ok let's talk".

 

[tidalwave]

Meaning it's a desperation policy, therefore Trump, Obama, or anyone else had ran out of ideas to maintain on top even by cutting down China economically. China has already becoming more in indigenously innovative in many aspects of electronic, space, 3D production, satellites, medical, pharmaceutical, new energy, not to mention quantum researches, etc. China is in far better position than the US because it has NO government debt (US has $19 Trillion and counting) and it has a surplus of money (currency reserves in both dollars and Euros in the Trillions) to deal with anything so called Tariff. Heck China could just close it's market completely for a few days and watch the Stock Market falls faster than any US President could say "ok let's talk".

Not really. China is not there yet in the most important areas.. I give you some figures.

China has to import alot of semiconductor components and equipments. Right now it's only 15% self sufficient. They working on it to expand . Need another 5 yrs to 10 yrs to be 70% self sufficient in those areas. They can't do it fast now because way too many foreign suppliers(US, taiwan, South Korea, Japan) dominated the market.

Their domestic airliners are not ready yet.Only the beginning. They need to crank in the hundreds or thousands domestic airlines to be a real factor.

There's always 2 sides to a coin. I think only in real close, protectionist environment can China be self sufficient at 80% level.

Well, look at Chinese military and space advancement. We all awared mainly because US and Western Arms and Space exclusion leads to China 's flourishing military development. People can say Liaoning and 001A are so old style compared to US Ford Class Carrier, it's useless. Not really!

By mastering all its own technology, China can control its own fate.

So, don't be scared of Trump 45% tariff or assume it won't happen. Embrace it as an opportunity.
Not only it will prompt China more self development but also weaken severely US alliance in the Pacific. If both US and China become protectionists. US allies like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Autralia, Singapore will stuck in No-man's land. They will suffer more. Pax Americana will come to close.

China's GDP is about $11 Trillion now and is close to approaching $13 Trillion GDP, that 's hallmark of entry level developed country. $10K yearly GDP per capita. Then China can develope everything on its own doesn't need to do trade that much. Except for oil of course.

Without big trade of high valued goods,(I don't think Western world would allow major China high valued goods into their countries ever!) China won't reach high income status but fast approaching entry level developed status is good enough for China.

 

[vincent]

I don't think this article is indictment for the communist system in China . If anything it celebrate the individual initiative of few individual of course with the help of western NGO

I have no doubt that CCP has lifted million people out of poverty. But using their threshold of $1.50/day there are 40 million of people bellow it and if you use $3/day probably double that.

I understand it will take a long time to eradicate poverty, but that is a lot of people fall between the crack. Specially the migrant worker who is the unsung hero of China miracle but they benefit the least of the bounty. Because of vested interest of the town people in refusing to dismantle the much hated and most unfair system of Hukou. This problem is recognized in China. I watch CCTV regularly

I have been to a migrant kid elementary school in Shanghai when I volunteered for the Junior Achievement program. The school is exactly the same as the one I went to in the 80's, which is piss-poor compare to the schools for city folks nowadays (no computer, cracking walls, shitty desk and chairs, etc). The government really need to fix the Hukou system to make education more equal for all.

 

[tidalwave]

I like emphasize US has excluded China high valued goods into the countries. No ZTE, Huawei telecom equipments can be used in US market. No Chinese cars or planes allowed in US market , now or future. even those Lenovo Laptop, computer stuffs, all major components are Non-Chinese. No high end refrigerators in US market exept maybe cheapy wine cooler. Even Mexicans are bypassing cheapy Chinese LCD TV panels in walmart.

The only dominant Chinese products in US market is Shoes and Toys.

Yes, politicians are talking about 500 Billion surplus but they all come from low ended products.

I don't see a future where China high valued goods can come to US that will propell China to high income developed countries. It won't happen. US won't allow that.

China has maxed out already in trade with US with mostly low valued goods.

 

[Jura The idiot]

it was on a major Czech server today (

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), that's how I noticed (dated October 11, 2016) Yinchuan: The smart city where your face is your credit card

Like most people, I'd never heard of Yinchuan before going there.
But the Chinese officials showing me around are eager to present the capital of Ningxia province, in the north of China, as a technical marvel.
And I should pay attention: Yinchuan is intended to serve as the blueprint "smart city" for scores of urban metropolises across China.
It also raises some serious questions about data privacy.

When your face pays
In Yinchuan, your face is your credit card.
On the local buses, facial recognition software has replaced the fare box. Much like a fingerprint can unlock a smartphone, passengers' faces are linked to their bank accounts, meaning boarding isn't slowed by people fishing for exact change.

Public trash bins that run on solar power and double as compactors, allowing them to increase their capacity five-fold, are being trialed within the city's Smart Community Project -- an occupied "living lab" which acts as a mini-city within the city. The bins send out a signal when they're full, so garbage collectors know when to empty them.
Grocery shopping is also, potentially, a thing of the past. Residents can order food via an app on their phone and, rather than wait at home for perishables to turn up, they can pick up their shopping at centrally located refrigerated smart lockers.

Hologram hellos
At the City Hall, holograms -- not people -- usher in residents. A smattering of QR codes dot the walls, allowing people to get quick answers to frequently asked questions and avoid waiting in line. At a recent Yinchuan job fair, for example, job seekers scanned the codes to get quick information about job openings.

Holograms welcome visitors to the City Hall in Yinchaun,.
Every interaction a citizen might have with the government -- from getting a business license to renewing a passport -- takes place here. Many processes that once required face-to-face meetings have been efficiently moved online.
That ethos applies to healthcare, too.
Haodaifu Online is an internet portal that links doctors with patients, providing the latter with remote therapy and prescriptions. The service reduces overcrowding in hospitals and doctors' surgeries.

Smart China
Yinchuan's is one of

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in China.
As the central government tries

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of its citizens from rural areas into towns and cities by 2050, it is determined to make its urban areas efficient and equipped with the technology to handle such a vast population influx.

To cement its status as a "smart city" leader, Yinchuan has for two years hosted the

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, which this year attracted 1,000 delegates from 66 different countries.
A smart city is defined as an urban settlement which marries big data, technology and urban planning, and hints at a future worthy of the Jetsons.
"What makes China special is that they're looking to create a repeatable pattern as to how to build and create and roll out a smart city," says Carl Piva, vice president of strategic programs at TM Forum, which organized this conference.
"In the West, we world don't have that sense of 'rolling out' like they tend to do."

Why Yinchuan?
At first glance, Yinchuan may not seem the most obvious choice to be a "smart city" leader.
Its population of 1.5 million pales compared to that of Beijing (13 million) and Shanghai (24 million).
Wouldn't it make more sense to start by making smart already developed cities, where citizens are more likely to benefit and participate?
Piva says not.
"The problem is these cities are already too big," he says.
A blank canvas like Yinchuan can more flexibly adopt new technologies, and then "attract people that would otherwise have gone to Beijing or Shanghai."

The city's grand ambitions are evident in the dozens of shiny -- but empty -- tower blocks that line the streets.
"They're empty because they're planned for new citizens. They are thinking they can organize the technology first, and then move in some citizens, and they will have the city prepared," says

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, a lecturer and senior policy adviser at the University of Oxford Program for the Future of Cities, who also spoke at the conference.
He's not convinced by that approach.
"They're operating with this assumption that all cities should be built from scratch, that you can create this new city and everything is going to work perfectly well from the first day. Cities don't work like that," Calzada tells CNN.
"What they'll see in five years time is how the citizens' behavior and technology should be connected, and it's not that easy."

Data: Boon or curse?
So much of Yinchuan's potential comes down to data -- information gathered about each citizen can make their lives better, is the core philosophy.
Take, for example, the city's healthcare system.
Peter Sany, president of TM Forum, imagines a world where sensors can, for example, monitor the insulin level on a diabetic patient, and send an alarm if he goes into diabetic shock. Or perhaps a motion detector can determine when an elderly patient suffers a fall and, in turn, alert an emergency response team.

"Look at the economics of it," says Sany. "The population is getting older, and when you get older, you get sicker. We're running out of money because of the healthcare system, but this type of technology will reduce that burden on society."
Though Yinchuan's healthcare isn't there yet, that's the direction it wants to go in.

"Smart cities provide a solution to many inevitable problems of urbanization," says Baichun. "It was designed for the people, it will work for the people and it will bring benefit to the people."
But Calzada, for one, is uneasy how so much personal data could be used by the Chinese government.
"Which data is being used? What will it be used for? I don't know, I'm clueless, and nobody seems interested in going deep into those questions," he says.
"Some cities seem interested in thinking about the transparency of that data, some are not. Yinchuan is quite new, but no one seems interested in knowing more about how that data will be governed."

source:

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[tidalwave]

Shenzhen Underground Banks Number 1 Source of Money outflow illegally outflow out of the country Via HongKong Connection. This has caused major turbulence in China Market.
China needs to shut this down on both sides of Shenzhen and Hongkong.
====================================================================


Oct 11 Police in China's southern province of Guangdong have busted underground banks that handled 230 billion yuan ($34.49 billion) in illegal money transfers this year, state news agency Xinhua reported on Tuesday.

Police arrested 350 people suspected to be involved in 140 cases of underground banking and money laundering, Xinhua said, citing the Guangdong provincial public security department.

Illegal banking has been rampant in some parts of the province such as the capital Shenzhen, where an underground bank that handled 30 billion yuan in transactions was busted in August.

The story also cited a bust by Shenzhen police this month, where 10 suspects illegally moved 48 billion yuan ($7.20 billion) out of the mainland from 2014-2015 by establishing fake trading companies in Shenzhen and neighbouring Hong Kong.

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[tidalwave]

HongKong has turned into a complete Disaster for Mainland.
1)The independence movement
2)Number 1 in illegal wealth transfer of wealth oversea from Mainland via Shenzhen.

 

[AssassinsMace]

At this point, Trump is adopting Zero Sum economic policy proposed by economic professor like peter navarro. It's a Beggar thy Neighbor Policy. They know it will affect US itself negatively but they figure it's going to hurt China more. By hurting China, US can stay at the top longer. Cut down China economically is Obama policy too. It's Not business as usual as his previous admins. That's the common theme. Obama admin has launched the most WTO complaints , and anti-dumping tariffs against China more than any previous admin. Bar None. I wouldn't be surprise if next president will try to do more .

From China perspective, it should prepare for the heavy tariff and look at it as an opportunity.
Becoming more Indegenious innovative,

China had to support alot of US allies like japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, and Taiwan and it's becomiing a burden. Trump initiated tariffs will make China ditch those countries economically above. And refocus toward one belt one road with countires westward.

Interesting but it still hurts the US. It is not immune like Trump thinks.

 

[AssassinsMace]

If China operated by how Americans think, it would've collapse long ago. Americans believe no one can do anything without them. That's what US China policy has been about. The US 's attempt to isolate Chinese hi-tech only cushions the economy from their troubles. No sales in the US means no effect from US economic downturns. The US is only around 20% of China's exports and most of that comes from foreign corporations exporting their products that they outsourced not China's to the US. So how does Trump think he can hurt China? A 45% tariff that that Americans pay not China for an outsourced product they don't profit from? How many actually Chinese companies sell their products in the US? Not many. Meaning little effect on China's economy. How about the many US allies that also outsource to China? Their costs for their products go up because they too get slapped a 45% tariff when they get shipped to the US from China. You think US allies who make up most of the US's market competitors are going to like that? The disruption that causes alone will send Western stock markets crashing. The US's allies/ competitors want to sell their products to China. So who do you think they'll choose when Trump is anti-global trade? How does Trump think that's good for the US? Again based off the lie he believes that the US needs no one.

The US's China policy has only isolated China's economy from feeling any of their troubles. And on top of that has spurred domestic technological innovation and development.