Chinese Economics Thread

Equation

Lieutenant General
Uh oh seems like that PCA SCS arbitration had gotten many Chinese in a patriotic mood to boycott some American companies. Now imagine if it were a full blown conflict (not war)...oohh the Dow Jones stock market horror!:p

[QUOTE
KFC, Apple in China hit by South China Sea spat

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July 20, 2016


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In this photo taken on Tuesday, July 19, 2016 and released by Guo Lu, policemen stand watch Chinese people carrying national flags hold a protest outside a KFC restaurant outlet in Baoying county in east China's Jiangsu province. In an apparent attempt to head off large-scale street demonstrations, Chinese state newspapers have criticized scattered protests against KFC restaurants and other U.S. targets sparked by an international tribunal's ruling that denied Beijing's claim to virtually the entire South China Sea. (Guo Lu via AP)
BEIJING (AP) — To the challenges facing KFC and Apple in China, add a surprise backlash from Beijing's spat with the Philippines over the South China Sea.

Nationalists are protesting at KFC outlets and calling for a boycott, spurred by government accusations that Washington encouraged Manila to oppose Beijing's claims to vast tracts of ocean.

Photos circulated online show young Chinese wearing scarves with patriotic slogans smashing Apple iPhones in protest.

State media have fanned public anger with a torrent of criticism of last week's ruling by a U.N. tribunal, which found no legal basis for Beijing's claim to most of the South China Sea.

"The Chinese public, as optimistic and positive as they are, are deeply patriotic and nationalistic, especially people who are younger," said James Roy of the research firm China Market Research Group. KFC and Apple "are just very closely associated with the United States, and you are seeing people picking the closest symbol they can think of to demonstrate against."

The protests are a reminder of the political risks for global brands in China, where they regularly become targets of nationalist sentiment, often stirred up by official media.

In 2012, sales of Japanese autos plunged when Tokyo and Beijing were in a dispute over control of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea.

The Chinese leadership has tried to tamp down this week's protests with demands in state media to leave foreign companies and their customers alone.

"This is not the right way to express patriotism," said the government's Xinhua News Agency. The China Daily newspaper called the protests "jingoism that does a disservice to the spirit of devotion to the nation."

Three protesters in the central city of Puyang in Henan province were detained by police on charges they illegally disrupted business at two KFC outlets, according to a news report. The web portal Sina said one was ordered jailed for 15 days and the other two for 13 days.

Some KFC customers have responded by posting photos of themselves online with a bucket of chicken, axes or other weapons and signs reading, "patriotic hooligans, try harassing me and I'll take you out."

KFC's owner, Yum Brands Inc., declined to comment.

A man in the eastern city of Yangzhou, northwest of Shanghai, said he watched a protest Tuesday morning after seeing a note online appealing to people to take part. He said it also told protesters to boycott Japanese and Korean goods.

"A group of more than 20 people including children broke into the restaurant and shouted at customers to leave," the witness, Guo Lu, said by phone from Yangzhou. He said police arrived quickly and pushed the protesters out of the restaurant.

The timing is unusually bad for KFC, which is China's biggest restaurant chain with more than 5,000 outlets but is overhauling its struggling business after a food scandal and marketing missteps.

Yum Brands is preparing to spin off its China unit, which also includes Pizza Hut restaurants, as a separate company in October in hopes of improving its performance.

KFC has long been an all-purpose target for protests about U.S. issues, especially in areas outside big cities with few other foreign symbols. In 1999, after NATO jets bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, protesters wrecked KFC restaurants.

The company and other foreign chain restaurants in China also face an upheaval as customers migrate to fast-growing local competitors they say offer more nutritious meals.

For its part, Apple has faced a series of legal hurdles this year in China, its second-biggest market.

In April, it suspended its iBooks and iTunes Movies services, reportedly due to an order by Chinese regulators.

The next month, an intellectual property tribunal ordered Apple to stop selling its iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus in Beijing after finding they look too much like a model made by a small Chinese brand. Apple was allowed to continue sales while it appeals.

Also in May, a court ruled a Chinese company is allowed to use the iPhone trademark on bags, wallets and other leather goods.

An Apple spokeswoman responded to a request for comment by pointing to CEO Tim Cook's positive comments in April about the company's future in China. Cook said Apple was "really optimistic" and planned to open five more stores in China during the current quarter for a total of 40.

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solarz

Brigadier
Sorry. wrong link. This is the correct one.

Two important non-official PMI indicators have been discontinued in china. I wonder why.

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Maybe because they no longer accurately reflect the state of China's economy as it transitions from manufacturing into service?

It's like that electricity consumption index that Li Keqiang used. It's fine when the nature of economic activities was largely the same year over year, but once we start improving efficiency instead of just adding capacity, and once we start doing different things, then electricity consumption is no longer reliable.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
There's an old Chinese saying about 'if you want wealth, first build roads,' and HSR is a good example of it. That's why I disagreed with Dr. Pettis' take on HSR as white elephant projects, because the benefits to the Chinese economy and society are wider than pure profit and loss on individual HSR lines. On the other hand, a single line turning profitable doesn't refute his white elephant theory and we need more facts to test his claim. Time will tell.

Even with the construction binge of the past decade, the Chinese railway network is still the most intensively used (passenger+freight) rail network in the world. A number of sections on the HSR have already reached capacity.

Plus Chinese wealth and income levels are showing healthy growth as China is still developing.

So as time goes on, we can expect most (if not all) of the current lines to become profitable and pay off their construction debts.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
BEIJING - A state-owned high-speed rail operator between Beijing and Shanghai reported net profits of 6.58 billion yuan (US$982 million) for 2015, a shareholder document showed.

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co. has never disclosed its earnings before. Its 2015 figures were made public after a shareholder released a document on Monday, revealing the firm's profit data.

A bond prospectus released by Tianjin Railway Construction Co., a shareholder of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., showed that the total assets of the company amounted 181.54 billion yuan at the end of last year, with the total liabilities standing at 50.37 billion yuan.

In 2015, the gross revenue of the company was 23.42 billion yuan, and its total operating costs hit 16.74 billion yuan.

Known as the "the world's most profitable high-speed rail," the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway covers more than 1,300 km within five hours.

It transported 130 million passengers in 2015, with the profit per customer coming to around 50 yuan.

Although the railway authority has said that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway was the only profitable high-speed rail in China in the past five years, some believe that other lines in densely-populated and developed regions will likely become profitable soon.

High-speed train services are popular in China thanks to convenience and punctuality. More lines are being constructed as the government tries to bolster the economy with infrastructure investment and make travel more convenient.

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Construction was supposed to cost 220 billion RMB. EDIT Actual number is 208.8 billion yuan.

Plus remember that the new HSR lines allow more freight trains to be run on the older slower parallel tracks, which also generates more profits.

EDIT. At the rate passenger numbers are increasing, they'll have to build a second Beijing-Shanghai HSR line in 5 years time... And it would make sense for it to be a 1300km long Maglev which could do the trip in less than 3 hours
 
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solarz

Brigadier
Even with the construction binge of the past decade, the Chinese railway network is still the most intensively used (passenger+freight) rail network in the world. A number of sections on the HSR have already reached capacity.

Plus Chinese wealth and income levels are showing healthy growth as China is still developing.

So as time goes on, we can expect most (if not all) of the current lines to become profitable and pay off their construction debts.

The Chinese population is far more mobile than the American population, owing to the state of its economy. The millions of migrant workers that has fueled China's growth needs transportation to and from their ancestral villages.

There is a gargantuan demand for transportation in China, and even with the "binge" of construction, it is nowhere near being met.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Chinese population is far more mobile than the American population, owing to the state of its economy. The millions of migrant workers that has fueled China's growth needs transportation to and from their ancestral villages.

There is a gargantuan demand for transportation in China, and even with the "binge" of construction, it is nowhere near being met.

The transport infrastructure is going to be based around business and commuter travel - not really to/from ancestral villages which is really only a few times a year.
 

solarz

Brigadier
The transport infrastructure is going to be based around business and commuter travel - not really to/from ancestral villages which is really only a few times a year.

Maybe not to the villages themselves, but to the hub cities nearest those villages, and improved road infrastructure to the towns near those villages.

They are traveled only a few times a year right now because the trip is long and difficult. Faster trips would means more trips as well.

Easier and faster trips means more people would be willing to leave their villages to work in the cities, in turn funneling wealth from the cities into those villages, which in turn allows better infrastructure to be built in those villages.

Commuter travel is not the end-all, be-all of transport infrastructure.
 
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