Not at all, Janiz, you can post a graph like that based on facts, and the people who know about economics can chime in as to what can be done, what it means, etc... But if you post a graph like that and then say, "See? This is evidence that China's going collapse," now, you're anti-China and Gordon Changing. Samurai does indeed sound knowledgeable, but so does Gordon Chang to someone who doesn't look at the big picture. You can sound very knowledgeable picking small things, trying to interpret them to fit what you want the story to be, to an audience who wants to believe you. But in the end, is Gordon Chang right? He boldly predicted China's collapse to have happened several years ago, and then even revised to date (which has passed as well) so no, he's wrong. So based on past indicators, no matter how knowledgeable he sounds in the future, I'll know that he's probably BSing for people who don't know better and will mostly likely be wrong again. Being so wrong, so often (probably every time) and still maintaining himself as a "respected" contributor to Forbes, Gordon Chang truly taught me that people can sound very knowledgeable while being 180 degrees wrong, and I see that perfectly reflected in Samurai. This is completely aside from the fact that he entirely and obviously misinterpreted the last article he cited not even from an analytical view (because you need to at least understand the author or data before analyzing), but from the very fundamentals of reading comprehension.
I'll admit that my knowledge in many areas is rudimentary. How do I determine who's right and who's wrong? I look at the big trends. I see China's economic numbers every years so I know that no matter how knowledgeable some people may sound when they say China's economy has hit a brick wall, their narrative does not match up with the forest, though it can be manipulated to look a certain way when seeing only 1 tree. Then, this is further bolstered by the fact that I've heard many many times that China has a problem with X (inflation, labor costs, human rights, inability to innovate, etc...), which will kill its economy. Stories like this were coming out for as long as I can remember, but each time, the government has found a way to overcome the issue and get the economy growing like a teenager. So the history of trends tells me that when I hear another doomsday story about China because of a fresh new X (or an old one), it's probably going to be overcome in short order as well. So, you don't have to praise China, Janiz; that helps no one. But when you contribute, do keep in mind the big picture and make any extrapolations reasonable.
