that's cuz the state department takes into account the possibility of certain local gov of manipulating economic data to gain political capital. so a 20% growth comin in is usually reported as 15% goin out to the public.
Chinese Economics Thread
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that's cuz the state department takes into account the possibility of certain local gov of manipulating economic data to gain political capital. so a 20% growth comin in is usually reported as 15% goin out to the public.
bladerunner
Banned Idiot
Thats why I said in a earlier post that China continues to be a puzzle for a lot of commentators. I think economics unlike Maths or physics does not consist of laws or stable theories. eg today some countries are adopting a Kensey's economic model, but haven't achieved the desired results.
In New Zealand we have an economist by the name of Gareth Morgan, who runs a very good investment fund, and has articles printed in newspapers etc etc. He describes economics in simple terms so the ordinary person can understand. He also known for helping his son who dropped out of university to establish a business which sold for a billion dollars., so u can see hes not just a theorist, but has the ability to apply his knowledge , and not lost in a world of economic models. He also takes time to ride motorbikes around the world. Hes been across USA and Africa. About 3yrs ago he rode his motor bike along the ancient Silk road, trying to retrace the steps of Marco Polo from Europe to China. A lot of people listened to his reports on his adventures in China. So you can see he's not your ordinary economist.
In New Zealand we have an economist by the name of Gareth Morgan, who runs a very good investment fund, and has articles printed in newspapers etc etc. He describes economics in simple terms so the ordinary person can understand. He also known for helping his son who dropped out of university to establish a business which sold for a billion dollars., so u can see hes not just a theorist, but has the ability to apply his knowledge , and not lost in a world of economic models. He also takes time to ride motorbikes around the world. Hes been across USA and Africa. About 3yrs ago he rode his motor bike along the ancient Silk road, trying to retrace the steps of Marco Polo from Europe to China. A lot of people listened to his reports on his adventures in China. So you can see he's not your ordinary economist.
bladerunner
Banned Idiot
You have convinced me
bladerunner
Banned Idiot
Didn't Jim Rogers do that?
Whose Jim Rogers?But Gareth Morgan did it with a few motorcyclist enthusiasts, But I can only speak of Morgan as a NZder
bladerunner
Banned Idiot
I understand it can be rather foolish for a countrys central/reserve bank to try and prop up ones currency if the currency traders are against you eg Soros and the Bank of England.
Even in little old NZ. In 1987 Andy Krieger , who was a currency trader at Bankers Trust took a short position against the NZ Dollar worth hundreds of millions. His sell orders were said to have exceeded the money supply of NZ. IT was rumoured that the Govt had to ask Bankers Trust to get Kreiger to back off.
How one could cope with Chinas reserves is another question?
Coupons for low-income families effective in boosting demand in China
2009-02-09 14:40:37 Print
Special Report: Global Financial Crisis
BEIJING, Feb. 9 (Xinhua) -- Coupons issued by local governments to low-income families over the Spring Festival holidays in China are playing positive role in stimulating domestic demand, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said here on Monday.
Vice minister Jiang Zengwei said the action is "practical" and "effective" in the current situation, adding that a comprehensive social security system will also boost consumption.
Municipal governments of southern Hangzhou and southwestern Chengdu issued coupons valued at 1000 million yuan (146.3 million U.S. dollars) and 37.91 million yuan respectively for local registered low-income families before Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, following earlier government calls to extend subsidies for the needy. More cities are expected to follow the lead.
An estimated total of 380,000 residents in Chengdu were to receive coupons. Hangzhou reported a higher figure of about 580,000 that included the region's 260,000 primary school and middle school students.
The coupons, 100 to 200 yuan, can be used in local stores and supermarkets. People in Hangzhou can also use them to see movies and buy books.
Both cities reported a surge of customers in local markets during the new year holiday. Specific statistics are yet to be collected.
While specifying that coupon issuance is a temporary measure to spur domestic consumption, Jiang Zengwei with MOC stressed the importance of increasing earnings for the country's low-income families.
Long-term solutions to stimulate consumer confidence are tied to the establishment of a sound social security system, according to Jiang.
"We have been preparing for reforms in China's health care system and education scheme. Once implemented, both will help enhance consumption," Jiang said.
On Jan. 21, China's State Council, or Cabinet, passed a long-waited medical reform plan that promises to spend 850 billion yuan by 2011 to provide universal medical service to the country's1.3 billion population.
Worst Draught to face China in years.
China declares highest level of emergency for worst drought in 50 years
2009-02-05 21:33:23 Print
·China raised the drought emergency class Thursday from level 2 to level 1, the highest alert.
·President Hu and Premier Wen have ordered all-out efforts to combat the severe drought.
·Rainfall in most parts of north and central China was 50 to 80 percent less than normal.
BEIJING, Feb 5 (Xinhua) -- China raised the drought emergency class Thursday from level two to level one, the highest alert, in response to the worst drought to hit northern China in half a century, according to a State Council meeting.
Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have ordered all-out efforts to combat the severe drought in the country's vast wheat-growing area to ensure a good summer harvest, according to a State Council meeting held Thursday.
Local authorities should make drought relief work their top priority, said Vice Premier Hui Liangyu at the meeting.
People irrigate the wheat field at Xiaolu Village in Yuzhou, a city in central China's Henan Province, on Feb. 4, 2009. Henan, China's major grain producer, issued a red alert for drought on Jan. 29. The provincial meteorological bureau said the drought is the worst since 1951. The drought has affected 63 percent of the province's 5.26 million hectares of wheat. (Xinhua/Niu Shupei)
People irrigate the wheat field at Xiaolu Village in Yuzhou, a city in central China's Henan Province, on Feb. 4, 2009. Henan, China's major grain producer, issued a red alert for drought on Jan. 29. The provincial meteorological bureau said the drought is the worst since 1951. The drought has affected 63 percent of the province's 5.26 million hectares of wheat. (Xinhua/Niu Shupei)
Photo Gallery>>>
Rainfall in most parts of north and central China was 50 to 80 percent less than normal. That has affected 155 million mu (10.33 million hectares) of crops by Feb 5, data released by the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters said on Thursday.
The rare drought which began in November, has threatened 143 million mu of winter wheat, with 46.35 million mu seriously affected.
Some 4.29 million people and 2.07 million livestock lack proper drinking water, according to the data by the headquarter office.
The central government on Thursday decided to earmark another 300 million yuan (44 million U.S. dollars) as drought relief fund in additional to 100 million yuan already allocated. The fund will be used to buy agricultural machinery and other production materials.
Government at all levels should give anti-drought work a priority in an effort to stabilize grain production, increase farmers' income and ensure agricultural production, the State Council said.
Firemen help irrigate the wheat field in Luoyang, a city in central China's Henan Province, on Feb. 4, 2009. Henan, China's major grain producer, issued a red alert for drought on Jan. 29. The provincial meteorological bureau said the drought is the worst since 1951. The drought has affected 63 percent of the province's 5.26 million hectares of wheat. (Xinhua/Zhang Xiaoli)
Firemen help irrigate the wheat field in Luoyang, a city in central China's Henan Province, on Feb. 4, 2009. Henan, China's major grain producer, issued a red alert for drought on Jan. 29. The provincial meteorological bureau said the drought is the worst since 1951. The drought has affected 63 percent of the province's 5.26 million hectares of wheat. (Xinhua/Zhang Xiaoli)
Photo Gallery>>>
Relevant departments in local regions were asked to enhance farmland management, mobilize human resources, ensure technology service and enlarge irrigation areas.
Efforts should also go to build emergency water resources projects and carry out artificial precipitation to alleviate water shortage and ensure drinking water for both people and livestock. The Ministry of Water Resources also said it would enhance supervision and launch emergency plan when necessary.
Relevant departments should allocate special funds to aid poverty-stricken people in rural areas.
The Cabinet said it will send working teams to eight drought-hit provinces to discuss anti-drought procedures. The Ministry of Agriculture has already sent 12 working teams of experts to the drought-hit provinces, to instruct farmers on drought relief work.
Plant diseases and pest prevention were discussed and local governments were advised to supervise and prevent the spread of severe animal diseases.
Efforts should also be made to monitor or combat forestry fire, upgrade anti-disaster ability and avoid casualty, the State Council said.
China declares highest level of emergency for worst drought in 50 years
2009-02-05 21:33:23 Print
·China raised the drought emergency class Thursday from level 2 to level 1, the highest alert.
·President Hu and Premier Wen have ordered all-out efforts to combat the severe drought.
·Rainfall in most parts of north and central China was 50 to 80 percent less than normal.
BEIJING, Feb 5 (Xinhua) -- China raised the drought emergency class Thursday from level two to level one, the highest alert, in response to the worst drought to hit northern China in half a century, according to a State Council meeting.
Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have ordered all-out efforts to combat the severe drought in the country's vast wheat-growing area to ensure a good summer harvest, according to a State Council meeting held Thursday.
Local authorities should make drought relief work their top priority, said Vice Premier Hui Liangyu at the meeting.
People irrigate the wheat field at Xiaolu Village in Yuzhou, a city in central China's Henan Province, on Feb. 4, 2009. Henan, China's major grain producer, issued a red alert for drought on Jan. 29. The provincial meteorological bureau said the drought is the worst since 1951. The drought has affected 63 percent of the province's 5.26 million hectares of wheat. (Xinhua/Niu Shupei)
People irrigate the wheat field at Xiaolu Village in Yuzhou, a city in central China's Henan Province, on Feb. 4, 2009. Henan, China's major grain producer, issued a red alert for drought on Jan. 29. The provincial meteorological bureau said the drought is the worst since 1951. The drought has affected 63 percent of the province's 5.26 million hectares of wheat. (Xinhua/Niu Shupei)
Photo Gallery>>>
Rainfall in most parts of north and central China was 50 to 80 percent less than normal. That has affected 155 million mu (10.33 million hectares) of crops by Feb 5, data released by the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters said on Thursday.
The rare drought which began in November, has threatened 143 million mu of winter wheat, with 46.35 million mu seriously affected.
Some 4.29 million people and 2.07 million livestock lack proper drinking water, according to the data by the headquarter office.
The central government on Thursday decided to earmark another 300 million yuan (44 million U.S. dollars) as drought relief fund in additional to 100 million yuan already allocated. The fund will be used to buy agricultural machinery and other production materials.
Government at all levels should give anti-drought work a priority in an effort to stabilize grain production, increase farmers' income and ensure agricultural production, the State Council said.
Firemen help irrigate the wheat field in Luoyang, a city in central China's Henan Province, on Feb. 4, 2009. Henan, China's major grain producer, issued a red alert for drought on Jan. 29. The provincial meteorological bureau said the drought is the worst since 1951. The drought has affected 63 percent of the province's 5.26 million hectares of wheat. (Xinhua/Zhang Xiaoli)
Firemen help irrigate the wheat field in Luoyang, a city in central China's Henan Province, on Feb. 4, 2009. Henan, China's major grain producer, issued a red alert for drought on Jan. 29. The provincial meteorological bureau said the drought is the worst since 1951. The drought has affected 63 percent of the province's 5.26 million hectares of wheat. (Xinhua/Zhang Xiaoli)
Photo Gallery>>>
Relevant departments in local regions were asked to enhance farmland management, mobilize human resources, ensure technology service and enlarge irrigation areas.
Efforts should also go to build emergency water resources projects and carry out artificial precipitation to alleviate water shortage and ensure drinking water for both people and livestock. The Ministry of Water Resources also said it would enhance supervision and launch emergency plan when necessary.
Relevant departments should allocate special funds to aid poverty-stricken people in rural areas.
The Cabinet said it will send working teams to eight drought-hit provinces to discuss anti-drought procedures. The Ministry of Agriculture has already sent 12 working teams of experts to the drought-hit provinces, to instruct farmers on drought relief work.
Plant diseases and pest prevention were discussed and local governments were advised to supervise and prevent the spread of severe animal diseases.
Efforts should also be made to monitor or combat forestry fire, upgrade anti-disaster ability and avoid casualty, the State Council said.
'Taiwan Beer' on sale in China in May: report
Taiwan Beer is likely to sell at 6-10 yuans (0.88-1.46 US) a bottle, compared with 5-6 yuan for Chinese brands.
by Staff Writers
Taipei (AFP) Feb 8, 2009
Taiwan Beer, made by Taiwan's state-owned brewery, will be sold on the Chinese mainland from May, amid warming ties between the two cross-strait rivals, it was reported Sunday.
The Taiwan Tobacco and Liquor Corp said that China's State Administration for Industry and Commerce had registered its Taiwan Beer trademark and had announced this on its website, the Taipei-based Economic Daily News reported.
This means that, "Taiwan Beer will be allowed to go on sale in the mainland from May 6," the newspaper said.
The beer is expected to generate revenue of between 2.6 and 3 billion Taiwan dollars (77-88.9 million US) in China in 2009, equivalent to a one percent share of China's beer market, said Duan Wei, Taiwan Tobacco and Liquor Corp's chairman.
Initially, the company planned to target only the southeastern provinces of Fujian and Guangdong as the customers there had similar tastes to the Taiwanese, he said.
Taiwan Beer is likely to sell at 6-10 yuans (0.88-1.46 US) a bottle, compared with 5-6 yuan for Chinese brands, he said.
The company has sought to register the 63-year-old Taiwan Beer trademark in China since 1999 but the process had been stalled amid rising tensions after the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party took power in 2000.
Taiwan and China split in 1949 after a civil war but Beijing still considers the island to be part of its territory and has threatened to invade should it declare independence.
Ties have improved dramatically since the Kuomintang's China-friendly President Ma Ying-jeou took office in May, promising to boost cross-strait trade and tourism links.
In December the two sides launched direct daily flights, and postal and shipping services in a historic move hailed by both sides as cementing a new era in warm ties.
Separately, Taiwan's Kinmen Distillery plans to build its mainland headquarters in Xiamen at a cost of 18 million US dollars, as part of efforts to tap the mainland's vast wine market, the Economic Daily News said. Kinmen currently operates agencies in 15 Chinese provinces and cities.
Laid-off China migrants seek Plan B
Migrant worker Zhong Yan. Image courtesy of Peter Parks and AFP.
by Staff Writers
Zhugao, China (AFP) Feb 8, 2009
When migrant worker Zhong Yan lost her job in southern China amid the implosion of the country's manufacturing sector, she wasted no time coming up with a Plan B.
Zhong, 26, returned home to rural Sichuan province in December and plunged into China's now perilous business waters, opening a small clothing shop with her savings and a new government credit line for peasant businesses.
"My hope is that business will be good enough to eventually expand. But if I can just support my self, that's good enough," said Zhong, who was laid off in November after eight years with an embroidery company in Guangdong province.
As China confronts the reality of millions of job lost due to the world economic downturn, the success or failure of people like Zhong could determine whether the country can avoid a full-blown economic and social crisis.
The government is frantically pulling an array of policy levers, including new business loans and a massive retraining push, in a bid to keep people earning money.
Zhong utilised a 5,000-yuan (730-dollar) government credit line and 20,000 yuan of her savings to open her Cool Lulu fashion store here in Zhugao, a poor Sichuan farming town.
But merely keeping the store open in a poor town dependent on remittances from migrants will be tough.
At least 20 million migrant workers have been left jobless due to the economic crisis, the government said last week as it warned of possible social unrest.
Sichuan is a major source of China's estimated 130 million migrant workers. But with the well-trodden path to distant factories on the coast a dead end for many, they are seeking other ways to survive.
Some hold out hope that new jobs closer to home will be created by a 586-billion-dollar stimulus plan focused on infrastructure development announced in November.
In Sichuan, many expect work on reconstruction from last May's devastating earthquake.
In the provincial capital of Chengdu 90 minutes' drive from Zhugao, authorities are handing out 11 million dollars to various organisations that can provide free skills training to jobless peasants, many of them illiterate.
Former migrant Ma Jingmei's family lost a vital lifeline when her husband recently lost his job outside Sichuan.
She is now one of an increasing number of jobless migrants on a free one-month course to become a nanny.
Run by a Chengdu maternity services provider, the hardy peasant women are taught to forget the rough upbringing of the villages and instructed in the finer points of subjects like baby massage.
"The head is most important, it will make the baby smarter," an instructor asserts as Ma, 36, and her bemused fellow students massage baby dolls on desks in a classroom.
Forsaking a now-fruitless search for work on the other side of China, Ma hopes for a job near Chengdu as a nanny that will pay between 1,000 and 3,000 yuan per month to help support her family in Dayi, a farming village in Sichuan's countryside.
"The impact of the crisis has been huge. With no definite breadwinner now we can't support our children and parents, especially as our parents get older and have more health problems," she said.
"I have to find some way to make money or we can't subsist."
Helping migrants land on their feet in poor rural areas is one of the biggest challenges China's leaders face in years.
But China will need to do much more than it has, said Stephen Green, chief of China research at Standard Chartered Bank.
Noting that most migrants lack a sufficient social safety net, he expressed hope the government would greatly increase social welfare spending in the central budget put to the legislature next month.
"But with the steps China has taken so far, there is no way they can replace jobs on the scale that they are being lost," he said.
Nevertheless, Xia Wanzhong saw today's troubles as a blessing as he strolled a chilly Zhugao street with his tightly bundled daughter Lei Lei, four, to buy vegetables.
Xia, 32, toiled eight years in a southern China factory until it folded last year, seeing Lei Lei a total of 12 weeks in her whole life.
"If I can find work in Chengdu, I could see her every month. We will find a way," he said with a smile.