Chinese Economics Thread

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Guys, last chance.

STOP the ideological/political posts and rhetoric.

We do not need to comment on the bad behavior of a few individuals posting comments on some Yahoo article, and then project that behavior onto entire nations and people.

Comment on source articles...but make sure you do not post pure political OpEds as source articles as well (that was nt the case here, but has happened on other threads).

There is going to be a spat of suspensions from SD if this does not stop soo.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
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It's a pretty long article but you can read the rest here:
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Here are some of my thoughts on some of the most pertinent parts from that article.

As top leaders met at a lush Bali resort in October 2013, President Xi Jinping of
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described his vision for a new multinational, multibillion-dollar bank to finance roads, rails and power grids across Asia. Under Chinese stewardship, the bank would tackle the slow development in poor countries that was holding the region back from becoming the wealth center of the world.

Afterward, the United States secretary of state, John Kerry, caught up with Mr. Xi in the corridor. “That’s a great idea,” Mr. Kerry said of the bank, according to Chinese and American aides briefed on the encounter.

Its undeniable that the AIIB is a great idea, as Kerry's initial reaction shows. The problem is

The new bank “is an instrument for China to lend legitimacy to its international forays and to extend its sphere of economic and political influence even while changing the rules of the game,” said Eswar Prasad

That there is the key reason America expended so much diplomatic capital trying to kill off the Bank, all the other reasons are just cover as they couldn't well come out and give this as the reason.

The Chinese-led institution, the
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, is now in the process of picking its first projects. The choices, expected to be announced in coming months, will provide insight into how China plans to wield its power.

Either China is serious about taking a leadership role in the global economy and prioritizing projects that broadly benefit Asia, or it plans to use the bank as a conduit to further its own ambitions.

Notice the subtle spin and carefully planted loaded idea in the readers minds - either China has to make purely altruistic investments that does not benefit it in any way shape or form, or if China benefits at all from the AIIB's choices for investment, its a sham!

That is a totally unreasonable and absurd requirement. You would have to be living in loony land to think the West does not derive real solid, tangible benefits from the work of the IMF and World Bank.

The fact of the matter is that every investment decision made by the likes of IMF, World Bank, and yes, AIIB, will be a balance between the private national invests of key investors, and the benefit the investments will bring to others.

It has never been, and never ever will be a binary, mutually exclusive choice between prioritising development or furthering the aims and ambitions of key shareholders. Every investment choice made by all such institutions will wish to maximise both.

Either the author is a dreamy idealist who has no idea what he is talking about, and/or he is setting an unreasonably unattainable high bar for "good governance" so that he could come back and present as evidence of sinister Chinese motives when the AIIB inevitably fails to meet those impossible requirements he has set.

But China is hardly yielding control, raising concerns about where the bank will land on issues like climate change and labor rights. The bank, for example, is still weighing whether to approve coal-fired power plants.

Another example of a lack of knowledge and/or unreasonable target setting.

Modern clean coal power plants like what China is now building are actually very clean. Funding and building such plants would help improve environmental damage across the board if it means older, dirtier and more polluting plants could be shut down and replaced by the new ones.

To corral vastly disparate countries, China knew it needed to look beyond its usual slate of Communist officials, an often-insular group.

They turned to Mr. Jin, an economist fluent in English who had worked at the World Bank in the 1980s and served as China’s first vice president at the Asian Development Bank. A former chairman at China’s
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, Mr. Jin had a passion for Shakespeare and the Australian novelist Patrick White.

Nice bit of stereotype creation/reinforcement while laying the groundwork for the west to take credit if the AIIB does well later.

The deputy national security adviser for international economics, Caroline Atkinson, who headed a series of high-level meetings on the bank

Another sign that the US views the AIIB primarily through the prism of geopolitics rather than on soft and fluffy grounds the State Department publically states as its main concern with the bank.

Behind the public argument lay deep suspicions about China’s real goal. China’s economic clout in Asia was strengthening yearly, and there were fears that Beijing would use the bank as another tool to project its influence.

The China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China already financed big-ticket projects in Asia and Africa. By Chinese estimates, their combined overseas assets stood at $500 billion, more than the combined capital of the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

And how much abuses of power and influence did China commit using that $500bn leverage?

If anything, such a large existing international investment portfolio by purely Chinese banks without the sort of abuses claimed the West fears should be evidence to help ease American "concerns" about the AIIB. Yet here, it is used as an example of support American suspicion. Nice bit of logic inversion.

“He was encouraging us to be more positive,” the official involved in the administration’s deliberations said. “He was saying, ‘You can be an ombudsman on transparency,’” meaning that the United States could measure the bank on its standards and make its findings public.

But the National Security Council hung tough. “I am not going to buy the cake you have cooked,” Evan S. Medeiros, the council’s senior adviser on China, said, according to a person with knowledge of the conversation.

To which Mr. Jin replied: “You are always welcome into the kitchen to help with the baking.”

I think that passage speaks volumes about the different mentality and attitudes involved.

China has being extraordinarily encouraging and accommodating and got nothing but hostility back. You would have to have the patience of a saint not to be offended and annoyed but such treatment. And this is a perfect microcosm of the broader US-China interactions across the board.
 
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Blackstone

Brigadier
Sino-American relations might change for the better, because the vast majority of ex-US officials willing to comment on AIIB said it was a mistake for the Obama Administration to oppose it. Maybe it will result in more measured foreign policy initiatives by Obama. Maybe.
 

Qi_1528

New Member
Registered Member
Sino-American relations might change for the better, because the vast majority of ex-US officials willing to comment on AIIB said it was a mistake for the Obama Administration to oppose it. Maybe it will result in more measured foreign policy initiatives by Obama. Maybe.

It's a fair bet that the U.S. will come to accept, and even embrace, China's rise in the longer term. If for no other reason than the fact that the scale of the Chinese economy and market will make it impossible not to come terms with it out of pure self interest (I believe the same thing will happen with regard to Hong Kong and Taiwan, but that's another discussion). Most of the major countries in Europe are already heading in that direction, to their credit.

However, I can't see Obama, or even the next two or three presidents, calming down too much. This period where China is economically strong, but still only part way through its rise, while America still wants to view itself as number one, is arguably the most dangerous. The next ten to 15 years is when a war will be most likely to start. I'll only relax once my generation (I was born in '89) begins to take the reigns of power. We've been growing up becoming used to the reality of China as a strong and rich country, worthy of a place at the table. And it helps that a growing number of us feel the need to understand Asian history and culture without so much of the orientalist rubbish of the past.

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BEIJING, Dec. 5 (Xinhua) -- With the stock market turmoil spooking global investors, a slowing economy looking for new sources of growth and looming uncertainties both at home and abroad, this year has been challenging for China's policy makers.

It won't be less challenging for the year ahead as the country continues managing the slowdown while proceeding with reforms and curbing growing risks.

In his latest comment about the economic performance this week, Premier
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said the economy is moving within a reasonable range, and the country will maintain reforms to ensure steady economic growth.

The economic growth is poised to post its weakest rate in a quarter of a century this year and widely expected to grind lower in 2016. Stabilizing growth will be high on the agenda for the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, in which the government outlines the growth blueprint for the year ahead.

The economy grew 6.9 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace since the global financial crisis, prompting the central bank to cut interest rates for six times in nearly a year.

Besides monetary easing, the government has been expanding fiscal spending to support infrastructure investment in an effort to put a floor under the slowing economy.

China has been pursuing reforms to steer toward a growth model based on stronger domestic demand, innovation and private sector instead of over-reliance on trade and credit expansion.

Reforms have targeted a wide range of issues, including a troubled property sector, non-performing loans at banks, corruption, pollution and overcapacity in many industries, as well as efforts to make its currency, the yuan, more accepted worldwide.

Some signs are emerging that the economic transformation is gradually taking hold. Consumption's share of the
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is growing and the service sector is now bigger than the manufacturing sector as a percentage of GDP. Although consumption growth has slowed in the weakened economy, it has fallen much less than investment. Most important, innovation is booming.

However, as economic growth has slowed, there has been concern whether the resolve to pursue those reforms would fall by the wayside.

To soothe such concerns, Chinese leaders have repeatedly stated that the moderation in growth is a desired outcome of reforms. "I would otherwise be worried whether the reforms were working as intended," Li wrote in an article published in the Economist magazine.

Li called 2016 "a year of reform," saying "structural reform featuring entrepreneurship and innovation, greater openness and win-win international cooperation" will be priorities for 2016 and beyond.

Wang Tao, a UBS economist, said in 2016, the government is unlikely to deliver a massive stimulus package. Instead, "it will continue targeted support through fiscal and infrastructure measures, and accelerate structural reforms to unlock new sources of growth and support consumption"

Besides structural reform, the government will unveil reform policies to reduce excess capacity, enterprises' financing costs and a housing market oversupply as well as prevent financial sector risks, said Yang Weimin, vice minister of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Finance and Economic Affairs.

As China presses ahead with market-based reforms, enhancement of risk management becomes crucial as they bring both unprecedented opportunities and growing risks that demanded tougher safeguards, economists said.

Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, said minimizing financial risk will be a key challenge for China over the period covered by its new Five-year Plan and the success of financial reform hinges on stability in the sector.

Zhou called for a mechanism to be put in place to monitor and counter risks, and for better regulations against money laundering and terrorism financing.

It will be the "biggest success" of the next few years to evade any systematic risk and thus risk control should be attached equal importance as maintaining growth and advancing structural reform, said Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center.

Nevertheless, China will stick to its opening-up in the financial arena, allowing foreign investments to enter more industries such as banking, securities and insurance, Zhou said.

There are a couple positives I take out of this article, and others like it I've seen in the Chinese media.

1. It shows the central government understands the problems facing the Chinese economy at the moment.

2. It also shows understanding that opening up carries risks which require regulation to maintain relative stability.

One of the problems evident in the West is that wholesale privatisation, and near total deregulation, have brought out the worst of capitalism. The last 30 years have proven the notion that the economy will always "naturally" return to a state of equilibrium completely wrong. Equilibrium has to be imposed by laws and regulation. The debate should be over what the correct regulatory settings are, and the not the need for regulation itself. It heartens me to see that the apparent dominant view in Chinese policy making circles understands this. I've been afraid that the authorities would copy Western policy rather than learn from it.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
China Surpasses Japan as Asia's Top High-Tech Exporter, ADB Says

  • China accounts for 43.7% of Asia's exports of high-tech goods
  • China also leads in exports of low-tech goods with 55.4% share
China has brought to an end Japan’s dominance of Asia’s high-technology exports, according to the Asian Development Bank.

China’s share of Asia’s exports of high-tech goods such as medical instruments, and aircraft and telecommunications equipment rose to 43.7 percent in 2014 from 9.4 percent in 2000, the ADB said. Japan’s share slid to 7.7 percent last year from 25.5 percent in 2000. Southeast Asian nations including Malaysia and Philippines also lost market share.

The shift marks China’s success in boosting innovation and technology as key drivers of its economy as it seeks to move up the manufacturing value chain. Low-tech goods accounted for 28 percent of China’s exports in 2014, compared with 41 percent in 2000, according to ADB’s Asian Economic Integration Report 2015 released Tuesday.


"China has made inroads in taking more and more hi-tech manufacturing onshore even as a lot of critical components are still imported from other countries," said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. "It’s becoming highly competitive, with highly skilled labor and we’re seeing increasing research and development moving into China."

China-Made Drones
China-made drones, smart phones, and even high-speed trains have become internationally competitive and the number of enterprises in the high-tech manufacturing sector has tripled to almost 30,000 from less than 10,000 in 2000, Shang-Jin Wei, ADB chief economist, said in an e-mail.

“We are seeing some signs of success in some industries,” he said. “But China is still not a global technology leader like the United States or Germany. What we are seeing is that China is catching up very fast on the ’standard technology’ products and is beginning to do some innovations of its own.”

China also leads in exports of low-tech goods such as textiles, food and beverages, and wood, pulp and paper products. It had a 55.4 percent market share in 2014, followed by India with 9.4 percent.


Cross-border production networks -- trade in parts and components and final assembly -- have strengthened regional interdependence, as seen from increasing intraregional trade shares, the ADB said. Asia’s intraregional gross exports have increased about 3.6 times from 2000 to 2011, it said.

Economic Zones
Special economic zones can be a driving force for increased trade, investment, and economic reform in Asia at a time when the region is experiencing a slowdown in trade, provided the right business environments and policies are put in place, the ADB said. In developing Asia, countries with economic zones attract significantly more foreign direct investment, corresponding to 82 percent greater FDI levels, it said.

Separately, while the impending increase in U.S. interest rates could raise capital flow volatility, it is not expected to rattle the region’s markets as it did in 2013, the report said. Still, managing potentially volatile capital outflows remains an important issue for the region -- especially given rising risk premiums and depreciating currencies, it said.

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a1a2a3a4a5a6a

New Member
Registered Member
'Made in China 2025' plan unveiled

BEIJING - China's State Council has unveiled a national plan, dubbed "Made in China 2025," focusing on promoting manufacturing, a notice said on Tuesday.

The plan was authorized by Premier Li Keqiang, according to the notice.

"Made in China 2025" is the first 10-year action plan designed to transform China from a manufacturing giant into a world manufacturing power.

The 10-year plan will be followed by another two plans in order to transform China into a leading manufacturing power by the year 2049, which will be the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

Nine tasks have been identified as priorities: improving manufacturing innovation, integrating information technology and industry, strengthening the industrial base, fostering Chinese brands, enforcing green manufacturing, promoting breakthroughs in 10 key sectors, advancing restructuring of the manufacturing sector, promoting service-oriented manufacturing and manufacturing-related service industries, and internationalizing manufacturing.

The 10 key sectors are new information technology, numerical control tools and robotics, aerospace equipment, ocean engineering equipment and high-tech ships, railway equipment, energy saving and new energy vehicles, power equipment, new materials, biological medicine and medical devices, and agricultural machinery.

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