Chinese Economics Thread

[manqiangrexue]

The problem was introducing the policy in a mainly rural society with strong male preference. It was bound to cause a gender imbalance.

Well we didn't wanna end up like India with too many mouths to feed, putting all of our output into food and sustainance. And the result is undeniable that we indeed did not end up like India. It's a worthy sacrifice.

Sure parents who did engage in these atrocious acts are responsible but so is the leadership who devised the programme without assessing the material conditions of their own people.

No, the government makes the law. When the people break the law, they cause problems because they failed to heed the government's words. That is the opposite of the government's fault. Even if they did assess the culture and material conditions, the conclusion was to either harshly regulate to reduce the gender skew towards males or to not undertake population control and... end up like India. I'll take the former any day.

They fell for stupid western neo-malthusian ideas regarding "too many orientals" and rushed into this,

No, you fell for stupid Western takes on China, while looking up to China as a nation that yours should strive to catch up to.

there is no defending OCP.

What is OCP? You mean CCP? At the end of WWII, China was worse off than India in every way. India guzzled down Western democracy slop while China maintained its own discipline and shaped its population according to what it deemed necessary. Today, China is a nation that crushed the US in 2 trade wars and a tech war with the strongest economy in the world, fastest growing tech, and even a military that America fears. Indians, on the other hand, are having a hard time deciding between going back to India or just killing themselves if America revokes their H1B. The CCP is defended by facts and results; there is no defending India.

 

[Nevermore]

I don't want to dwell too much on demographic issues in this post. But regarding family planning, if China hadn't implemented it, the current young population would be several times larger, and youth employment would be far worse. Even now, China can't create more high-quality jobs. One could argue that China's full relaxation of family planning came somewhat late. More crucially, however, the Chinese Communist Party anticipated that lifting restrictions would cause the fertility rate to rebound rapidly to around 1.6. The reality, however, is that the fertility rate has turned downward and shows no signs of reversing. China is now effectively compensating for and learning from this experience—namely, why it failed to anticipate such a rapid decline in fertility and the immense difficulty in reversing it. Remediation is inherently difficult and cannot be achieved overnight. Hence, many observe China pursuing a path of "left-leaning accelerationism"—replacing scarce labor with cutting-edge technology and substituting sweatshop workers with lab engineers. This approach partially offsets the negative pressures from declining total population and deteriorating demographic structure. Yet we all recognize that an aging future remains profoundly challenging, while population recovery demands a much longer-term perspective.

 

[2handedswordsman]

I don't want to dwell too much on demographic issues in this post. But regarding family planning, if China hadn't implemented it, the current young population would be several times larger, and youth employment would be far worse. Even now, China can't create more high-quality jobs. One could argue that China's full relaxation of family planning came somewhat late. More crucially, however, the Chinese Communist Party anticipated that lifting restrictions would cause the fertility rate to rebound rapidly to around 1.6. The reality, however, is that the fertility rate has turned downward and shows no signs of reversing. China is now effectively compensating for and learning from this experience—namely, why it failed to anticipate such a rapid decline in fertility and the immense difficulty in reversing it. Remediation is inherently difficult and cannot be achieved overnight. Hence, many observe China pursuing a path of "left-leaning accelerationism"—replacing scarce labor with cutting-edge technology and substituting sweatshop workers with lab engineers. This approach partially offsets the negative pressures from declining total population and deteriorating demographic structure. Yet we all recognize that an aging future remains profoundly challenging, while population recovery demands a much longer-term perspective.

The topic is somewhat deeper. Have in mind that big families occure in harsh conditions, difficult times, where the survival of a community is in stake, because communities want hands for work not just kids to have fun. Poor people do not afford to make big families but they have to if they want to survive. With all of what this means about modern societies.

 

[didklmyself]

Well we didn't wanna end up like India with too many mouths to feed, putting all of our output into food and sustainance. And the result is undeniable that we indeed did not end up like India. It's a worthy sacrifice.

China's population is 1.408B, India's population is 1.46B. There isn't much difference, yet PRC has been able to feed, provide and educated its citizens better than India. No, the lives lost due to a botched policy are not "worthy sacrifice", you have absolute no authority to decide which life is to be sacrified or not, particularly a child's.

No, the government makes the law. When the people break the law, they cause problems because they failed to heed the government's words. That is the opposite of the government's fault. Even if they did assess the culture and material conditions, the conclusion was to either harshly regulate to reduce the gender skew towards males or to not undertake population control and... end up like India. I'll take the former any day.

When people break the law they do cause problems. It's the reason why an important part of law making is making sure that conditions are right for the proper effects to take place.

No, it wasn't either population control or none at all - TFR in 79' was 2.79, it fell from 5.81 in 1970, this was without OCP.

Funny how you keep making comparison with India when the population is almost similar. No, you would not have been India.

No, you fell for stupid Western takes on China, while looking up to China as a nation that yours should strive to catch up to.

No, the party leadership fell for neo-malthusian takes coming out the west, during the same time, regarding too many Chinamen.

Yes, China is a nation that should be looked up to - looking up to a nation does not mean ignoring or not correcting the mistakes made by that nation.

What is OCP? You mean CCP? At the end of WWII, China was worse off than India in every way. India guzzled down Western democracy slop while China maintained its own discipline and shaped its population according to what it deemed necessary. Today, China is a nation that crushed the US in 2 trade wars and a tech war with the strongest economy in the world, fastest growing tech, and even a military that America fears. Indians, on the other hand, are having a hard time deciding between going back to India or just killing themselves if America revokes their H1B. The CCP is defended by facts and results; there is no defending India.

OCP - One Child Policy.

Yes, India was relatively better than China post-ww2. No, western democracy wasn't just some "slop". They were ahead in everything and our founders were keen on applying their principles to govern their compatriots. Yes, China maintained its own discipline and moved ahead and has indeed out competed the US in trade and tech wars.
How does all this relate to OCP? Current China is only because you implemented a botched population control policy?

No, Indians are not having a hard time deciding going back to India or killing themselves. Sure, H1 b hurts but no one is killing themselves over it, get your head our of reddit and twitter.

The CCP is defended by facts and so is the Indian Republic. Problems exist? Yes,they are being fixed. Slow? Yes, unfortunately.

It's absolutely alright to get outcompeted, no need to commit seppuko over it. We Indians are here for quite a while and will remain here, had our ups and downs. History isn't ending anytime soon... we will make it. Of couse, we all wish for better life - not having it at the moment isn't something to be killing oneself about.

I am not going to continue this discussion since this a wrong thread and I have to sleep, its fucking 2AM here.

 

[2handedswordsman]

No, you would not have been India.

Yes, China could be 2,5 billion rn

 

[slime888]

What's the extent of the backlash against this K-Visa so far? Significant enough to gain the Gov's attention?

 

[Eventine]

And here the discussion is going to turn into a massive pile of horseshit regarding demographics and how certain races of people are inferior to others... How many times are you people going to have the same discussion?

As many times as it takes to get the message through.

Honestly, most of the people here are aware of the fundamental flaws of liberal philosophy, so much so that we are bearing witness to a truly historic moment of popular rebellion and renunciation in the heartland of liberalism itself (the US-led West). The brutality of institutions like the ICE is only matched by the relative indifference (and even support) of American citizens - clearly, the narrative has shifted.

Snickering and laughing at Western liberals for their naïveté, while bending backwards to justify the same ideology from certain segments of the Chinese leadership, is both hypocritical and self defeating.

If we think the US was wrong to drink its own liberal Kool-Aid, then certainly the same is true of China.

Demographics cannot be ignored or sneered at as though it’s something that doesn’t matter, like liberals pretend. Demographics are fundamental to human society (and therefore, economics, culture, national development, politics, technology, etc.) and mismanagement of demographics is among the worst mistakes a society can make. If there is one thing that could put an end to the restoration of China's "historical place," it is demographics.

 

[Michael90]

China should just focus on her own population. I think the K-visa issue is an unnecessary risk the party is taking which her people will be dissastisfied with. East Asian countries are very homogenous and anti migration. So the government should keep it that way. maybe a few decades from now when China's population has declined enough and ageing population has caused enough strained on the country, then maybe they can consider relaxing visas for workers since there will be shortages in some sectors, but until then its uneccessary to take this risk now. Once China is facing Japans current situation then it will be easier to justify this to her people.

 

[Michael90]

As many times as it takes to get the message through.

Honestly, most of the people here are aware of the fundamental flaws of liberal philosophy, so much so that we are bearing witness to a truly historic moment of popular rebellion and renunciation in the heartland of liberalism itself (the US-led West).

Snickering and laughing at Western liberals for their naïveté, while bending backwards to justify the same ideology from certain segments of the Chinese leadership, is both hypocritical and self defeating.

If we think the US was wrong to drink its own liberal Kool-Aid, then certainly the same is true of China.

Demographics cannot be ignored or sneered at as though it’s something that doesn’t matter, like liberals pretend. Demographics is fundamental to human society and mismanagement of demographics is among the worst mistakes a society can make.

I don't think China will be facing a demographic invasion any time soon. even if you opened your borders. lol for one there is the langauge barrier which is a huge thing, secondly China is an alien civilisation for most of the world(apart from your East and some SEA neighbours), plus China is still the world second most populous country on earth with about 1.4 billion people(for perspective, that's about same as Africa's entire population), So even if 3 million foreigners moved to China that's like throwing a stone into the Ocean. lol In fact i believe there will always be more Chinese immigrants living outside China than there will be foreigners living in China. So i don't think you Chinese should be worried.

According to figures i checked there are barely over 900,000 foreigners nationals living in China (that's nothing. lol) that's the latest official figure available in 2020, i dont' think it would have changed by much in 5 years. but there are over 40 million chinese living outside China(this includes children of chinese immigrants though), but 10.5 million chinese born in china live overseas. So i don't think China should worry much about immigration.

 

[Eventine]

I don't think China will be facing a demographic invasion any time soon. even if you opened your borders. lol for one there is the langauge barrier which is a huge thing, secondly China is an alien civilisation for most of the world(apart from your East and some SEA neighbours), plus China is still the world second most populous country on earth with about 1.4 billion people(for perspective, that's about same as Africa's entire population), So even if 3 million foreigners moved to China that's like throwing a stone into the Ocean. lol In fact i believe there will always be more Chinese immigrants living outside China than there will be foreigners living in China. So i don't think you Chinese should be worried.

According to figures i checked there are barely over 900,000 foreigners nationals living in China (that's nothing. lol) that's the latest official figure available in 2020, i dont' think it would have changed by much in 5 years. but there are over 40 million chinese living outside China(this includes children of chinese immigrants though), but 10.5 million chinese born in china live overseas. So i don't think China should worry much about immigration.

I'm not worried about the effects of the immediate policy. I'm more concerned about the underlying philosophy it represents.

The policy of importing a lot of foreigners to do some specific type of work, that is perceived to be a gap in the native population, is not alien to Chinese history. Both times it happened, the outcome wasn't great (mentioned this else where so not going to repeat it, but basically "Five Barbarians" and "An Lushan Rebellion").

Of course, the numbers of people involved were much greater as a % of the population back then, but it shows that even with presumably culturally compatible Northeast Asian people who can "blend" into the population, China's record for peaceful assimilation wasn't great.

Chinese policy makers should not get high on the idea that China or Chinese culture has some unique ability to assimilate foreigners.

Americans thought that, until they didn't.