Chinese Economics Thread

Rank Amateur

Rank Amateur

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tphuang said:
I put together a substack on what I believe is a very interesting trend. First brought attention to me from Molson Hart and I see this as quite evident now. China has really moved into design. The problems facing the Western model for China is here when China is no longer just exporting foreign designed products to Western markets, but also taking over the design part of it. It's been a case from past 4 or 5 years

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Very nice piece. As I read your observations of China expanding from manufacturing/assembly to design/IP and marketing/branding, I thought: Hey, that's China moving up the left and right sides of the "smile curve" -- precisely as advocated by people such as Eric X. Li.
 
sunnymaxi

sunnymaxi

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China adds nearly 2 million private firms in first quarter as calls for support rise​

Top market regulator says 40 per cent of business registrations from January-March were in emerging sectors and new technologies​


The number of newly established private companies in China grew by 7.1 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, in what is being seen as a sign of resilience as the private sector bears the brunt of the fallout from the US-China trade war.

Nearly 1.98 million private firms were registered in the first three months of the year – a growth pace higher than the average in the past three years, China’s top market regulator announced on Monday.


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escobar

escobar

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Unpredictable US policy fuels PC makers' continued departure from China
Data from DIGITIMES Research indicates that among the top six PC brands, HP and Dell have made the most significant progress in shifting production outside of China. By the end of the first quarter of 2025, 30.4% of HP's notebooks and 34.5% of Dell's were produced outside of China. In contrast, Lenovo stood at a mere 0.9%, while Apple, Acer, and Asus reported 0% production outside of China, meaning they remain entirely reliant on Chinese manufacturing. Following the imposition of tariffs, the pace of diversification has accelerated.
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Projections for the second quarter of 2025 show HP's and Dell's non-China production shares rising to 34% and 38%, respectively. Lenovo, Acer, and Asus are also expected to see increases of 8.5%, 5.5%, and 5%. Apple remains in the transition phase, with its non-China production share still at 0%. Industry sources anticipate that PC brands will retain some production capacity in China to serve the domestic Chinese market and other non-US regions. However, some supply chain insiders suggest that the production volume remaining in China for US brands could be lower than initially expected, with some potentially moving as much as 70% of their capacity out of China entirely.
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PC brands point out that beyond tariffs on US-bound products, a growing number of European nations are also requesting production outside of China, driven by diplomatic and national security considerations. This trend suggests that the proportion of notebooks manufactured in China could fall below 50%, potentially even reaching as low as 30%. Nevertheless, some ODMs caution that it is still too early to definitively predict these proportions due to numerous variables and the limited profit margins in the consumer PC market. They are currently focused on managing the immediate demands of clients actively relocating production and are not yet able to precisely forecast the long-term distribution of orders.
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