Chinese Economics Thread

S

Serb

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You can't fake this kind of encompassing manufacturing ascension.



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Quarterly Manufacturing GDP
QuarterManufacturing GDP (RMB trillion)Percent of Total GDP (%)
Q3 202412.483237.20
Q2 20248.654426.99
Q1 20248.014327.04
Q4 20238.85425.45
Q3 20248.327226.02
Q2 20238.507927.62
Q1 20237.956727.92
Source: National Bureau of Statistics; China Briefing


Monthly Growth in Manufacturing Added Value
MonthYear-on-Year Growth (%)
Nov 20245.4
Oct 20245.3
Sep 20245.4
Aug 20244.5
Jul 20245.3
Jun 20245.5
May 20246
Apr 20247.5
Mar 20245.1
Jan to Feb 20247.1
Source: National Bureau of Statistics


Industrial Export Delivery Value
MonthExport Value (RMB Billion)Year-on-Year Growth (%)
Nov 20241.35567.4
Oct 20241.34383.7
Sep 20241.40993.4
Aug 20241299.46.4
Jul 20241278.56.4
Jun 20241317.53.8
May 20241257.14.6
Apr 20241232.87.3
Mar 20241267.11.4
Jan to Feb 20242146.60.4
Source: National Bureau of Statistics


Growth in Manufacturing Fixed Asset Investment
MonthPercent Growth (%)
Nov 20249.3
Oct 20249.3
Sep 202412.3
Aug 20249.1
Jul 20249.3
Jun 20249.5
May 20249.6
Apr 20249.7
Mar 20249.9
Jan – Feb 20249.4
Source: National Bureau of Statistics


Urban Annual Average Wages in Private and Non-Private Manufacturing Sector
PrivatePublic
YearSalary (RMB)Growth Rate (%)Salary (RMB)Growth Rate (%)
202371,7626.5103,9326.6
202267,3525.397,5285.5
202163,94610.492,45911.7
202057,9109.682,7835.9
Source: National Bureau of Statistics







The only things that I think were more neutral were FDI and PMI (not that important IMO).

PMI measures the prophecies, whereas this measures the final product,

Also, FDI is quite erratic when measured monthly. So I didn't put them here.
 
Z

zbb

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S

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
China discovered new copper ore reserves of more than 20 million tons in total in Tibetan Plateau, with the potential to push up to 150 millions. It is not mentioned how difficult it will be to mine these ores though.

At a smaller scale, deep down an existing copper mine in Heilongjiang, 3.65 million tons of new copper ores are also discovered recently.

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记者从自然资源部中国地质调查局获悉，我国在青藏高原取得找矿重大突破，新发现铜矿资源量2000余万吨。

据介绍，在青藏高原形成了玉龙、多龙、巨龙－甲玛和雄村-朱诺四个千万吨级的铜矿资源基地，预测资源潜力达1.5亿吨，青藏高原有望成为世界级铜资源基地。

此外，黑龙江多宝山铜矿深部也新增铜资源量365万吨，该轮铜矿找矿成果将显著提升我国铜资源保障能力。
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Sinnavuuty said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1847241028128125095

Having government debt (central and local) reach as high as 56.1% of GDP (GDP of +US$18 trillion) doesn’t actually seem as bad as it was once thought. Even if such numbers were even higher, because most Western copiums are claiming that the CCP data is unreliable, BeijingDai still begs the big question: how much of this debt is “backed” by actual infrastructure assets that were created by issuing this debt?

I once read a very good book that highlighted the "Singapore Model". The book gave a good introduction to this model adopted by Singapore, stating that the debt issued is always to build assets that create value and generate returns for society and consequently for the country's economic growth and development. Singapore did not issue debt to finance current government spending; the debt issued was always tied to infrastructure investments.

Singapore has an even higher debt proportionally than the US, but no one talks about it and there is a reason:

Because the country is a net creditor with
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net debt. The Singapore government has a strong balance sheet with assets well above its liabilities. This is why international credit rating agencies such as Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poors give Singapore the highest short-term and long-term credit ratings of AAA. This is not only due to the asset generated by the debt, but also to the large international reserves and the fact that it has one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world.

Public debt is used to invest in infrastructure such as ports, airports, highways and roads, and when completed, they are assets that have an intrinsic value. Therefore, Singapore does not borrow to use for current expenses but rather to build assets, all of its debt is tied to an asset of equal or greater value.

Gross debt - the value of the assets = low net debt, so they do not pay as much interest because there is a collateral asset.

I had a friend who visited Singapore a decade ago, he said that 82% of the population there lives in public housing where they rent or buy these apartments, where the government has built thousands of public residential apartment buildings.

Given the way China at the beginning of the reopening saw Singapore as a
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, China could have used this "Singapore Model" and adapted it to its continental conditions. It would be extremely difficult for China to fully replicate the "Singapore Model", but the way in which debt is issued to build tangible and real assets that will provide returns to society is one of the foundations for Chinese development, which explains why even if China's debt were higher, it is being built on real assets, therefore obtaining a lower net debt if calculating debt minus asset value.
Click to expand...
An example:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1875914031820902740

Linked to Chinese HSR system
 
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